The Higher Standard

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world! It’s The Higher Standard. Saied, Chris and Haroon come out swinging in Episode 163 and they are no pulling in punches in their thoughts on The Fed’s latest 25bps interest rate increase. Join us as the boys go deep, real deep, in to the US economy, GDP and give you a historical look at the Fed Funds Rate with a 62 Year Historical Chart. It also marks the third episode of back-to-back appearances by Haroon who had been out sick for three consecutive episodes. Resources:US economy blows past expectations: 3 quick takeaways (The Hill)GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls (CNBC)Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart (Macrotrends)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In Episode 162 of The Higher Standard Podcast, Chris, Saied and Haroon discuss why they believe a majority of US Economists are wrong about their predictions on whether or not the US will be entering a recession. They explain how analysts track and predict earnings for US publicly traded companies and how A.I. has impacted this space. They dive in to earnings from American Express and how it showcases record spending. Chris takes it a step further by shedding light on the human condition of wanting to believe in optimism while some at JPMorgan believe the time to sell is still now. They round out the show by examining Tesla’s new 84-month financing option and stand their ground on why that would be a terrible option for you. We hope you enjoy because we did!Resources:American Express earnings show record spending: 'The U.S. consumer just looks really strong.' (Market Watch)Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less in New Survey (Bloomberg)JPMorgan's Kolanovic Sticks to Stock Selloff Call Even as Market Defies Gloom (Bloomberg)Blame the Fed? Tesla offers 84-month financing (Yahoo! Finance)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Chris and Saied welcome back Haroon after being gone for a few episodes. The Huffington Post blasts "influencer" Grant Cardone in a sensational new article which speaks to many of the criticisms shared by Chris, Haroon and Saied on previous shows. Naturally, they get in to it and tell you how they really feel while providing insight in to why most of his purported investors don't understand what they are signing up for. They also explain how the Fed's looming instant payment modernization rollout is long overdue, but may be the first steps at a nationalized cryptocurrency. They dive in briefly to the rising homebuilder sentiment before wrapping up the show with Apollo's CEO description of a potential "non-recession" recession.Resources:Financial Influencer Grant Cardone Says He Can Make You A Billionaire. His Investors Claim He Defrauded Them (Huffington Post)Here are 10 reasons why Wall Street’s inevitable recession never arrived (Market Watch)Fed launches long-awaited instant payments service, modernizing system (Reuters)Federal Reserve officially launches new FedNow instant-payments service (CNBC)Fed launches new payments system that lets you send money in seconds (Yahoo Finance)Apollo CEO: We are going to have a "non-recession" recession (YouTube & CNBC)Homebuilder sentiment rises again in July, but builders warn higher mortgage rates are hurting (CNBC)Why Do We Idolize and Admire Celebrities (Success Consciousness)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

According to Federal Reserve data, the median sales price of homes sold peaked in the final quarter of 2022, reaching $479,000 before rising mortgage rates brought them back down. But April's S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller report, which tracks national home-price changes, came in above expectations at 0.53% from the previous month. On the surface, the data suggests prices are on the rise again. But a July 11 note from Goldman Sachs strategists suggests that any optimism stemming from this lagging indicator would be premature.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss new checking and savings account data that shows Americans are better off now than before the pandemic, with nearly 10 to 15 percent more in their bank accounts than in 2019, despite new heights of inflation.Chris and Saied look at data compiled by the research firm Equilar Inc., indicating that total pay for top Hollywood executives soared during the height of the pandemic to $1.43 billion in 2021, up 50% from 2018.They also offer some thoughts on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic comments on the CPI for June, claiming that it has slightly increased the Federal Reserve’s chances of a “soft landing” — or taming inflation without triggering a downturn.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Goldman Sachs' predictions that home price growth is regressing in certain key cities.Why a Nobel Prize-winning economist believes there's no need for the Fed to keep hiking rates.Why the Federal Reserve needs to look hard at Milton Friedman's monetarism.And so much more...Resources:"10 US cities where home-price growth is regressing the most as high mortgage rates worsen affordability, according to Goldman Sachs" (Insider)"Nobel Prize-winning economist says there’s no need for the Fed to keep hiking interest rates" (CNBC)"Jeremy Siegel says we are in a ‘Goldilocks economy’ and the Fed doesn’t need to raise interest rates anymore" (Fortune)"Americans are still better off, with more in the bank than before the pandemic" (The Washington Post)"Here's how much Hollywood executives make" (LA Times via Instagram)"JP Morgan’s Kolanovic Sees ‘Modestly Wider’ Path to Soft Landing" (Bloomberg)

Goldman Sachs has embraced a new plan to avoid a third straight quarter of disappointing investors on earnings day. Breaking with its own long-standing convention, Goldman executives have been actively downplaying expectations for results that will be disclosed next week. The outcome: Analysts have slashed their estimates for quarterly profit by almost half since mid-June — the biggest revision before an earnings report under CEO David Solomon. That translates into one of the steepest profit drops among peers, and a return on equity that could slip below 5%.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss an analysis by Realtor.com indicating that rent in the 50 largest U.S. cities is now cheaper than it was a year ago, with significant decreases in southern cities that were real estate hotspots during the pandemic.  Median rent prices in these cities dropped by 0.5% in the last year.Chris and Saied look at a report stating that former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky was arrested Thursday, as federal regulators announced his bankrupt crypto exchange Celsius would pay a $4.7 billion fine.They also offer some thoughts on the consumer price index (CPI) which has increased 3% from a year ago, the lowest level since March 2021. On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why one month of data is not enough for a 'wait and see' approach to the economy.Why core inflation is a better metric, and why food and energy data is too volatile.Goldman Sachs new tactic of downplaying its earnings.And so much more...Resources:"US Inflation Hits Two-Year Low, Giving Hope for End to Fed Hikes" (Bloomberg)"Goldman breaks its own rule to flag results much worse than rivals" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"These are the US cities where the rent has fallen the most since last year" (CNBC via Instagram)"Former Celsius CEO arrested, company agrees to pay $4.7 billion settlement" (CNBC via Instagram)"Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases" (Chart of the Day via Instagram)"Inflation Eased to 3% in June, Slowest Pace in More Than Two Years" (The Wall Street Journal)"Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases" (CNBC)

There is good news on inflation in store for Americans. The Labor Department is expected to report that overall inflation fell to about 3% in June, the lowest in two years. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core consumer price inflation is expected to drop to around 5%, an 18-month low, from 5.3%. Economists think core inflation could ebb further in coming months, to between 3.5% and 4%, depending on the price index. The bad news: Getting inflation down further from there, to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, will prove difficult if the economy keeps chugging along. That could force the Fed to keep monetary policy tight until the labor market weakens.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a Labor Department report indicating that nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 3.6%. That compared with the Dow Jones consensus estimates for growth of 240,000 and a jobless level of 3.6%.Chris and Saied look at comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, following the winning bid for First Republic, a lender to rich coastal families that had $229 billion in assets, who claimed that "This part of the crisis is over."They also offer some thoughts on Fitch analyst Chris Wolfe's assertion that half the country’s banks will likely be swallowed by competitors in the next decade.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the printing of trillions of dollars by the Fed in 2020-2022 led to a spike in inflation.Why over 40 million Americans will have to restart their student loan payments in the coming months.Why the inverted yield curve is such an important topic. And so much more...Resources:"Treasury yields fall as investors look to key economic data" (CNBC)"America’s Biggest Banks Are Going to Need More Capital" (The Wall Street Journal)"Everyone Wants Interest on Their Deposits. That’s Bad for Main Street Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)"Last Mile of the Inflation Fight Will Be the Hardest" (The Wall Street Journal)"Payrolls rose by 209,000 in June, less than expected, as jobs growth wobbles" (CNBC)"Job openings fall by half a million" (CNBC)"The American banking landscape is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Expect more pain to come." (CNBC)

The Commerce Department is reporting that the US economy expanded at a much faster pace in the first three months of the year than previously estimated. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, so it’s nearly impossible to enter a recession when spending is growing. Over the pandemic, historic levels of stimulus cash boosted household income significantly. Spending, meanwhile, was severely curtailed as the economy shut down. Personal saving rates soared as a result, with US households amassing about $2.3 trillion in savings in 2020 and through the summer of 2021, according to Federal Reserve economists. That’s about $2 trillion more than they would have saved under normal circumstances.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a warning from the Federal Trade Commission, indicating that scammers are likely to target student loan borrowers after the Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration’s debt forgiveness plan, and as loan repayments are poised to restart in the fall.Chris and Saied look at a report from payroll processing firm ADP, showing that private sector jobs surged by 497,000 for the month, well ahead of the downwardly revised 267,000 gain in May and much better than the 220,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate. The increase resulted in the biggest monthly rise since July 2022.They also offer some thoughts on comments from Epiq Bankruptcy, a provider of US bankruptcy filing data, which claims that Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings jumped 68% in the first half of 2023 from a year earlier.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why Forbes thinks inflation is keeping the housing market afloat for now.Why the credit tightening cycle has not yet begun.Why office mortgage delinquencies have suffered the biggest six-month spike in 20 years.And so much more...Resources:(Chart of the Day via Instagram)"The Fed can’t decide how much money US households have left" (CNN)"Mortgage rates hit the highest point of the year" (Yahoo! Finance)"America's economy rapidly shifts south" (Axios)"Bankruptcy filings surge in first half of 2023 in US, Epiq says" (Reuters)"CRE Nightmare For CMBS Holders: Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Suffers Biggest 6-Month Spike Ever" (Zerohedge)"Private sector companies added 497,000 jobs in June, more than double expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)"Payrolls report Friday likely to show a jobs market that is still hot" (CNBC)"Fed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at a slower pace, meeting minutes show" (CNBC)"FTC warns about student loan scams following Supreme Court decision" (CNBC)"Corporate America Faces a Bankruptcy Boom" (New York Times)"Inflation Keeps The Housing Market Afloat — For Now" (Forbes)"Some Fed Officials Supported Raising Rates in June" (The Wall Street Journal)

Millions of Americans will have to prepare to repay the entire balance of their student debt now that the Supreme Court has overturned President Biden’s loan-forgiveness plan. After a three-year pause in payments and months of uncertainty and legal challenges, the program won’t be allowed to move forward. The Biden administration’s forgiveness plan would have wiped out up to $20,000 in federal student-loan debt for qualified borrowers. The court ruled in a 6-3 decision Friday that the Education Department doesn’t have the authority to implement a program that would change student loans this way.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss comments by Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says he is not ruling out an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, despite market expectations. Chris and Saied look at a Commerce Department report, indicating that the core personal consumption expenditures price index, a number closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.3% for the month. On the year, core PCE inflation increased 4.6%, though the headline number was up just 3.8%.They also offer some thoughts on data from Redfin, showing that nationwide, the median U.S. home sale price fell 4.1% ($17,603) year over year in April to $408,031. That’s the biggest drop on record in dollar terms and the largest decline since January 2012 in percentage terms. April marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines following roughly a decade of increases.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The concept of emergency regulatory authority for the President.Why US corporate bankruptcies are on the rise.Why the only thing that will bring house prices down is more supply.And so much more...Resources:"Supreme Court Throws Out Biden’s Student-Loan Relief Plan" (Bloomberg)"US corporate bankruptcies are on the rise" (QZ)"This economist says he can’t rule out a Fed interest-rate cut by year-end. Here’s why." (MarketWatch)(Reventure Consulting via Instagram)"Homes in Austin and Boise are Selling for $80,000 Less Than a Year Ago" (Redfin)"Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States" (St. Louis Federal Reserve)"Key Fed inflation measure shows prices rose just 0.3% in May" (CNBC)"What the Supreme Court’s Rejection of Student-Loan Forgiveness Means for You" (The Wall Street Journal)"People Hire Phone Bots to Torture Telemarketers" (The Wall Street Journal)

The U.S. economy showed much stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter than previously thought, according to a big upward revision Thursday from the Commerce Department. GDP increased at a 2% annualized pace for the January-through-March period, up from the previous estimate of 1.3% and ahead of the 1.4% Dow Jones consensus forecast. This was the third and final estimate for Q1 GDP. The growth rate was 2.6% in the fourth quarter.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss data from Realor.com, indicating that the number of homes for sale this month was actually 7% higher than June of last year. However, in just the last week, that comparison went negative, with the number of homes for sale falling below year-ago levels for the first time in 59 weeks.Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labor Department, shown that initial jobless claims decreased by 26,000 to 239,000 in the week ended June 24, lower than all the estimates given in a recent survey of economists.They also offer some thoughts on cryptocurrency's lack of government regulation and the opportunities it offers to traders wishing to bypass government red tape. However its lack of formal oversight also makes it ripe for abuse.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why luxury watch prices are near their lowest level in two years.Why positive GDP growth means the economy is in expansion mode.Why mortgage rates are about to go higher.And so much more...Resources:"First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported, in major GDP revision" (CNBC via Instagram)"World's dealmakers are down $1 trillion in one of worst years for M&A and IPOs in decades" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Dealmakers Adrift as $1 Trillion Vanishes in First Half" (Bloomberg)"Prices for luxury Swiss watches are near the lowest in almost two years on the secondary market" (Businessweek via Instagram)"Popularity of Apps for Early Paydays Masks Added Risks" (Bloomberg)"House hunting is already tough. Guess what? It’s about to get harder" (CNBC)"First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision" (CNBC)"He lost $340,000 to a crypto scam. Such cases are on the rise" (NPR)https://www.npr.org/2023/06/25/1180256165/crypto-scam-senior-victims-spirebit"US Jobless Claims Drop by Most Since 2021 in Holiday Week" (Bloomberg)"Airbnb Could Be in Trouble — Here’s What You Need to Know" (Architectural Digest)

In New York and London, owners of office towers are walking away from their debt rather than pouring good money after bad. The landlords of downtown San Francisco’s largest mall have abandoned it. A new Hong Kong skyscraper is only a quarter leased. The rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a prediction from Chapman University economists, calling for a mild national recession in the second half of the year, driving down the coastal community's year-end local median sales price to $885,000 — an 11 percent drop from $993,000 in June and 19 percent off the $1.1 million high of spring 2022.Chris and Saied look at announcements from several big companies, including Apple, JPMorgan Chase, and Amazon, who are attempting new pushes to “return to office” after previous attempts foundered. However, the pandemic has showed that many jobs can be done remotely, while a tight labor market and successful pandemic policy has given employees the confidence to push for better working conditions.They also offer some thoughts on data from Moody’s Investors Service, which indicates that corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That’s more than double the same period last year.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why office real estate values are heading for a sharp crash and likely won't recover by 2040.Why average US office vacancies currently sit around 50%.  The Case-Shiller index shows the first year-over-year decline in 11 years.And so much more...Resources:"Cinemark closing theater complex at Westfield" (NBC via Instagram)"OC home prices expected to fall by 11% as recession looms" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Silicon Valley vacancy jumps to 17% as tech firms shed floors" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Return to office? How COVID-19 and remote work reshaped the economy" (Princeton University Press)"Corporate bankruptcies and defaults are surging – here’s why" (CNBC)"The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb" (Bloomberg)"U.S. new home sales jump in May; median house price falls" (Reuters)"U.S. Home Prices Posted First Annual Decline Since 2012 in April" (The Wall Street Journal)"Airbnb CEO says this is ‘loneliest time in human history’ and we need to ‘rebuild physical community’" (Fortune)"The office real estate crash will be so sharp and deep that Capital Economics thinks office values are unlikely to recover by 2040" (Fortune)"The Debt Crisis Looming in Commercial Real Estate" (Bloomberg)