In the Company of Mavericks

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK’s Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes. Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin.  Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues.  Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.   In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state?  Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.   Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK’s Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes. Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin.  Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues.  Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.   In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state?  Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.   Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

Recently, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, Times columnist and friend of the podcast, Simon French, wrote an article in which he asked, Can Kemi Badenoch sell Mileinomics in Britain?  This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina’s Javier Milei as her “template for government.”   An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform?  Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months?  Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029?  To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei?  Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises, before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then, he has his doubts.  We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker’s insight into how to pitch the UK’s longer-term potential to global investors, who, after all, must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest in recently.  We had a great discussion, but as always, none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Recently, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, Times columnist and friend of the podcast, Simon French wrote an article in which he asked, Can Kemi Badenoch sell Mileinomics in Britain?  This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina’s Javier Milei as her “template for government.”   An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform?  Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months?  Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029?  To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei?  Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then he has his doubts.  We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker’s insight into how to pitch the UK’s longer term  potential to global investors, who, after all must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest recently.  We had a great discussion, but as always none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand. Brought to you  by Progressive Equity.    

I am spending an increasing amount of time on Substack. It features some excellent content and a diverse range of perspectives. Something that is valuable for any investor seeking non-consensus views and opinions. A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I am spending an increasing amount of time on Substack. It features some excellent content and a diverse range of perspectives. Something that is valuable for any investor seeking non-consensus views and opinions. A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Is China investable? If so, how do you go about it? What are the basic ground rules? Recently, I spoke to an American fund manager living in the UK whose life has been intertwined with China since he was a young boy. Rufus Frazier has a long career investing in emerging markets, and he believes China offers some of the best investment opportunities available anywhere in the world. In a fascinating discussion, we cover the macro backdrop to China and the perceived risks, such as the Taiwan issue, property rights and the historically poor returns from Chinese equities over the last couple of decades, when its economic growth has been so strong. What are we missing about this disconnect, and why might this be changing?   Rufus explains why the scale and structure of China’s market makes stock picking essential, he talks about the things to look for as well as the sectors and stocks to avoid.For example, China’s Uber, Didi, seems fine, but its huge battery manufacturer with a dominant global market position, CATL, is more problematic. Finally, Rufus puts the opportunity for Chinese equities into its broader EM context. Where are the other “hot” emerging markets? In his view, mainly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Now comes the bit where I remind you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment. Please take professional advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Rufus Frazier.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

Charlie Morris is an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets. Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.  Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.https://bold.report/https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Minihttps://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Charlie Morris is an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets. Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.  Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.https://bold.report/https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Minihttps://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Back in April, I had the chance to talk with three people who are at the business end of UK-based boutique fund managers. The funds they help run and develop have all been featured in previous episodes. Jamie Carter of Variis is a veteran of the boutique landscape, having helped form Oldfield Partners. He is now CEO of a London partnership developing an emerging markets strategy aimed largely at US endowments. The Variis CIO, Leila Cardouche, in an episode from October last year, illustrated the huge potential that an actively managed EM strategy offers.    Ed Hugo partners with Alyx Wood at Kernow Asset Management, where they are having success running a long/short UK equity strategy. Alyx last appeared on the pod in November 2023 to discuss why it might be a good idea to invest in the UK. Meanwhile, Jackson Wray joined Dowgate Wealth in a business development role for its two UK value strategies, Onward Opportunities, a pro-active microcap strategy managed by Laurence Hulse (also last on the podcast in November 2023) and Cape Wrath, a concentrated UK deep value fund managed by Adam Rackley (who appeared in Market Capitulations and Narrative Shifts in June last year). Jackson was previously a professional rugby player with Saracens before retiring in 2023, and he draws some interesting comparisons between the worlds of competitive sport and asset management. All the funds these guys work on have managers with successful track records, but what are the issues when it comes to setting up, complying with the regulations, growing AUM, and how do they deal with things when the going gets tough, not according to plan? These are the thoughts of three people who live and breathe these issues, and it is a fascinating discussion with some interesting pointers for anyone considering setting up themselves.  Ed says you need to be mad, Jamie says the regulators could do more to help, and Jackson stresses the importance of being honest with yourself and your teammates.  For full disclosure, I have investments in the Kernow Equity Fund, Onward Opportunities, and the Cape Wrath Fund. And before we get into it, here’s the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice, but purely for your information and hopefully entertainment. You should take personal, professional financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.   Please enjoy my conversation with Jamie, Ed and Jackson.       Brought to you by Progressive Equity.