Riskgaming

Josh Zoffer, a principal at Clocktower Ventures and former assistant to President Biden on economic policy, joins the discussion. He dives into the current market volatility driven by trade tariffs and globalization. The conversation highlights the need for innovation and strategic investments in American manufacturing. Zoffer emphasizes the importance of reshaping trade practices and tackling cultural barriers that hinder industrial growth. The trio also explores how government support can boost domestic production and foster a resilient workforce for future technologies.

Neil Thomas, a Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute focusing on China's elite politics, and Kate Logan, the director of the China Climate Hub, delve into the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war. They discuss lessons from China's manufacturing rise and highlight the necessity for U.S. adaptation in a competitive environment. The duo emphasizes the importance of processing information overload and strategic partnerships in navigating the complexities of trade. Additionally, they explore the intersection of climate change and economic rivalry, urging a collaborative approach to global challenges.

Colin P. Clarke, Director of Research at The Soufan Group and former RAND terrorism analyst, dives into the duality of technology in modern chaos. He discusses how AI and drones can empower creativity but also arm extremists with disruptive potential. The conversation explores the shifting dynamics of terrorism, the implications of individual acts facilitated by accessible tech, and the media's inconsistent portrayal of violence. Clarke also hints at the legacy of Evgeny Prigozhin, examining the evolving landscape of private military companies in the wake of rising geopolitical tensions.

David Banks, a senior lecturer in wargaming at King's College London, sheds light on the intricate balance between realism and engagement in game design. He argues that understanding immersion is critical for effective learning. The discussion dives into the historical evolution of wargaming, contemporary research challenges, and scenarios like Taiwan's recognition that influence foreign policy. Banks emphasizes the need for robust evaluation frameworks and transparency in game outcomes while acknowledging subconscious biases that can skew decision-making.

Graham Norris is an organizational consultant with a focus on foresight psychology, while Ian Curtiss is an independent scenario designer for Lux Capital. They dive into our innate aversion to uncertainty and how it clouds our ability to predict the future. The pair discuss the psychological barriers that limit effective strategic planning and the importance of scenario thinking. They also highlight the need for alignment between personal ambitions and organizational goals, advocating for innovative gaming methods to navigate unpredictability in decision-making.

Gideon Lichfield, a writer for Substack’s Futurepolis and former Wired editor-in-chief, dives into the tense relationship between AI and democracy. He discusses how AI models, controlled by a select few, impact governance and the economy. Insightfully, he explores solutions like participatory budgeting and technology’s role in enhancing civic engagement. Lichfield shares experiences with risk gaming scenarios involving deepfakes, and emphasizes the importance of creating public-interest AI that prioritizes societal good over profit.

Maany Peyvan, former Senior Director of Communications at USAID under Biden, dives into the pressing issues surrounding U.S. foreign aid. He argues for a shift from self-interest to a charitable lens in American policy, highlighting the importance of empathy and innovation in humanitarian efforts. The conversation covers the transformation of aid work through AI, the critical role of foreign aid in global health, and the cultural significance of America's generosity amidst social isolation. Peyvan emphasizes that a renewed commitment to global assistance is essential for future success.

Michael Beckley, a Professor at Tufts University and author, joins to discuss the striking divide in America between thriving cities and struggling rural areas. He argues that America's decentralized institutions are both its strength and vulnerability, making it challenging to maintain industrial bases. The conversation touches on U.S. foreign policy, the implications of rising geopolitical tensions with China, and strategies to revitalize neglected regions. Beckley emphasizes the importance of finding balance in economic approaches to foster prosperity for all.

Nicholas Rush Smith, Director of the Master’s Program in International Affairs at The City College of New York, discusses the power of luck in shaping our lives. He explores how play-based learning can revolutionize education, especially in political science and international relations. The conversation highlights the role of simulations in understanding complex systems, the crucial lessons learned through losing, and how dopamine enhances the learning experience. Smith also tackles how educational methods must adapt to address global challenges like climate change.

In this discussion, Daniela Richterova, a Senior Lecturer in Intelligence Studies at King's College London, delves into Russia's evolving approach to sabotage. She reveals how the gig economy model enables Russia to recruit agents at minimal costs, highlighting the historical continuity in tactics from the KGB to today’s FSB. Daniela explains the implications of decentralized operations and cryptocurrencies for accountability. She also addresses the unexpected challenges for Western nations in adapting to this chaotic espionage landscape, raising crucial questions about security strategies.