In the Company of Mavericks

Doomberg and The Brawl Street Journal have published pieces recently about the economic, political and financial predicament of Europe and the EU in our rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Both argue that it doesn't look good. So, earlier this week, I brought them together to share their views. We discussed how we got here, the main factors, and how Europe is positioned in the emerging multipolar world order. I must warn you, they don't hold any punches. Full episode coming soon, please subscribe. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.     

In this engaging discussion, Simon Young, a UK equity specialist and author of The Curious Compounder, teams up with Mark Wharrier, an experienced investor and co-host of the Business Case podcast. They delve into the traits that define quality compounders, such as high return on capital and founder leadership. By analyzing companies like Wise and Goodwin, they reveal how adaptability and strategic long-term views play crucial roles in their success. Listeners also learn valuable tips for spotting potential future compounders in the market.

Ever wondered why some equities get that special tag of quality compounder? It sounds easy when you read about Charlie Munger or Nick Sleep buying Costco and holding it forever. But everyone knows the Costco story and how great it is. You risk buying a great business at the wrong price. What enables such businesses to compound? How can you identify their critical characteristics so that you can increase the odds of buying them at a fair or low valuation? I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre and professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and spending their time searching the UK market for exactly these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity fund managers both started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock. Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied current portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.COMING SOON on all good podcast platforms ... subscribe to get more great episodes.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.         

It was a true pleasure last week to chat to the meme trader, parody hedge fund manager and Shrubstack author himself, Le Shrub. Le Shrub uses humour and parody to highlight opportunities and turning points in financial markets, which he brings to life for his followers on his Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator website.  We discuss the role of satire in understanding the stranger than fiction world we inhabit. Why it only makes sense when you realise it is all nonsense … and how his fictional characters, Klaus and the Pod Monkeys, can shed light on the investment landscape we inhabit.    Shrub gives his thoughts on the asymmetry of global markets, why he thinks Nvidia Must Die and why currency debasement is a feature of the Golden Age of Grift, not a bug.  But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment.  Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Le Shrub. I wrote about Satire & Investing as a tribute to Tom Lehrer, who died earlier this year, where I mentioned Le Shrub's great work. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

It was a great pleasure and a lot of fun to catch up with the master meme trader, the Eurotrash hedge fund parody investor himself, Le Shrub. Learn how he understands the world through satire and memes, as he says, 'nothing makes sense until you accept it's all nonsense.' Full episode dropping soon on all good podcast apps. Please make sure you're subscribed. 

Last week I had a conversation with Marvin Barth, author of the Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?! Substacks.Marvin is what I would call an evolved policy wonk. A PhD economist, Marvin’s career includes working for The Federal Reserve, the Bank for International Settlements, the US Treasury Department and several major Wall Street banks.He has a well-informed and holistic view of the world and its core drivers, which should be interesting to everyone, but particularly those of us trying to understand how to position long-term investment portfolios in these chaotic and challenging times. I was keen to speak to Marvin about his Global Entropy framework, which he first outlined on his “paid for” Thematic Markets service two years ago, but has recently republished along with an epilogue on his non-paywalled Substack, Seriously, Marvin! In a wide-ranging discussion, which I found challenging to edit, we discussed what Global Entropy is and how it has commonly been interpreted by differing versions of cognitive dissonance or derangements among universalist liberal elites.        As always, what you are about to hear is not intended as advice, but rather for your enjoyment and hopefully, entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Marvin Barth. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Last week I was joined by economist and Substack author Marvin Barth for a chat about his work about Global Entropy as a way of thinking about our increasingly chaotic world. Coming soon, please subscribe. 

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK’s Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes. Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin.  Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues.  Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.   In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state?  Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.   Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK’s Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes. Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin.  Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK’s Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues.  Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.   In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state?  Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don’t really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.   Catherine’s perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today’s widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

Recently, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, Times columnist and friend of the podcast, Simon French, wrote an article in which he asked, Can Kemi Badenoch sell Mileinomics in Britain?  This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina’s Javier Milei as her “template for government.”   An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform?  Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months?  Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029?  To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei?  Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises, before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then, he has his doubts.  We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker’s insight into how to pitch the UK’s longer-term potential to global investors, who, after all, must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest in recently.  We had a great discussion, but as always, none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.