One Decision

For our end-of-year review, we analyzed the big events and decisions made in 2022 - the headline blockbusters that dominated the headlines: Putin’s war in Ukraine, Xi’s third term, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and the surprising United States midterm elections. But what about the choices made that flew under the radar? Or the choices that needed to be made in 2022, but were ignored? One Decision is joined by a panel of leading journalists to discuss a momentous year and the stories that you may have missed.One Decision has been selected as a finalist for the 1st Annual Signal Listener’s Choice Award for Best Conversation Starter. Please follow this link to vote now: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2022/individual-episodes/general/best-conversation-starter

2022 started with the White House warning that Putin planned to invade Ukraine. Many were skeptical. But in this year's most significant decision survey of more than 100 journalists, the consensus is in: Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was the biggest decision of 2022. Some of the other decisions will surprise you and might end up having more impact in 2023. In this roundup of the biggest stories of the year, we examine them all as we end one year and move on to the next. One Decision is joined in London by The Economist's Anne McElvoy, Semafor's Prashant Rao, and Bloomberg's Maria Tadeo. 

Jeremy Bowen, International Editor at the BBC sits down with One Decision shortly after returning from the Ukrainian frontline, having been embedded with troops as government forces retook control of the occupied city of Kherson last month. A huge victory for Kyiv and a humiliating setback for Putin, who has this week admitted on television that his 'special operation' is likely to take a long time to complete, and tried to downplay rumors swirling of a second mobilization for more soldiers to join his invasion. Meanwhile, United States intelligence says that the Russians and Ukrainians are likely to pause the fighting over the bitter winter period - though aerial bombardment on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities is causing devastation for civilians facing freezing temperatures with no heating, water, or electricity. The United Kingdom's Defence Ministry says that the Russians may be preparing to attack more cities close to the areas they control in the east of Ukraine. As always, we will have an analysis by One Decision's Sir Richard Dearlove, the former chief of MI6.

The United States' last legislative elections surprised many political onlookers in the country. Unlike long-standing precedent, where the president's party usually suffers severe losses during these midterm elections, the Democrats actually held control of the Senate and narrowly lost the House of Representatives. We bring together President Donald Trump's former Communications Director Alyssa Farrah Griffin together with Johanna Maska, a veteran of President Obama's Director of Press Advance. They offer a special post-mortem on the gains, losses, and the challenging roads that lie ahead for both parties over the next two years. These prominent pundits for their parties provide unvarnished and at times unexpected analysis of who may stand for the presidency in 2024, along with the international implications of these historic elections.

The global supply chain has taken a battering since COVID. But it’s not just about how long you have to wait for your Playstation - the disruption to global trade has illuminated how dependent we all are on other countries for necessary goods. It’s a reality that could also have national security implications, as many countries in Europe who rely on imported gas from certain hostile counties in their neighbourhood, are swiftly finding out. Brian Wenck, the CEO of Flat World Global Solutions, a global supply chain and logistics firm, walks us through the butterfly effects of supply chain disruption - why China shipping PPE to Africa and America meant that Europeans couldn’t get their electronics for months. And co-host Sir Richard Dearlove joins us to explain why all of the above should give us concerns for our national security too. 

Hundreds of people in Iran have been killed after the death of a 22-year-old woman sparked the biggest uprising in the country for years. More than 15,000 have been arrested in women-led protests demanding human rights, freedoms - and an end to Iran’s oppressive laws concerning women. The regime has accused the protests of being “foreign-backed riots”, meanwhile, the niece of the Supreme Leader has spoken out against what she described as the “murderous, child-killing regime” in Tehran. One Decision speaks to Iranian journalist Negar Mortazavi to hear more about the situation in the country. 

For our third installment on China at a crossroads, we look at where President Xi Jinping is positioning China in the world order and what his politics means for Chinese expansionism, influence, and aggression in the wider region. Is he likely to make a move on Taiwan? Will the contested areas in the seas around China be a new arena for hostilities? Will the US and China eventually be forced to go head-to-head, or is there too much financial incentive to cooperate? Brig. Gen. David Stilwell was the American Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and an Air Force veteran of 35 years. A fluent Chinese and Korean speaker, he also served as Defense Attache at the US Embassy in Beijing and has been a close watcher of Chinese politics ever since. He sits down with One Decision for a look at China's place in the world at the beginning of Xi's third term, with our Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, providing exclusive analysis on what he thinks the world should do in response.

This year's COP27 in Egypt gave hope to some, finally a summit on climate change on the African continent, home to dozens of countries that face the dangers of rising sea levels, as well as desertification and droughts due to the destabilizing effects of global warming. But delegates had little to cheer about after the global meeting concluded - the creation of a fund for loss and damage for poorer nations was one small win, but nothing was agreed on for the phasing out of fossil fuels or emissions that made any meaningful difference since the last pledges made at COP26 in Glasgow. The EU's Green Chief summed up the conference saying "The world will not thank us when they hear only excuses tomorrow." In this special episode of One Decision, as the world fails to act, we go to two nations ravaged by the effects of climate change - the Pacific Island Nation of Kiribati and Pakistan. 

China’s imports and exports jolted to a halt earlier this month - marking the first contraction since the pandemic struck in 2020. At a time of worldwide surging inflation and central banks everywhere raising interest rates to painful levels, the “miracle of growth” that powered much of the world’s prosperity these last two decades is causing growing concern.For the second installment of our three-part series looking in depth at China at a crossroads, One Decision considers the economic crises that could be facing the country - and the world. George Magnus, former Chief Economist at UBS, now author and research associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, explores whether China can bounce back in the coming months.

As the G20 was underway this week, global attention sharply focused on a tiny Polish village near the Ukrainian border. News came that a missile had killed two local residents. Russia insists it played no part in the incident, but as investigations progress, U.S. President Joe Biden, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and Polish President Duda all said preliminary findings indicate the explosion came from a Ukrainian air defense missile. What does this mean for Ukrainians, their supporters in the West, and Vladimir Putin? One Decision's Sir Richard Dearlove, former head of MI6 considers how this conflict is increasingly at risk of spilling beyond Russia's and Ukraine's borders.