The Human Risk Podcast

What can Compliance learn from Art & Design? They're not normally things we associate together. But my guest on this episode, Andra Popa has a background in art. She then became a Lawyer and finally a Compliance Officer. That path has informed how she looks at Compliance. What's even more remarkable, is that she does it in an industry where compliance failures are literally a matter of life and death; healthcare.In our discussion, we explore how Andra came to be a Compliance Officer an how she goes about approaching the challenges of inflcuneing human behaviour. She's got some fascinating insights and ideas to share.To find out more about Andra's work visit her website: https://designandcompliance.com/You can also read an interview with her here:https://www.slideshare.net/AndraMPopa/an-interview-about-design-complianceI also mention The Table of Eleven. You can read about that here: https://www.oecd.org/env/outreach/33962815.pdf

What is Prosilience, and how can organisations ensure their people provide it? That’s where the discussion between my guests on this episode, Gerald Ashley and Rory Sutherland, begins. Where it goes from there, is a joyous adventure in which two great thinkers explore a range of Human Risk related topics. * Listener Warning: the episode contains adult language * This episode is the 100th in the Human Risk podcast series and is a continuation of a discussion which began in the 99th episode. I recommend listening to that first before exploring this one.You'll find my earlier discussion with Rory here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/rory-sutherland-on-compliance/and Gerald here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-on-uncertainty/As with the previous episode, I’m providing more detailed show notes given the breadth and depth of issues covered. 05:18 Rory refers to Seeing Like A State by James C Scott. More on that here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seeing_Like_a_State05:54 Gerald talks about the metrics used to measure Soviet bicycle manufacturing. This article doesn’t feature bicycles, but covers the idea and features a wonderful cartoon from a Soviet magazine: https://econlife.com/2015/08/the-incentives-that-metrics-create/09:32 Rory talks about his appearance on Bloomberg TV. You can watch that here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-25/advertisers-becoming-too-obsessed-with-tech-sutherland11:50 Rory mentions Rod Liddell in the context of a story about the BBC’s travel policy. To learn more about Rod: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Liddle12:34 Gerald mentions Peter Turchin, who Rory explains is a Cliodynamicist. You’ll find Peter’s website here: http://peterturchin.com/ and a guide to Cliodynamics one that website here: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/14:10 A rare intervention by me to mention David Graber’s book Bullshit Jobs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs14:30 Rory refers to 14th Century Middle Eastern Historian Ibn Khaldoun - https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ibn-Khaldun15:04 Gerald talks about The Great Wave by David Hackett Fischer - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Wave_(book)18:25 Rory talks about Daniel Kahneman’s research into risk appetites of CEOs and division heads. You can read more about that in this HBR article: https://hbr.org/2020/03/your-company-is-too-risk-averse19:40 Gerald talks about the Lockheed Martin Skunkworks. You can read about the history of that unit here https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/history/skunk-works.html and its current role here: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/who-we-are/business-areas/aeronautics/skunkworks.html22:59 Gerald talks about Nudgestock, the annual Behavioural Science festival hosted by Rory. You can read about that here: https://www.nudgestock.co.uk/The presentation he refers to is by Jules Goddard called The Fatal Bias and can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNlzl37GLdA 24:46 Rory highlights the story of mathematician’s Abraham Wald intervention in the Second World War. It is explained in this excerpt from Jordan Ellenberg’s excellent How Not To Be Wrong: https://medium.com/@penguinpress/an-excerpt-from-how-not-to-be-wrong-by-jordan-ellenberg-664e708cfc3d25:56 Rory talks about IBM’s Thomas Watson and his desire to have Wild Geese. In actual fact, Watson talked about Wild Ducks (https://www.mbiconcepts.com/watson-sr-and-wild-ducks.html). Interestingly, the Duck story actually comes from an original fable by Søren Kierkegaard about a Wild Goose. For some reason Watson preferred Ducks! You can read the Kierkegaard story here: https://www.maxelon.co.uk/2015/01/domestic-geese/26:18 Rory refers to James C Scott’s idea of an Anarchist’s Squint. You can read more about that in his collection of essays called Two Cheers for Anarchism: https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/james-c-scott-two-cheers-for-anarchism32:33 Gerald talks about how the British government sold Rolls Royce engines to the Russian government. You can read about that here: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-british-turbojet-allowed-russias-mig-15-fight-the-air-2638532:50 Rory explains how penicillin was passed by America to supposedly neutral countries during World War Two, against British instructions. It ended up saving Adolf Hitler’s life after a bomb plot on 20th July 1940. More on the research behind that here: https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/154-1.17501840:05 Rory references British supergroup The Travelling Wilburys. Find out who they are here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_Wilburys. You can hear them on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/artist/2hO4YtXUFJiUYS2uYFvHNK?si=eqMFhifpSIai03kZPFHOVQ

How do networks influence our decision-making?As the Human Risk podcast approached its 100th episode, I thought I’d invite back two guests whose previous appearances have been amongst the most downloaded. And I’m glad I did. Because what Rory Sutherland and Gerald Ashley delivered, wasn’t worthy of a single episode - it was worthy of two!So on this, the 99th episode of the podcast, I’m sharing Part I of their conversation. In it, they explore a subject they’ve both written about - networks. We all naturally like to make connections between things - sometimes that can be extremely useful, but it can also lead to flawed decision-making.As many of my listeners will be familiar with Rory and Gerald, I haven’t included introductions. You can find those, if you need them, on their previous appearances on the show.Gerald’s first appearance is here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-on-uncertainty/Rory first appearance is here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/rory-sutherland-on-compliance/What makes both such fantastic guests, is that they have lots of stories to tell; in doing so, they often make references that might not be as obvious to listeners not based in the UK. For that reason, I’ve included much more detailed show notes than usual. If you come across something you’re unfamiliar with, then the timestamps below will hopefully help.When you’ve listened to this, look out for Part II of their discussion, available wherever you found this shortly after the initial release.5:35 Rory references a joke involving sheep. He explains it here: - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-wiki-man-11-september-20105:41 Rory mentions disgraced former children’s TV presenter Jimmy Saville. Read his story here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Savile_sexual_abuse_scandal6:18 Rory talks about the Tube map. Londoners refer to their subway as “The Tube”, and the map of it is “the Tube Map”. You can read about its history and see it here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tube_map10:00 Rory highlights the Danish Mask Study, which emanated from Denmark, and showed that mask-wearing was ineffective. However, that relied on a particular (wrong!) interpretation of the data. This Twitter thread by Nassim Taleb (https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1331639626101104642?lang=en) and this British Medical Journal article explain why - https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m458610:36 Rory talks about the tragic case of Sally Clark, a solicitor. You can read her story here - https://www.theguardian.com/society/2007/mar/17/childrensservices.uknews12:01 Gerald mentions advertiser Maurice Saatchi, who ate an egg only diet. His wife Nigella Lawson, a chef, revealed some details - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1063289/Nigellas-husband-cracks-obesity-thanks-egg-diet.html13:30 Rory highlighted how we have persisted with stemmed wine glasses, inspire of them being somewhat ludicrous. Here's an article he wrote about it - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-ludicrousness-of-stemmed-wine-glasses15:52 Gerald says he’s not sure what MiniDisc or Blu-Ray are. Here’s what he can read to find out more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MiniDisc and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray16:48 Rory talks about Geoffrey Miller’s research into evolution. You can read that here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235362665_The_Mating_Mind_How_Sexual_Choice_Shaped_the_Evolution_of_Human_Nature and his website is here: https://www.primalpoly.com/19:38 Rory mentions two UK crime series Waking The Dead and Inspector Morse. More on those here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waking_the_Dead_(TV_series) and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inspector_Morse_(TV_series)22:10 Gerald mentions the Rabbit phone which Rory used to own. Read about that here - https://londonist.com/london/technology/remember-phone-zones-the-mobile-experiment-that-ended-in-disaster22:49 In his story about the Rabbit phone, Rory talks about the Happy Eater on A40 at Burford. Happy Eater was a chain of roadside restaurants (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Eater), and you’ll find the story of the Burford one here: https://littlechef.fandom.com/wiki/Burford23:45 Rory highlights Harris Tweed as an under-appreciated invention. Find out more about that here: https://www.harristweed.org/24:35 Gerald talks about the BBC Microcomputer (what he calls the “Acorn Computer”) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Micro. Here’s the story from The BBC about it: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-1596906525:09 Gerald talks about the Domesday Project, a modern version of the Domesday book (an 11th Century Census of England). It is often cited as a great example of technological obsolesce in action: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Domesday_Project26:38 Rory highlights Nassim Taleb’s Minority Rules idea, which is explained by Taleb here: https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e1528:34 Rory mentions Pimms, which is an alcoholic drink, typically drunk in summer - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pimm%27s28:56 The French Complexity Scientist Rory mentions is Serge Galam. Read more about him here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serge_Galam29:49 Rory highlights KFC Australia’s Build Your Own Bucket invention - https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=233689124330218830:08 Rory uses the term “Lindy”. It was coined by Nassim Taleb, and he explains it here: https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf30:58 Rory talks about the NHS - the UK’s National Health Service, which is free at the point of delivery. You can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Health_ServiceYou can read more about their reliance on fax machines here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-4649752631:04 Gerald talks about Marmite, a yeast-based spread. Read about it here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marmite and then see how they use the idea of loving it or hating it here: 33:56 Rory mentions The Wason Test, a problem-solving test, which you can explore here: https://www.indy100.com/discover/the-simple-test-that-shows-how-logical-you-are-730260133:57 He then highlights Cosmides & Toobey’s version of The Wason Test - https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/the-imprinted-brain/201205/making-sense-wason36:36 Gerald talks about Squadcast, which is the recording software I use to record this podcast - https://app.squadcast.fm/37:47 Gerald talks about China’s Social Credit System. More on that in this article - https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-credit-system-explained38:45 Rory talks about the transport links in Kent, a county in the South East of the UK. Read more about it here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent43:14 Gerald and Rory highlight some older video technologies; VHS, Betamax & Video 2000. More on those here:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VHS, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betamax, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_2000. You can read about the video format wars here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videotape_format_war43:54 Rory talks about how adult entertainment impacts technology. Read more about that here - https://thenextweb.com/hard-core-high-tech/2016/08/30/porn-pioneers-adult-entertainment-boosts-technology/

On the face of it, the creative industry ought to be very good at adapting it's thinking. After all, people who can think creatively, ought to be able to adapt the way they do things. But, as we've seen during the pandemic, the creative industries are facing similar problems to other businesses: a lack of diversity, business models that are heavily reliant on particular income streams and in some cases, a real existential threat. What is happening and what can the arts do to recover? And what might business learn from the arts and vice versa? That's what I explore with my guest on this episode, Mark Heywood. In March 2019, Mark joined me on the podcast to explore how COVID was impacting the creative industries. There's a link to that episode below. Given so much has happened since then, I thought I'd get him back for an update and to explore how the pandemic has highlighted some of the Human Risk dynamics inherent in the creative industries. In our discussion, we catch up on what Mark's been up to since we last spoke and explore the challenges an industry that has often survived without always adapting to the changes in society. As ever, his insights into an industry he cares passionately about, are fascinating. Both generally, but also from a Human Risk perspective. On the episode, Mark mentioned a number of things, details for which are below:- His show at London's biggest arts festival that was due to tour: https://vaultfestival.com/whats-on/rhubarb-ghetto/- Online Theatre producers The Show Must Go Online: https://robmyles.co.uk/theshowmustgoonline/- The National Theatre At Home: https://www.nationaltheatre.org.uk/ntathome- Chris Rock's opening monologue at the 2016 Oscars: https://youtu.be/kqhVNZgZGqQThe two podcasts Mark is involved with are:- Behind The Spine: https://www.behindthespine.co.uk/- End Of The Line: https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-z7pk5-e30e3d?You can hear Mark's previous appearance on the Human Risk podcast here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/mark-heywood-on-how-the-coronavirus-is-impacting-the-creative-industries/

When things go wrong in companies, it's usually accompanied by a sense of surprise on the part of senior management. Given we know that employing people will result in some form of Human Risk, wouldn't it be better if we could find a way to ensure there were no surprises? At least, not in areas where controls exist to mitigate the risk. That's what my guest Jim Oates explores with me on this episode. He's spent his career working in audit in Financial Services, so he's seen plenty of examples of the aftermath of things not going according to plan. His experience as an auditor led him to adopt a strategy of "No Surprises"; working to ensure the Board of Directors of the company aren't surprised by a significant loss or damage to the firm's reputation, due to an unexpected control failure. In our discussion, we explore some of the events that shaped Jim's career and what he learned from them. The insights he shares about human decision-making and how audit can help to mitigate the risks it poses are fascinating and very timely. Jim also played an important part in furthering my thinking about Human Risk. He was my boss at UBS when I evolved the idea of "Bringing Behavioural Science to Compliance" and supported me in pursuing the idea. As one of of the early sponsors of the ideas behind it, it's very fitting to have him as a guest on the podcast. To find out more about Jim and his work, visit his website: https://www.eventumrisk.com/During our discussion, Jim refers to:- CDOs: https://www.thebalance.com/cdos-collateralized-debt-obligations-3305822- LIBOR: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19199683- Kweku Adoboli: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19660659

How can we prevent poor decision-making at a time of stress, when human action can make a real difference? That's what my guest on this episode, Trisha Ferguson, helps to deliver. She's the CEO of Interaction Research Company (IRC), a firm that advises airlines on passenger safety. And more importantly, from my perspective, designs and produces passenger safety cards.I'm interested in the cards because they effortlessly combine artistic design with a high degree of functionality. Not only are they an amazing piece of Compliance design, they’re also a critical tool for mitigating Human Risk. Which is why they’re a regulatory requirement. If a plane doesn’t have safety cards on board, then it’s not allowed to take off. That’s because one of the biggest risks, when there’s an incident on an aircraft, is human - how we react, makes all the difference. So if you were looking for something iconic that neatly summarised Human Risk and my mission to bring behavioural science to compliance, then the airline safety card is probably it. Which is why I wanted to find out more about how the cards are created and approved for use.In our discussion, we explore the history of IRC and how Trisha came to own the company. She explains the complexities involved in making the cards and the factors that need to be considered. We explore the psychology behind the design and the process they go through to get them into planes. Airline Safety Cards are also the inspiration for the soon-to-relaunch www.human-risk.com which will have an airline safety card theme. For more on IRC visit - https://ircprint.com/ and http://safetycards.com/#aboutFor Trisha's blog visit - https://ircprint.com/2020/06/30/intro-crisis/

What can learn from the study of Behavioural Science? Like many people in the field, I fell into BeSci long after finishing my academic studies. Back then, it wasn't an option that one could study in any case. But now you can, which is why I thought it would be interesting to get a forward-looking perspective from those that are. On this episode, I speak to Sarah Bowen & Merle Van Den Akker. They're both PhD students with a strong interest in Behavioural Science and they're the hosts of Questioning Behaviour, a BeSci podcast that explores things from the perspective of those studying and researching it. In addition, in her Money On The Mind blog, Merle explores the BeSci dynamics behind the financial decisions we make.Our discussion explores their thoughts on the study of BeSci and where things might go in future.Questioning Behaviour - https://questioningbehaviour.podbean.com/Money On The Mind - https://www.moneyonthemind.org/

What's the difference between Risk and Uncertainty? That's what my guest on this episode, Dr Colin Lawrence, helps me to explore. He's spent his entire career looking at risk and has been a Chief Risk Officer, Regulator, Risk Adviser and Academic. So he's got real experience of what it means to consider risk and manage it.In the episode, we explore what risk means in the context of COVID, water shortages, geopolitics, history and a number of social trends. Colin provides some fascinating insights that will stimulate your mind and get you thinking about risk in new ways. A common manifestation of Human Risk, is an inability to manage risk; the very things that get us into trouble, are the very things that make us bad at managing risk!You can find out more about Colin and get in touch with him via LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-lawrence-non-executive-director-board-advisor/or via email colin.lawrence[at]riskandfinancial.comDuring our discussion, Colin mentions a number of books:Professor Yuval Noah Harari - 'Lessons for the 21st Century'.https://uk.bookshop.org/books/21-lessons-for-the-21st-century/9781784708283Kim Stanley Robinson - 'The Ministry of the Future' https://uk.bookshop.org/books/the-ministry-for-the-future/9780356508832Robert Harris - 'Munich'https://uk.bookshop.org/books/munich-the-price-of-peace-may-be-too-high-to-bear/9781784751852He also highlights two articles:A New Yorker article on the water shortage in Cape Town:https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/coming-to-terms-with-a-life-without-waterA NY Times article on the lawyer who set up her own law firm to allow her to fulfil her parenting obligations:https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/03/business/a-woman-led-law-firm-that-lets-partners-be-parents.htmlAnd finally a podcast by Ezra Klein on Vox: https://www.vox.com/ezra-klein-show-podcast

What happens when employees have little or no respect for their organization's Compliance Program? It's obviously bad, but how bad? That's what my guest on this episode Professor David Hess has researched. And the answer is 'really bad'; far from it simply being a case of wasted money and effort, it actually increases the likelihood of unethical behaviour. How this happens, and what we can do to prevent it, is what we discuss in this episode. David also shares some of his perspectives on Compliance and how the function can be more effective in delivering its mandate.David Hess is a Professor of Business Law and Business Ethics at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan. His research focuses primarily on the role of the law in ensuring corporate accountability. His publications in this area have analyzed the use of non-financial reporting by corporations; efforts to combat corruption in international business; the link between corruption and business and human rights; and the role of compliance and ethics programs in creating more ethical corporate cultures. To find out more about David's research visit his website: http://webuser.bus.umich.edu/dwhess/You can read David's article Chipping Away at Compliance: How Compliance Programs Lose Legitimacy and its Impact on Unethical Behavior here: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/bjcfcl/vol14/iss1/4/

What can we learn from Behavioural Interventions that fail? That's what my guest on this episode, Dr Magda Osman set out to discover in some recent research. We often hear about 'nudges' that work well to change behaviour, but what about those that don't? Might things that haven't gone according to plan, actually prove to be useful?The answer is 'yes'. And that's what Magda and I set out to explore in our discussion. Her research ethos is to "take a critical eye to well-accepted views and challenge the status quo". As a result, her research interests cover a range of areas that include decision-making, learning, problem-solving, biases, risk and uncertainty, agency and control, and the unconscious.As well as her research, we also talk about Unconscious Bias training and explore other areas where behavioural interventions might not be as effective as we might expect.For a summary of the research I recommend this article: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2258396-what-can-we-learn-from-failed-attempts-to-change-peoples-behaviour/You'll find the research here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2020.09.009For more on Magda and her research, visit her website: http://www.magdaosmanresearch.co.uk/