One Decision

Turkey’s longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing what many describe as his toughest election yet. On Sunday, May 14th polls will open for presidential and parliamentary elections, and amid a dire economic crisis in the country, his prospects are in doubt. His leading rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu is a mild-mannered and bookish elderly lawmaker who is presenting himself as a man of the people, and the polar opposite to the incumbent. Unlike Erdogan - the poster boy for populist politics - who has shunned closer ties with the European Union and the West and courted Vladimir Putin, Kilicdaroglu could lead Turkey in a different direction. As one of the mightiest armies in NATO, straddling Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, Turkey is a strategically important nation, and how the country votes could have implications for us all. One Decision’s Julia Macfarlane and Sir Richard Dearlove, along with the former United States Ambassador to Turkey David Satterfield and Turkish academic and author Gonul Tol discuss what’s at stake. International Intrigue is a <5min daily newsletter written by former diplomats. They scan over 600 sources a day so you don't have to. Sign up to join 50,000 global thinkers.

The United States and Ukraine have strongly denied any involvement in an alleged drone assassination attempt against Vladimir Putin this week. According to Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, two drones were reportedly downed by Russian air defences above the Kremlin, the fortress which is the heart of the government. One Decision’s Julia Macfarlane and Sir Richard Dearlove analyze the incident, the possibility it could be a false flag operation by Russia to escalate the war, and how Moscow could retaliate against Kyiv.

One Decision's Sir Richard Dearlove was a guest of the Kyiv government during the last week of April - coinciding with the day that Russia launched its biggest air strikes on Ukraine in two months. Sir Richard reveals the details of his unfortunate night spent in a bomb shelter in Kyiv, what he learned from conversations on the ground with high-level government officials, Ukraine's focus on NATO's upcoming summit in Vilnius, preparations for the long awaited 'spring offensive' and why the Discord intelligence leaks worked to Ukraine's advantage.

Former Director of Global Engagement in the Obama White House, Brett Bruen joins to host our weekly special One More Decision to provide analysis on President Joe Biden's announcement—that at 80 years old he will seek another term as president setting up a potential Trump vs. Biden rematch in 2024. Brett speaks with Johanna Maska, the former Director of Press Advance at the White House during the Obama administration. Maska shares an insider view on the personal side of Joe Biden, what makes him tick, insights on his campaign style and how staffers made sure he stayed on script. And how will the world view a potential Biden vs Trump rematch, and if a divisive presidential election poses the greatest threat to the US.

If Donald Trump were to return to office in 2025 he would find that NATO, the target of so many of his scathing comments, is now more closely resembling the kind of alliance the former President said he wanted. It is more muscular, fed by bigger budgets paid for by its constituent European parts. And as NATO changes, Japan and Germany have shifted away from their postwar military restraint in the face of a raging war in Europe and the growing threat from China. One Decision sits down with Trump’s NATO Ambassador Kay Bailey Hutchison for her view on its dramatic transformation, if she thinks the US or Europe deserves the credit and how a divisive 2024 presidential election could affect Europe’s security.

Former Director of Global Engagement in the Obama White House Brett Bruen joins to host our weekly special One More Decision to provide analysis on the violent clashes between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary group, Rapid Support Force (RSF). Brett speaks with Ambassador Cameron Hume who ran the U.S. Embassy in Khartoum for his inside take on foreign influence in the conflict, whether sanctions would make a difference, and the logistics behind evacuating thousands of people amid intense fighting between Sudan's warring factions.

The biggest porn upload site Pornhub is facing a slew of lawsuits by women who accuse the site of enabling and profiting from sexual exploitation. The advent of the internet means that the abuse of victims of human rights violations including rape and violence now, arguably, is compounded - every time someone views the material. To get a sense of the scale of the issue of trafficking and where these long chains of abuse can begin, we speak with Laila Mickelwait who leads the campaign to shut down Pornhub, and Nick Grono, CEO of Freedom Fund on where vulnerable people are targeted around the world.

Former Director of Global Engagement in the Obama White House Brett Bruen joins to host a special One More Decision to provide analysis on the discovery of a young Air Force reservist's role in stealing over a hundred secret documents and publishing them online. Bruen takes us inside the American security clearance system and looks at whether after so many intelligence issues, allies are now going to be less likely to share their sensitive insights with Washington.

Russia says it will “not tolerate pressure” from the U.S. over detained WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, a Russian senior official has warned. Washington has recently escalated his case, officially designating him as “wrongfully detained” - meaning he is now seen as a hostage. As Bloomberg reports that Putin himself personally approved his detention, there are growing questions on what price the U.S. is willing to pay to free yet another American taken by Russia. And with each exchange, does the risk of incentivizing Russia to claim more hostages grow? We speak with New York Times Moscow correspondent Valerie Hopkins, a good friend of Evan Gershkovich who left Moscow shortly after his arrest, and Jason Rezaian who was wrongly held in Iran on espionage charges while serving as Tehran bureau chief for the Washington Post.

Bonus episode from the One Decision team: Yevgeny Prigozhin, the infamous boss of the Wagner mercenary group, claimed a big victory this week - that his fighters had taken substantial control of the contested city of Bakhmut in Ukraine, and that it had been “legally captured”. However, this is not necessarily good news for the Kremlin. Putin’s once close ally has been badmouthing the Russian military - complaining about bad tactics, logistics and poor planning by the Russian defence chiefs leaving soldiers hungry, ill-equipped and unprepared for battle. After a mysterious assassination of a blogger in a cafe Prigozhin owns, One Decision’s Julia Macfarlane and Sir Richard Dearlove discuss if the noose is tightening on Putin’s old friend, and at what point is he too much of a liability for the Russian leader?