We Are Not Saved

You have probably heard about Rotherham, and the child sex abuse rings that existed there (and may still be operating). As with so many things these days, this story entered the public discussion when Musk tweeted about it. For many people I’ve talked to, this was the first they’d heard of it. I actually spoke about about it in 2018. At the time I felt I was late to the game, but apparently I was six years ahead of most people. Given the story's re-emergence I thought it might be worth dusting off that old piece. I think it holds up pretty well, particularly the part about the woeful lack of reporting on the topic. I have lightly edited it, smoothing things out in a few places, adding commas, that sort of thing. Temporal references have not been updated, so when I say “a week ago” I’m referring to 2018. Even if you’ve already read a lot about these horrific crimes, there are a few takes in here that I haven’t seen elsewhere  

Exactly five years ago, China identified a “novel coronavirus” and the world was introduced to the term “wet market”. In the time since then arguments continue to rage about the source of the virus, the measures that were taken, and the vaccines that were created. In the midst of all these arguments, everyone seems to agree on one thing: extended school closures were a bad idea. It’s very easy to continue on from that to assume the harms of such closures were obvious from the very beginning—that they happened only because we were blinded by fear. Some people don’t go quite so far, but nevertheless argue that such closures were implemented hastily and without much consideration. But consider this quote from the Michael Lewis book Premonition on the role of disease modeling: The graph illustrated the effects on a disease of various crude strategies: isolating the ill; quarantining entire households when they had a sick person in them; socially distancing adults; giving people antiviral drugs; and so on. Each of the crude strategies had some slight effect, but none by itself made much of a dent, and certainly none had the ability to halt the pandemic by driving the disease’s reproductive rate below 1. One intervention was not like the others, however: when you closed schools and put social distance between kids, the flu-like disease fell off a cliff. (The model defined “social distance” not as zero contact but as a 60 percent reduction in kids’ social interaction.) “I said, ‘Holy shit!’ ” said Carter. “Nothing big happens until you close the schools. It’s not like anything else. It’s like a phase change. It’s nonlinear. It’s like when water temperature goes from thirty-three to thirty-two. When it goes from thirty-four to thirty-three, it’s no big deal; one degree colder and it turns to ice.

A Gentleman in Moscow by: Amor Towles The Humans by: Matt Haig Super-Cannes: A Novel by: J. G. Ballard Monster Hunter: International by: Larry Correia Monster Hunter: Vendetta by: Larry Correia

Three things converged for me recently and at the point of their convergence was the issue of placing women in frontline combat roles. The first leg of the convergence was the election of Donald Trump. We’re still debating the reasons why he won, but certainly a reassertion of gender differences are near the top of everyone’s list. For example, allowing natal men into women’s sports. The second was Trump’s nomination of Pete Hesgeth for Secretary of Defense. Hegseth’s nomination is controversial for a lot of reasons, but one of the controversies is his opinion that women should not be allowed into front line combat roles.  Finally, I just got done watching the miniseries Band of Brothers, while at the same time re-reading the Stephen E. Ambrose book it’s based on. I would highly recommend the exercise (see my review of the book here.) In addition to being enjoyable it reminded me of how physical, grimy, and desperate combat can be. And of course the theme of both the book and the series is that Easy Company was so effective because they had developed strong bonds of brotherhood through the numerous challenges they overcame. These challenges include D-Day, Market Garden, liberating concentration camps, and finally being the first into Hitler’s stronghold at Eagle’s Nest. But if you were to pick the hardest thing they did, it was probably defending Bastogne during the Battle of the Bulge. Watching and reading about Bastogne was a sobering experience. It is also the point where the three things I just mentioned crystallized into this line of inquiry. Given that it might be helpful to give you a brief overview of the Siege of Bastogne...  

Dive into the transformative power of religion and how it shapes cooperation and conflict in society. Explore the evolving role of trust in a secular world, especially regarding modern immigration challenges. Discover untold investment failures that challenge stereotypical success narratives and emphasize self-reflection. Experience gripping tales of WWII soldiers through 'Band of Brothers,' accompanied by a discussion on the controversies surrounding its author. Unearth stories of unsung heroes who changed American history, proving that inspiration often comes from unexpected places.

AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference by: Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor Country Driving: A Journey Through China from Farm to Factory by: Peter Hessler On Grand Strategy by: John Lewis Gaddis Leisure: The Basis of Culture by: Josef Pieper Anatomy of the State by: Murray Rothbard The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results Alone on the Ice: The Greatest Survival Story in the History of Exploration by: David Roberts The Killer Angels: The Classic Novel of the Civil War by: Michael Shaara

He talks about the Village, and the River, but what we really need is a Redoubt. On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything  By: Nate Silver Published: 2024 576 Pages Briefly, what is this book about? There are two different ways of approaching the world: the River, which thinks in terms of numbers, expected values, and quantification and the Village, which is the paternalistic expert class which manifests as the vast bureaucracy.  What's the author's angle? I got the impression that Silver just wanted to write about things that interested him. Because of this, his thesis was kind of tacked on. That said, he is a fairly passionate advocate for things that interest him.  Who should read this book? Silver is worried that people will skip the first half of the book which is about gambling, but in reality that was the best part, or at least the part I found to be novel. The second part is about Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), AI, and all the stuff you’ve already heard too much about if you spend much time online. With this in mind, I think there are three reasons to read this book: If you want a deep exploration of high-level poker playing.  You have never heard of AI Risk or SBF. If you think my discussion of Silver’s model of the Village vs. the River is incomplete. Specific thoughts: An mashup of the election and this book ...

One Nation Under Blackmail: The Sordid Union Between Intelligence and Crime that Gave Rise to Jeffrey Epstein, Volumes 1 & 2  By: Whitney Alyse Webb Briefly, what are these books about? The alleged connections between organized crime and national intelligence agencies which led to the numerous illicit operations including Watergate, Iran-Contra, the JFK Assassination, and of course the entire Jeffrey Epstein mess.  A key component of these operations was the tactic of collecting blackmail and using it to convince people to do things they otherwise wouldn’t. What's the author's angle? Charitably, Webb is an autodidact with an enormous command of facts and connections. Uncharitably, she’s someone with a weak evidentiary filter making conspiratorial mountains out of tenuously connected molehills. Who should read these books? No one should just read them. You should either ignore them or study them intently as part of an “Intro to Conspiracy Theories” curriculum. Of the two I would recommend the former. Read on to see why. I- How does one approach a book like this?  ...

The Ocean at the End of the Lane by: Neil Gaiman There Is No Antimemetics Division by: qntm The Man Who Had All the Luck by: Arthur Miller How Green Was My Valley by: Richard Llewellyn Theft of Fire: Orbital Space #1 by: Devon Eriksen Assassin's Apprentice (The Farseer Trilogy, Book 1) by: Robin Hobb Royal Assassin (The Farseer Trilogy, Book 2) by: Robin Hobb

With the enormous increase in the power of AI (specifically LLMs) people are using them for all sorts of things, hoping to find areas where they’re better, or at least cheaper than humans. FiveThirtyNine (get it?) is one such attempt, and they claim that AI can do forecasting better than humans.  Scott Alexander, of Astral Codex Ten, reviewed the service and concluded that they still have a long way to go. I have no doubt that this is the case, but one can imagine that this will not always be the case. What then? My assertion would be that at the point when AI forecasting does “work” (should that ever happen) it will make the problems of superforecasting even worse.2  I- The problems of superforecasting What are the problems of superforecasting? ...