Much of the demand for automation in richer countries - whether it be for self-checkout machines or driverless trucks - is driven by labor scarcity. And as populations in these countries age, this scarcity will become more acute.  Yet, as Lant Pritchett highlights in a recent Foreign Affairs article, globally, labor remains abundant. Rather than devoting vital high-level scientific and technological knowledge as well as entrepreneurship to address these shortages, a far more efficient solution is to simply allow greater immigration from labor-abundant countries, whose workers would welcome these employment opportunities. Lant discusses the broad economic arguments for, as well as the political and social concerns against, greater international labor mobility in this EconoFact Chats episode.  Lant is research director of the Labor Mobility Partnerships. He has worked at the World Bank and has taught at Harvard, Oxford, and the London School of Economics.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank raised the specter of a broader financial and economic crisis. This seems to have been averted by the decision to ensure all deposits; but questions remain about banks’ risk-taking, the adequacy of regulation, and whether continuing interest rate hikes will further imperil the financial system. Moderating the rise in interest rates, however, counters the efforts to bring down inflation, which continues to be well above its target rate. Will the Federal Reserve recalibrate its efforts to tackling inflation? What do regulatory failures mean for future policies regarding banking supervision and oversight?  To discuss these issues Econofact Chats welcomes back Binyamin Applebaum of the New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post.

Inflation in the United States rose above 9 percent in the summer of 2022, its highest rate in over four decades. The Federal Reserve has aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. While the inflation rate is declining, it remains well above the target rate of 2%.  Did the Federal Reserve react too late to rising inflation? Were its subsequent policy moves appropriately restrictive? Will current policy lead to a recession, or can the Fed engineer a soft landing that brings down inflation without causing a recession? EconoFact Chats welcomes back Jeffrey Fuhrer to discuss these issues. Jeff is a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard's Kennedy School. He worked for almost four decades in the Federal Reserve System, including serving as Research Director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and as Special Advisor to that Bank’s President.

The rise of remote work has been among the more persistent labor-market changes engendered by COVID. Three years since the start of the pandemic, even as most social distancing mandates are lifted, many still work in virtual settings. What do we know about who continues to work from home, how much they work from home, and the kinds of jobs enabling this flexibility? What are the advantages and disadvantages for companies that allow remote work? And what does persistent work from home mean for urban commercial real estate? To discuss these issues, as well as his new book, Going Remote, EconoFact Chats welcomes back Matthew Kahn.  Matt is the Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Southern California.

The 20th century was defined in large part by the conflicts between free market-oriented ideas, and policies favoring government intervention to soften the effects of unbridled markets. It was also defined by broad increases in quality of life. Yet, even as material progress of the last 150 years greatly exceeded that of the previous thousands of years, it hasn't led to the utopia that people in earlier, more materially dire periods, believed would come about. Drawing on his new book 'Slouching Towards Utopia,' J. Bradford DeLong joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why. Brad is a Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy from 1993 to 1995. 'Slouching Towards Utopia,' was named one of the best business books of 2022 by The Financial Times.

Uncertainty affects companies’ investment and hiring decisions, as well as people’s choices about buying big-ticket durable goods like cars or houses. There are different types of uncertainty. Risk arises when you know the likelihood of outcomes but not what will occur, as happens with flipping a coin. Ambiguity reflects a situation in which the likelihood or effects of outcomes are much less clear, as with the consequences of COVID or climate change. Both play important, and somewhat distinct roles in decision-making. Nicholas Bloom (Stanford) joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week, to discuss the role of uncertainty, and its patterns across countries and time. Nick is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He was awarded a Guggenheim Fellowship in 2022. Note: This podcast was first posted on 19th February, 2023.

A central result from economic theory is that nations benefit from international trade (even as there is a recognition that not all people within a country may benefit). But recently there have been calls for the United States to restrict trade by creating incentives or rules that favor domestic production over purchases from abroad. Will these efforts ultimately strengthen or weaken the United States economy Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats to discuss this issue. Chad is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute, and the host of the podcast Trade Talks.

After reaching a four-decade high in June 2022, U.S. inflation has been on a steady downward trend. Part of the reason for this is the aggressive response of the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates. While this is good news, there are concerns that the Fed’s actions could push the economy into a recession, much like in the late 1970s and early 1980s, in the wake of the so-called 'Volcker disinflation.' What are the similarities and differences between high inflation in the 1970s and today? How have previous periods of high inflation, as well as the 'great moderation' -- the multi-decade long period of very low inflation -- informed the Fed's thinking in tackling the current crisis? And what might Fed policy look like moving forward, given the easing of inflation over the past half year? Dan Sichel joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions. Dan is the Stanford Calderwood Professor of Economics at Wellesley College. Prior to joining Wellesley, he worked at the Federal Reserve Board for over 20 years.

The UK's budget crisis last September led to a plunge in the value of the pound, the sacking of the Chancellor of the Exchequer after 39 days in office, and a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister. These events highlight how fiscal policies can have wide-spread political and economic consequences. As the U.S. Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner, what lessons might U.S. policy-makers draw from the British experience? How does failure to raise the debt ceiling affect faith in U.S. Treasury debt? And what are the rammifications of eroding trust in U.S. debt? Adam Posen joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Adam is the President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He served seven terms as an advisor to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, and a three-year term on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

The homicide rate in the U.S. is over seven times that of other industrialized nations. Gun deaths accounted for nearly 80% of all U.S. homicides in 2020. In contrast, gun deaths represented about one-sixth of all homicides in other industrialized countries. What interventions could prove effective in reducing gun violence in the U.S.? Are there ways to identify those at high risk, and reduce the likelihood of them becoming victims? Sara Heller and Max Kapustin join EconoFact Chats to discuss these critically important questions. Sara is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan, and Max is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Cornell University. Sara and Max’s research focuses on interventions to reduce crime, and improve life outcomes for disadvantaged youth.