In the Company of Mavericks

I visited Buenos Aires in November last year.  I wanted to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. I met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution.  As I was researching an article about my visit, I read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023.  In the readers’ comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view.  I looked up Jeffrey on LinkedIn and asked him a couple of questions. It turned out Jeffrey was in BA and only a short walk from where I was staying, and the following day he met me for lunch in the Argentinian November Spring sunshine.  Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn’t work, in his adopted country.  12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, I reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since we met, and how he sees things shaping up. He kindly agreed to record this interview. And this is what he told me.  Please enjoy my conversation with Jeffrey Stout. Brought to you by Progressive Equity   

On the 27th of November, I had the good fortune to speak with a friend of the pod, Simon French, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and Thomas Moore, Senior Investment Director at Aberdeen, to discuss the UK Budget and its implications.  Simon, who writes a regular column in the Times, is a go-to person on the UK economy, and Thomas is steeped in experience and understanding of the value and income attractions of UK equities, with a long and successful track record of managing the Aberdeen Equity Income Trust.    We had a great chat and distinguished the essential differences between the UK economy and the UK market. But also at the risk of mansplaining, they also identified what more needs to be done for the UK economy to deliver growth and, importantly, to make UK assets more attractive to global capital.  But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.  And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Thomas Moore.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Get ready for a touch of mansplaining as Simon French of Panmure Liberum and Thomas Moore of Aberdeen discuss the Budget and its implications for UK equities. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

A few weeks ago, friend of the pod, Mark Wharrier, and I were invited to the 6th-anniversary party for the fund manager, Kernow Asset Management. CEO Ed Hugo and CIO Alyx Wood have featured on previous episodes.But today, Mark and I chat with Alyx about his approach to the UK, why he finds it an attractive market with his active contrarian long-short strategy, and which ideas he is currently most interested in and invested in. We had a great discussion, with Mark sharing his valuable perspective as a successful UK equity fund manager over many years, and Alyx talking about his investment process, the lessons he has learnt, and why he is now unemployable elsewhere, given how much fun he derives from doing what he is doing. But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.With that, please enjoy our conversation with Alyx Wood.        Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

I increasingly believe that to invest in today’s markets, one needs a macroeconomic framework. Pure momentum or valuation approaches are insufficient. I have been keen to talk with people who understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape we operate in and have mental models for using these dynamics to increase the likelihood of identifying risk asymmetries. Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. Mark delivered a masterclass of the how’s and why’s of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

I increasingly believe that to invest in today’s markets, one needs a macroeconomic framework. Pure momentum or valuation approaches are insufficient. I have been keen to talk with people who understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape we operate in and have mental models for using these dynamics to increase the likelihood of identifying risk asymmetries. Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. Mark delivered a masterclass of the how’s and why’s of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

As Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband return from COP30 in Brazil, I wanted to take a look at the UK’s energy policy amid a global backdrop suggesting the world is turning away from net-zero absolutism towards more human-centric policy options. The Overton window on energy policy is being pushed aside by the likes of Tony Blair, Bill Gates, and, significantly, by the lobbying interests of big technology, and resource nationalism is being reasserted. In the run-up to the next General Election, the UK’s energy policy will form a key battleground, and in particular, our sky-high energy prices and the future of our North Sea hydrocarbons industry will be critical factors in the debate.  So, I was delighted to be joined, last week, by Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic energy consultant and Telegraph columnist, and Martin Copeland Chief Financial Officer of North Sea oil and gas operator, Serica Energy for a discussion about the UK’s energy policy and the future of the North Sea, for a hugely insightful conversation. While we covered a lot of ground, the key question is whether the UK is prepared to sacrifice its North Sea oil and gas industry to the god of net-zero. While it has already been severely damaged, it is not too late for government policy to save the jobs and energy reserves at stake, but action is needed in the upcoming Budget. This significant event could mark a turning point for an industry on the brink of destruction from the irrational pursuit of territorial net-zero at all costs. As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it both entertaining and informative. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Kathryn Porter and Martin Copeland. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

As COP delegates use a road cut through the Amazon to attend a gathering of people who tell us we need to make sacrifices to protect the planet, the wider world is pivoting away from climate alarmism toward more human-centric policy choices. UK energy policy is becoming a critical political battleground ahead of the next election, and the North Sea hydrocarbon industry is a focal point. As Professor Sir Dieter Helm said this week in the Times, "Global climate change won’t be mitigated by halting licences in the UK’s sector of the North Sea and instead importing oil and gas from elsewhere (including the Norwegian sector). Replacing North Sea gas with American LNG is environmentally much worse than “home-grown” gas. It also just makes the balance of payments worse, alongside all the imported gas from Norway and the imported electricity from Europe."I recently spoke to Watt Energy consultant Kathryn Porter and Serica Energy plc CFO Martin Copeland to discuss this very issue. How long do we have to save the North Sea from this ideologically riven madness? What steps do we need to take to fix our astronomically high energy costs? Is the UK prepared to sacrifice its hydrocarbon industry to the gods of net-zero? Coming soon, In The Company of Mavericks, on all good podcast apps ...Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

What’s happening to gold?  Is the so-called debasement trade over? Have we just seen another FOMO driven momentum bubble hit a blowout top?Is that it for another decade? Of course, a bubble is a bull market that we are not involved in, and from the outside, the recent frenzy over gold is just another case of market hysteria, right? Conspiracy theories like the dollar debasement are just, well, conspiracy theories, right? This week I invited two long standing and respected sound money advocates to share their thoughts on gold, where it came from, where it might be heading and why. We had a great chat.  Dominic Frisby has recently published his latest book, The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics & Power and is also the man behind the excellent Flying Frisby Substack … Wealth manager Tim Price of Price Value Partners is also the author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, a rational guide to irrational financial markets.  We discussed why gold is valuable, why the gold price has recently been so strong and how investors should think about gold as an investment asset class in a world of government deficits, spiralling debt and uncertain geopoliticsBut as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; hopefully, it is informative and entertaining. Please take professional advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. And with that, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Tim Price    Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Earlier this week, I chatted with Dominic Frisby of the Flying Frisby and Tim Price of Price Value Partners to talk about gold and related issues. I asked them: Is the fiat debasement inevitable? Should we be buying the dip in precious metals prices? And much, much more ....Don't miss it. Make sure you are subscribed, dropping soon on all good podcast apps.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity