EconoFact Chats

“Grexit,” Greece dropping out of the Eurozone, seemed the most likely outcome of that country’s debt crisis in the early 2010s. There were fears that Grexit would be followed by a more widespread splintering of the Eurozone. But Greece and its creditors came to an agreement that enabled the country to service its debt and contributed to its subsequent recovery (and the preservation of the Eurozone). In a striking turnaround, Greece was named the 2023 “Country of the Year” by The Economist magazine. Charles Dallara (Partners Group) recounts the resolution of this crisis, the Greek recovery, and his role in getting Greece and its creditors to come to agreement, in his new book 'Euroshock: How the Largest Debt Restructuring in History Helped Save Greece and Preserve the Eurozone,' which he discusses in this EconoFact Chats episode, along with the lessons of this experience for the current high-debt conditions today. Charles is Chairman and Advisory Partner at Partners Group. At the time of the Greek crisis he was the Managing Partner of the Institute for International Finance. Before that he spent nearly four decades working on international economic policy issues, including at the United States Treasury.

The spring 2024 edition of the IMF's influential World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects 'steady but slow' growth of the world economy over the next two years. But Maurice Obstfeld, widely recognized as among the world’s leading expert in international economics, notes that while the recovery from the pandemic has proved surprisingly resilient, the WEO forecast could be derailed by the buildup of unsustainable debt, rising great-power competition, the adverse effects of accelerating climate change or another pandemic. Maury is a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Professor of Economics Emeritus at UC Berkeley. He served as a member of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors, and from 2015 to 2018, as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund.

Michael Klein speaks with Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod about their new book, Rebellion, Rascals and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom Through the Ages, highlighting the challenges governments face when taxing their citizens, how taxes alter people's behavior, and the difficulty in assessing who bears the burden of a particular tax. Note: This podcast was first published on 29th March, 2021.

Argentina has, in the last 120 years, fallen from one of the richest countries in the world to one that has seen numerous episodes when national income cratered, multiple debt defaults (forcing it to turn repeatedly to the IMF for bailouts), and hyperinflation. What have been the sources of these crises? Are the radical plans of the country’s new president, Javier Milei, likely to turn the corner on the past? Alejandro Werner joins EconoFact Senior Advisor Charles Collyns to discuss the history of Argentina’s economy, the problems it currently faces, and its prospects for recovery. Currently Director of the Georgetown Americas Institute, Alejandro served as a senior official in the Mexican Finance Ministry, and subsequently as Director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department.

In 2019, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projected that net immigration in 2023 would total 1 million. More recent estimates from the agency put net immigration for 2023 at 3.3 million. How has increased immigration affected the post-COVID economic recovery in the U.S.? More broadly, what role does immigration play in the American economy? What parts of the economy are particularly dependent on non-native born workers? And with low birth rates, how important is immigration for continued economic growth, and for the solvency of Social Security and Medicare? Tara Watson joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Tara is a Professor of Economics at Williams College. She served as Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Treasury from 2015 to 2016, and is currently a Rubenstein Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

In the wake of COVID, many colleges dropped SAT and ACT test requirements. Recently however, schools including Dartmouth, Yale, and Brown have mandated standardized test scores once again. Could the move hurt less economically privileged applicants? David Deming joins EconoFact Chats to highlight that even though standardized tests can be gamed by more privileged students through extensive test preparation, and retaking of tests, they remain less biased than other factors that can help students stand out in the admissions process. And getting rid of standardized testing, or even going ‘test optional,’ could make the problem of privilege in college admissions worse, instead of better. David is the Isabelle and Scott Black Professor of Political Economy, and Academic Dean at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Economic analysis does not offer many answers when it comes to valuing efficiency gains versus disruptions to people and communities from changes brought about by international trade or technological change. Jeff Frieden joins EconoFact Chats to highlight that politics, while often messy, remains one of the only ways societies put a value on things economists can’t easily measure. Jeff is a Professor of Government at Harvard University. His research focuses on the politics of international economic relations.

At over $840 billion, the United States Department of Defense budget request for 2024 accounts for ~3% of national income, almost half of all Federal discretionary budget outlays, and over 35% of global military spending. Michael E. O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution joins EconoFact Chats to put these figures in historical context, and discuss how decisions about the size and type of defense expenditures the U.S. undertakes are made. Michael is a Senior Fellow and the Director of Research in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution. He also serves as a member of the Defense Policy Board at the U.S. Department of Defense.

Much of global trade in goods and services is denominated in U.S. dollars. The dollar is widely used for bilateral trade between countries other than the United States. And the use of the dollar is even more dominant in global financial transactions. What advantages accrue to the United States from the dominance of the dollar? Are there costs associated with it as well? Does the importance of the dollar require a special role for the Federal Reserve at times of crises? Linda Goldberg, a Financial Research Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. A leading expert on global banking, international capital flows, and the international roles of currencies, Linda previously served as Senior Vice President, the Head of Global Economic Analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics samples about 80,000 products and services each month to estimate headline inflation. But the published inflation rate, like many other aggregate statistics, masks very different price changes across categories of goods. What information can we glean from a more fine-grained look at price changes across more disaggregated categories of goods and services, or even particular products? EconoFact Chats welcomes back Alberto Cavallo to discuss insights from his analysis of over a billion prices, focusing on whether recent inflation dynamics across countries have followed similar patterns, how disaggregated numbers can help us understand when inflation turns higher or lower, and what's been happening with U.S. inflation most recently. Alberto is the Thomas S. Murphy Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School. He co-founded The Billion Prices Project, and Price Stats — the leading private source of inflation statistics in over 20 countries.