The Human Risk Podcast

What does MTV have to do with fighting HIV? My guest on this episode Professor Eliana La Ferrara of Bocconi University in Milan knows the answer and she joins me to tell me more about her work as a development economist. Her specialism is in applied work, meaning that she collects and analyses data, mostly from families or individuals in poor or disadvantaged locations. And she tries to understand from this data, which policies might be effective in fighting poverty.In our discussion, we explore how Eliana became interested in researching the use of TV “edutainment” to change attitudes and behaviours in developing countries. That led her to work with colleagues from the World Bank and MIT, on a study of how MTV Shuga, a television series shown in Nigeria, might change knowledge and attitudes towards HIV and risky sexual behaviour. The good news is that it is extremely effective. Why, how and the lessons we can learn from that, is what Eliana explains to me on the show.You can find the World Bank sponsored research paper Eliana refers to here: https://bit.ly/3wKjA7uFor more on Eliana and her area of research: https://faculty.unibocconi.eu/elianalaferrara/

On this episode, I'm tackling two seemingly unrelated topics: how regulators use Behavioural Science & Depolarization. What combines the two is my guest Alex Chesterfield. She's a Behavioural Scientist that has worked inside a regulator, looking at the effectiveness of regulation on consumer behaviour and is the co-founder of something called The Depolarization Project.In the first half of our discussion, Alex talks to me about her time at the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), one of the UK's financial services regulators. While she was there, she deployed Behavioural Science in the service of regulation, asking the simple question as to whether rules that were designed to deliver a particular outcome — most obviously, in protecting consumers — was actually having the desired impact. We discuss the challenges faced in doing this and what lessons Alex learned from her time there.In the second part of the discussion, we explore The Depolarization Project, which explores the idea of disagreement and promotes thought about the things that divide us. Alex explains how the project came about and talks about the book and podcast that has come from their work. To find out more about Behavioural Science at the FCA, visit https://www.fca.org.uk/insight/future-behavioural-science-ambition-dose-humilityTo learn more about The Depolarization Project and the associated podcast Changed My Mind, visit: https://www.depolarizationproject.com/

Why, when solving problems, do we tend towards addition, rather than subtraction? Not in a mathematical sense, but rather in terms of how we think about things? That's what my guest on this episode Dr Leidy Klotz, has been exploring in some research and it forms the subject of his new book Subtract: The Untapped Science of Less.Having had an interest in the subject, Leidy observed how his son Ezra approached a problem they faced while building a Lego model together. You can hear about that in the episode. It prompted Leidy to explore why our natural tendencies drive us to pile on “to-dos” but not to consider “stop-doings.” We create incentives for good behaviour but don’t get rid of obstacles to it. We collect new and improved ideas but don’t prune the outdated ones. Every day, across challenges big and small, we neglect a basic way to make things better: we don’t subtract.It's highly relevant to human risk because if we're only looking at additive solutions, we're likely to miss subtractive ones, making our decision-making poorer as a result. And if you're in a profession like Compliance, you'll know all about how much easier it is to add rules, controls and policies, than it is to remove them. THe same applies to Regulators, Lawyers and a host of other jobs. So whether you're listening to discover better ways of improving your personal life, or for work, you'll enjoy this conversation.Leidy is the Copenhaver Associate Professor at the University of Virginia. His research is filling in underexplored overlaps between engineering and behavioral science, in pursuit of more sustainable built environment systems. He is also a former professional football (soccer) player, something I discussed with him on the show.To find out more about Leidy & Subtract: https://www.leidyklotz.com/To learn more about Leidy's research on Subtraction, I recommend: https://behavioralscientist.org/subtract-why-getting-to-less-can-mean-thinking-more/https://socialsciences.nature.com/posts/people-systematically-overlook-subtractive-changesTo see the YouTube video he refers to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y32OpI2_LM

Why do we have arguments & why might they actually be a good thing?That's what my guest, Ian Leslie, explores in his new book Conflicted: Why Arguments Are Tearing Us Apart and How They Can Bring Us Together. In it, he explains how conflict is the secret of happy relationships, the way companies can build collaborative cultures and what lies behind some of the greatest scientific and creative breakthroughs.Ian’s first career was in advertising, as a creative strategist for some of the world’s biggest brands, at ad agencies in London and New York. Nowadays he’s a writer and author of acclaimed books on human behaviour. He’s also got a wonderful newsletter - details below.To find out more about Ian, visit his website - http://ian-leslie.com/For more on Conflicted see - http://ian-leslie.com/conflicted/To subscribe to Ian's excellent newsletter The Ruffian - https://ianleslie.substack.com/

What are companies here to do? Make profit? Or is there something more? That's what my guest on this episode, John Rosling, is here to help me find out.On previous episodes, I've explored the idea that companies don't always get the best out of their employees, and that a lot of human risk crystallises within organisations, because of the disconnect between individual priorities and the stated organisational priorities.John is the CEO of Contexis, a company that helps large organizations become more effective and productive. Their passion is around purpose in business and how companies can measure it. John's view is that if you get organisational purpose right, then you can drive human productivity, human happiness and organisational effectiveness. By implication, therefore, also reduce human risk.In a career spanning over 30 years, John has worked at large companies such as Unilever and Diageo, as well as smaller startups. In our discussion, we explore what Purpose is, why it matters and what we can do to ensure organizations have it.For more on John & Contexis 👉 https://www.contexis.com/imt_team/john-rosling/

How is our perception of risk impacted by ethical dynamics? That's what I'm exploring on this episode with my guest Dr Cailin O'Connor.She's the co-author of a recent draft research paper that highlights some interesting findings in relation to the risk perception of COVID. The paper explains that research subjects thought that people were less at risk of COVID infection when engaged in morally good actions, and more likely to catch COVID while doing morally bad things. In other words, people’s risk judgments are systematically skewed. Cailin is a philosopher of biology and behavioral sciences, philosopher of science, and evolutionary game theorist. She’s an Associate Professor in the Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science and a member of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Science at UC Irvine.On this episode, I speak to Cailin about the COVID research, before moving on to look at two other areas of her work. We explore previous work she’s done on Misinformation and some future work she’s interested in exploring around how healthcare risks are communicated. For reasons she explains, she’s got a personal interest in it.To read the Twitter thread that drew my attention to the paper: https://twitter.com/cailinmeister/status/1390821582726066176?s=20You'll find the research pre-print here: https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/d64a8For more on Cailin and her areas of research: http://cailinoconnor.com/Cailin's co-authored book on Misinformation, called The Misinformation Age: http://cailinoconnor.com/the-misinformation-age/

This episode is the second half of a discussion between Paul Craven & Gerald Ashley. If you haven't listened to the first half (🎧 👉 https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-paul-craven-on-statistics-spreadsheets-scam-artists/) then I highly recommend you do so, though the episode does work on a standalone basis.On this episode, Paul & Gerald discuss:Ergodicity - hear my previous guest Luca Dellanna on this 🎧 👉 https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/luca-dellanna-on-ergodicity/Taylor Pearson on Russian Roulette - https://taylorpearson.me/ergodicity/John Allen Paulos - https://math.temple.edu/~paulos/Behaviour Lab - https://behaviourlab.com/Danish Physicist Per Bak - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Per_BakStonehenge - https://www.english-heritage.org.uk/visit/places/stonehenge/Matt Ridley - https://www.mattridley.co.uk/Cicero, On The Good Life - https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/260941/on-the-good-life-by-marcus-tullius-cicero/Herbert Simon - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_A._SimonTim Marshall, Prisoners of Geography - https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Prisoners-of-Geography/Tim-Marshall/9781501121470To find out more about my two guestsGerald: http://www.geraldashley.com/Paul: https://www.paulcraven.com/Previous episodes of this show featuring Gerald and Paul:Gerald - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-on-uncertainty/Gerald & Rory Sutherland Part One - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/rory-sutherland-gerald-ashley-on-networks-part-i/Gerald & Rory Sutherland Part Two - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-rory-sutherland-on-prosilience/Paul - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/paul-craven-on-magic-money-the-mind/

What do Statistics, Spreadsheets & Scam Artists have in common? They're all topics that my guests on this episode, Gerald Ashley & Paul Craven discuss as they explore how we make decisions. Both Gerald and Paul have previously appeared on the show (links below) - Gerald as an individual and a 'head to head' with Rory Sutherland and Paul as an individual guest. Since the episode with Gerald and Rory, proved to be so popular, I thought I'd invite Gerald and Paul onto the show together. This episode forms Part One of their discussion.Gerald specialises in Business Risk and Decision Making. His work concentrates on trying to understand decision making, risk-taking and human behaviour, in the face of uncertainty.Paul is an expert in behavioural science, decision making, investment and psychology, applying the inner operations of the mind to the economic worldSome of the topics, Gerald and Paul discuss include:- Kasparov vs Deep Blue Chess match: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_versus_Garry_Kasparov- Gerd Gigerenzer, a researcher and author on risk: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer- Herbert Simon on Satisficing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisficing- 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy', a book (and movie & TV series) by John LeCarre:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tinker_Tailor_Soldier_Spy- Frank Abagnale's 'Catch Me If You Can' (also a movie): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catch_Me_If_You_Can_(book)- Richard Littlejohn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Littlejohn- The Bavelas Experiments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_BavelasTo find out more about my two guestsGerald: http://www.geraldashley.com/Paul: https://www.paulcraven.com/Previous episodes of this show featuring Gerald and Paul:Gerald - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-on-uncertainty/Gerald & Rory Sutherland Part One - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/rory-sutherland-gerald-ashley-on-networks-part-i/Gerald & Rory Sutherland Part Two - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-rory-sutherland-on-prosilience/Paul - https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/paul-craven-on-magic-money-the-mind/

Why are many of the laws & regulations that are put in place, either ineffective or counter-productive? How can we make them more effective?That's the question that my guest on this episode, Professor Benjamin van Rooij of Amsterdam University, explores in a new book he's co-authored with Professor Adam Fine. The book isn't out until later this year, but Benjamin kindly agreed to join me to tell me more about it.Benjamin first appeared on the show last year, looking at COVID Compliance — exploring the effectiveness of government attempts to influence our behaviour. You'll find that episode here: 👉 https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/professor-benjamin-van-rooij-on-covid-compliance/On this episode, we catch up on his COVID research and then discuss his new book The Behavioural Code. You can find out more about that here 👉https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/676270/the-behavioral-code-by-benjamin-van-rooij/In our discussion, Benjamin highlights some of the ways in which the law influences us in ways we might not realise and explores how some traditional ideas about how we can get people to behave in a particular way are flawed - they either don't work or are counter-productive.What he has to say is fascinating for people whose job involves influencing others — so Compliance, Legal, Audit, HR, Comms — but also for each of us as citizens. With a better understanding of what works from a legal perspective, we can make smarter decisions about who we vote for.To learn more about Benjamin's work, visit his website 👉https://www.uva.nl/profiel/r/o/b.vanrooij/b.vanrooij.html?cbYou can also find him on Twitter: https://twitter.com/benfuzi

How can companies be better at managing the strategic risks they face in an uncertain world?This episode is part two of my discussion with Hans Læssøe on Strategic Risk. If you haven’t yet listened to Part 1 👉 https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/hans-lassoe-on-strategic-risk-part-one/ - then I recommend that you do that first.Having explored how Hans’ career evolved in Part 1 of our discussion, in this episode we look in more detail at the techniques and principles which Hans uses in his work. Hans now works as an independent risk consultant and trainer. You can find out more about his work 👉https://aktus.dk/