Schiff Sovereign Podcast

This discussion tackles the abandonment of principles in American governance, highlighting inconsistencies between political rhetoric and fiscal reality. It also reveals how Supreme Court decisions can shift power dynamics in policy implementation. The looming financial crisis and rising national debt draw attention, while a deeper dive into the fall in foreign bond investments raises alarms. Additionally, the podcast explores a shift towards gold as a strategic asset, uncovering undervalued investment opportunities amidst a volatile market.

Concerns about World War 3 are debated, with a focus on the U.S. military's deterrent power and its impact on adversaries like Iran. The discussion emphasizes the looming Social Security deficit, predicting significant benefit cuts if reforms aren’t made. Historical lessons on foreign engagements and the importance of thorough cost-benefit analyses are explored. Shifts in global central bank strategies towards gold highlight instability in the U.S. dollar. Potential investments in undervalued commodities are also discussed as people prepare for fiscal challenges.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-tlc4P0iDw Today’s topic is so far-reaching, deep, and important that we had to dedicate an entire podcast episode to it. Frankly, it is one of the most interesting we have ever done. With so much conflict in the world—and the potential for even more escalation, particularly in the Middle East—we have heard a lot of worry, concern, and even hyperbole in the media about “World War III.” I actually have the opposite view: that after the recent strikes and counter-strikes between Israel and Iran, I wholeheartedly believe that World War III is far less likely than it was even just a couple of months ago. Read that again: in the wake of growing conflict in the Middle East, and even with the potential for US involvement, World War III is less likely. In today’s podcast, I put on my old hat as an Army intelligence officer and discuss the Iranian order of battle, their weapons and defense systems, much of which, frankly, is derived from Chinese military technology. Over the past several days, that Iranian-based Chinese military tech was obliterated—completely overwhelmed by Israel’s precision strikes. And where did Israel get its technology from? Some of it is homegrown, of course, but the majority comes from the United States. So the way I look at this Israel-Iran conflict is almost like a live-fire exercise or war game that models what a real conflict between the United States and China might look like. And based on the results, it is not looking good for China—or Russia, for that matter. It leads me to the conclusion that no adversary nation wants to risk an armed conflict with the United States right now, lest they too get obliterated by America’s F-35s. Towards the end, we talk about whether or not the United States should be involved. I do not have the definitive answer. But I walk through the rational framework that I hope America’s leaders are using to make that kind of decision. There is not enough reason and rational decision-making in Washington these days. Too many politicians make knee-jerk, emotional reactions for the benefit of Twitter likes, rather than conducting a clear cost-benefit analysis. There is so much more we unpack in this episode—it is definitely worth a listen, and we hope you tune in to join us. Once again, you can listen in to the podcast here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-tlc4P0iDw And you can access the podcast transcript, here.

CLICK HERE to listen to today’s podcast. “Mostly peaceful” yet “occasionally violent” protesters across the US will hit the streets for “No Kings Day” this Saturday in support of the right for illegal immigrants to break the law. No big deal, just a little looting and property damage in the name of justice. But while the media fixates on the drama and conflict, they’re not talking about how this issue was completely avoidable and the result of a desperately broken immigration system. America has a laundry list of challenges. Deficits are too high. Social Security desperately needs reform. Medicare needs to be completely overhauled. The list goes on and on. Immigration is another major problem. The system is totally broken. Everyone in Congress knows this is true— there’s not a single Senator or Representative who would stand behind the current immigration system. Simultaneously, most everyone in Congress generally agrees that the US needs hard-working, law-abiding immigrants who can bring capital, labor, professional skills, or entrepreneurial abilities. This means that immigration stands nearly alone among America’s big challenges where both sides are largely in agreement. They don’t agree about bringing down the deficit. They don’t agree about Social Security and Medicare. They don’t agree about a number of social issues. But they do agree on immigration… making it THE most fixable of America’s major problems. And fixing it would be incredibly useful. If there were actually a straightforward, simple path to legal residency, millions of people could become law-abiding taxpayers. More small businesses, more truck drivers, more researchers, more engineers, more construction workers, more data scientists. Faster economic growth, higher savings, greater production, more investment. All of this would be an unequivocal win for the economy… and frankly it’s exactly what the federal government needs to pull out of its fiscal nosedive. Yet, inexplicably, no one seems to want to fix the most fixable problem in America. Both sides agree on both the problem and solution. But instead everyone is battling it out… whether in the streets or on Twitter. What a waste. We get into all of this in today’s podcast episode. We also discuss: How the US is following Europe’s self-destructive lead Why Western Civilization is in decline How these dysfunctional policies are showing up in the price of gold How our thesis on gold stocks has come true— especially over the last couple months In fact, we’re running a flash sale on The 4th Pillar investment research newsletter which has identified several of these precious metals company that have surged in value by as much as 153% in as little as three months. It’s not quite too late— we still have two gold companies that haven’t yet taken off, but are primed to follow the same catalysts. Which is why we chose to provide one more opportunity to join The 4th Pillar for a discount. CLICK HERE to learn more. CLICK HERE to listen to the podcast. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBj8BwnI5h4 The podcast transcript is available here.

CLICK HERE to listen to our latest podcast. Think for a moment about how many times something has been whipped up into a national issue by either the big legacy media or prominent politicians. The public has been subjected to what they call “a national conversation” about everything from transgender bathrooms to Confederate monuments to abortion rights to climate change. Many of these issues only affect a few people. Sometimes more. But not once have these same media or political personalities elevated the ONE issue that could deeply and adversely impact hundreds of millions of people over the next few years. I’m talking about the US national debt… and its runaway trajectory that could easily become a major financial crisis in a few years. The impact crater for a US debt crisis is gargantuan. 350 million people in the US would have their lives turned upside down. Dozens of countries who rely on the US financial system would suffer tremendous pain. Billions of people would be affected. Yet there’s hardly a word about it. Far more ink has been spilled debating who should use which bathroom. It’s crazy when you think about it. Many of those same people who should be elevating this issue are now complaining that Elon Musk did a “complete 180” because he thinks the $2 trillion projected deficit from the new tax/spending bill is an “abomination”. I don’t see how this is a 180. Before, during, and after the election, Elon has been laser-focused on personally trying to fix America’s biggest threat: the ticking debt time bomb. His message hasn’t changed. And the guy sacrificed plenty of time, money, and reputation to personally try and stop the catastrophe that will come if these deficits aren’t dealt with. At least a few other prominent voices are finally echoing Elon’s warning—like Jamie Dimon, CEO of the world’s biggest bank. That’s progress. Because the legacy media sure as hell won’t start this conversation on its own. And that’s exactly why it’s hard to imagine we’ll hit the critical mass of voters needed to force politicians to do the right thing and tackle the deficits. That’s what we dig into in today’s episode. We break down how even supposedly serious financial media—like the Wall Street Journal—refuses to report on just how dire this situation really is. One recent piece from the Journal even mocked people for buying gold to protect themselves from the obvious outcome of inflation. This is utterly hilarious, of course, given that gold has been one of the world’s best performing asset classes for this entire CENTURY. But, hey, to the Journal, I guess we’re all just a bunch of idiots. Today’s podcast also covers: How everyone loves spending cuts… until you threaten their sacred cow (like taxpayer-funded Sesame Street) What runaway interest costs mean for your future—and to the future of the US dollar Why politicians won’t act until there’s a full-blown crisis—and what that will probably look like That the debt problem is “solvable”—and why JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon agrees with the solution we’ve been saying all along Why slashing regulations needs to be part of that solution Why strategic assets like gold, silver, uranium, and platinum are now more important than ever. You can listen in here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_LvYawIJXc You can access the podcast transcript here.  

Travis Stice is not one of those rare corporate CEOs who is a household name around the world… like Warren Buffett. But the two share a similar ethos. Buffett famously quipped, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” which was ultimately a nod to the cyclical nature of markets and the economy. As surely as night follows day, and autumn/winter follow summer, bad times follow good… and then good times follow bad. Travis Stice understands this cyclicality all too well. As the founder/CEO of a large, pure-play Permian basin shale company (Diamondback Energy), he has seen ridiculously wild swings in the oil market, literally from nearly $150 per barrel all the way down to MINUS $40 per barrel, all within the past 15-20 years. So his warnings on the oil market are undoubtedly worth hearing. Stice penned an update to his shareholders earlier this week that bears special attention. And in it, he warned of the following: Over the past fifteen years, the US energy sector has provided extraordinary benefits to the US economy and American consumers. Rising oil production— thanks almost exclusively to shale producers— has kept energy prices low, driven job growth and exports, increased GDP, and filled government tax coffers. In 2024 alone, Texas collected $27 billion in state tax revenue from the oil and gas industry— more than the total tax revenue of more than 34 states. Yet oil production costs in the US have risen dramatically over the past decade. And tariffs make oil production significantly more expensive. There are further geological headwinds preventing further expansion; many shale resources are reaching their peak— or are already past their peak production. As a result of these factors, US oil production is now falling. Key metrics like crew counts and rig counts are down by as much as 20%. Simultaneously, oil is cheap right now. Adjusted for inflation— and adjusted for the cost of drilling— oil is nearly the cheapest it has been in decades (aside from the pandemic). With such cheap prices, there will be very little exploration for new oil… which is really bad for US energy independence, and likely means much higher prices in the future. Stice sums it up by saying, “This will have a meaningful impact on our industry and our country.” This is the topic of our latest podcast episode— and, candidly, the future of energy is pretty critical to understand. Oil may be cheap now, but this will likely be short-lived, and we could see a major price spike down the road— especially if the US dollar is displaced as the global reserve currency. We invite you to listen in to today’s podcast here. https://youtu.be/vG8fOhAeeTQ?si=wkO0LQB6QeoUWIp- You can access the podcast transcript here.

CLICK HERE to listen to today’s podcast. In today’s podcast, we explore the rare phenomenon of simultaneous declines in the stock market, bond market, and currency market—a powerful signal of capital flight out of the US. We talk about when and where this has happened before, and why the Federal Reserve’s diminishing control over interest rates won’t fix it. We also discuss what higher rates mean for the commercial real estate market, and how that reverberates through the banking system. And we answer the question: is gold overbought, and inching towards a correction? The podcast also covers: Why gold, not Bitcoin, remains the ultimate safe haven for central banks. Why the US dollar’s dominance is fading—and what comes next. The case for gold stocks over physical gold in today’s environment. Give it a listen here. https://youtu.be/wSWaYZiONgY The transcript of this podcast can be accessed here.

In the two weeks since “Liberation Day”, we’ve received plenty of very smart, thoughtful questions from our readers. So today we recorded a special Q&A podcast to cut through the chaos and confusion these new trade measures have sparked in the markets. We answer: Is the President’s top economic adviser correct that the US dollar’s reserve status is “hurting” the US economy? What’s happening with gold? Why did it initially drop, and then soar? Can the BRICS bloc switch entirely to yuan trade settlement, and, if so, who wins? Do foreign countries actually own US debt— or does the US hold all the cards through third-party custodians? What’s with the historic whipsaw in Treasury bond yields, and how big of a deal is this? Why would China buy Treasuries at the highest possible price, only to lose tons of money when they sold? Can China afford to weaponize their dollar reserves—or are they shooting themselves in the foot? And… humorously, why I think Jeff Bezos deserves the Nobel Peace Prize… You can listen in below. https://youtu.be/vYgSXw_PuME Podcast transcript can be accessed here. Any other questions, just let us know.

A deep dive into the escalating economic war between the U.S. and China reveals troubling trends as China dumps U.S. bonds and buys euros, shifting global financial dynamics. Discussions reveal how stock market fluctuations directly impact government revenues and capital gains taxes. As bond yields rise due to supply and demand, the hosts draw parallels to historical market reactions. The episode emphasizes the precarious balance of international relations, highlighting how financial maneuvers can signal deeper geopolitical tensions.

Governments love to tell you tariffs are about “protection”. But protection from what? More affordable goods? A higher quality of life? In today’s podcast, we dig into the many, many unforeseen consequences of the new tariff policies. For example: Examples from countries where I’ve lived which have heavy tariffs and import duties— and how those countries are vastly worse off as a result. Their citizens are poorer and less prosperous. That’s because taxing something always leads to less of it… which ultimately means a decline in standards of living. Hooray tariffs!! They just slapped some of the highest tariffs on products the US doesn’t even make— like socks from Vietnam or underwear from Bangladesh. Do they really want America to be a ‘socks and underwear economy’? Is this really the future of economic growth? And even if so, where are they going to get the workers to staff those factories? Are America’s 20-year olds, who, heretofore have been posting butt-selfies on Instagram for a living, really going to put down their iPhones to go work in factories making socks and underwear? Plus there are painfully obvious reasons why American-made goods will become more expensive… due to tariffs on raw materials. We can’t imagine how big the customs bureaucracy will become to enforce tariffs… let alone the complexity and confusion, when, say, a Swiss-owned vessel sailing under a Panamanian flag crewed by Danes and Filipinos carries chromite from Zimbabwe, granite from Mozambique, and graphite from Tanzania into a US port… And then there’s the golden opportunity that tariffs give China to assert global leadership. April 2, 2025 may be the date that future historians mark as the day American dominance ended. Why tariffs are just the first phase… and how this escalates from trade wars, to capital controls… loss of visa-free travel, cyber attacks, and more. You can listen in here. https://youtu.be/CLc4XAiSO4E You can access the podcast transcript here.