EconoFact Chats

The first half of 2025 has been marked by broadening macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. How is this uncertainty likely to affect the U.S. economy over the coming months? And over the longer term? Mark Zandi joins EconoFact Chats to point out that while an immediate recession is unlikely, policies on tariffs, university and research funding, immigration, the budget, and efforts to influence monetary policy can have corrosive effects on long term growth. Mark is the Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics. He serves on the board of directors of MGIC, the nation’s largest private mortgage insurance company, and is the lead director of Reinvestment Fund, one of the nation’s largest community development financial institutions.

The poverty rate among children is a crucial indicator of child well-being. Yet, the overall well-being of a child depends on more than just economic security. Education, health, and family and community, all play an important role. Leslie Boissiere of the Annie E. Casey Foundation joins EconoFact Chats to discuss the 2025 Kids Count Data Book report, which tracks trends in child well-being across these broad sets of indicators, disaggregated by geography, race and ethnicity. She notes encouraging reductions in child poverty, fewer teen births, more children with health insurance, and a rise in on-time high school graduation. Yet the latest data also shows a decline in reading and math scores, and an increase in chronic absenteeism. Leslie is the Vice President for External Affairs at the Annie E. Casey Foundation.

United States colleges and universities currently enrol about 900,000 international students, representing 5% of all students – although the percentage of foreign students varies widely across institutions. Many colleges and universities would be hurt by policies that limit the number of foreign students. The detrimental effects of these policies extend beyond institutions of higher education to local economies, companies that hire engineers, scientists, and programmers, and to the dynamism of the U.S. economy since immigrants educated in this country are vastly overrepresented as entrepreneurs. Furthermore, American higher education serves as an important source of soft power that bolsters America’s standing in the world. Arguments have been made about foreign students endangering national security and taking the places of American students. How should we weigh these concerns against the benefits of foreign students who represent an import export of services for this country? Nathan Grawe joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions. Nathan is the Lloyd P. Johnson-Norwest Professor of Economics at Carleton College. His most recent book is 'The Agile College: How Institutions Successfully Navigate Demographic Change.'

The Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs plays a key role in shaping how the United States engages with the world financial system. Jay Shambaugh, Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs in the Biden administration joins EconoFact Chats to discuss his time in office, focusing on negotiations with China over industrial subsidies and non-market trade barriers, foreign investments in sensitive US technologies, and the challenges of dealing with sovereign debt defaults given the wide array of lenders today. The discussion also focuses on the International Affairs Department's role in monitoring exchange rate policies, and its interactions with Congress, the White House, and other domestic agencies. Before his term as Undersecretary, Jay served on the Council of Economic Advisors. He is currently a Professor of Economics and International Affairs, and the Co-Director of the Institute for International Economic Policy at George Washington University.

Binyamin Appelbaum, a journalist at The New York Times, joins fellow journalists Scott Horsley (NPR), Larry Edelman (Boston Globe), and Heather Long (The Washington Post) to dissect pressing economic issues. They tackle the impact of the newly passed budget bill and the downgrade of U.S. debt, discussing implications for lower-income Americans. The panel delves into tariff volatility, looming recession threats, and the concerns over Medicaid work requirements. Their insights reveal how these factors could shape the future of American fiscal policy and global investment.

Since the mid-1990s, the U.S. social safety net has been geared towards policies that encourage and reward work. While steady jobs and decent wages are the surest routes out of poverty, evidence shows that safety-net work requirements rarely translate into higher employment among beneficiaries of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP–formerly known as “food stamps”). Diane Schanzenbach joins EconoFact Chats to explain how stricter mandates often push people off SNAP without pulling them into the labor market, a dynamic that becomes more relevant as Congress weighs bills that would make continued SNAP and Medicaid benefits contingent on having or actively seeking work. Diane is the Margaret Walker Alexander Professor of Human Development and Social Policy at Northwestern University. She is also a member of the Food and Nutrition Board of the National Academy of Science, Engineering and Medicine. She recently testified in front of the House Committee on Agriculture on the issue of increasing SNAP's mandatory work requirements.

This week, EconoFact Chats features an abridged version of the EconoFact Ask Me Anything Webinar held on April 22nd, featuring Maurice Obstfeld, former Chief Economist at the IMF, and a member of the Council of Economic Advisors. Maury answers questions on the role of international trade in the US economy, tariffs and their consequences, dollar weakness, and prospects for the U.S. and the global economy. EconoFact’s monthly Ask Me Anything Webinars are exclusively available to our Premium Subscribers. The modest $50 annual fee for becoming a Premium Subscriber supports EconoFact and its efforts to bring timely, accessible, unbiased, and nonpartisan analyses on important economic and social policy issues to the public. You can sign-up for a Premium Subscription at https://secure.touchnet.net/C21525_ustores/web/store_main.jsp?STOREID=157

Robert Lawrence, the Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School, dives into the decline of manufacturing jobs and its impact on those without college degrees. He discusses whether this decline is a natural evolution of economies and if manufacturing can still offer pathways to stable employment. Lawrence emphasizes the importance of policies like training programs and wage insurance to support job mobility and foster inclusive growth, all while considering the critical role of manufacturing in national defense and technology.

About one in five Americans receive retirement, survivor, disability, or supplemental income Social Security benefits. These payments represent a vital financial safety net, especially for retirees who have had modest lifetime earnings. This importance of Social Security makes reducing its benefits the “third rail” of American politics. But its pay-as-you-go structure – where today’s workers fund today’s retirees – threatens its fiscal solvency as fertility rates fall and aging baby boomers exit the labor force. Is there a way to keep the safety-net solvent? What's at stake if Social Security reform is unaddressed? Gopi Shah Goda joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Gopi is the Director of the Retirement Security Project, the Alice M. Rivlin Chair in Economic Policy, and Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at The Brookings Institution. She served as a Senior Economist for the Council of Economic Advisors in 2021 to 2022.

The U.S. dollar is the most widely used currency in global commerce. Many commodities are priced in dollars. Much of world trade in goods and services, as well as in financial instruments, is denominated in dollars, even when U.S. residents are not party to either side of the transaction. U.S. Treasury bonds have been the world’s safe-haven asset. Has the U.S. benefited from the dollar's role in international trade and finance? Is dollar dominance waning under current U.S. policies? If so, what are the likely consequences? Paul Blustein joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these issues. Paul is a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is the author of 'King Dollar: The Past and Future of the World's Dominant Currency.'