The Grumpy Strategists

In Episode 22, Marcus and Michael discuss the US election & the alliance post debate and failed assassination, before covering Ukraine military assistance and the alternative realities in Australia's contribution to Ukraine and our own defence. The episode ends with the strange case of the alleged Russian signaller spy and the failed $160m vetting project that might have helped catch them earlier.....

SAA's Marcus Hellyer talks with Rob Kremer, Kinexus' Director and Defence Sector lead about defence industry prospects and pressures. Rob puts the workforce demands by Defence into a wider economic and societal perspective to set out effective strategies for government and companies. Australian cities have quite different skills concentrations and demographics that flavour the necessary approaches.

The Grumpy Strategists discuss the consequences of budget settings on the Air Force, focusing on the secrecy and lack of accountability in the Defence bureaucracy. They highlight concerns about the Hunter Frigate program's potential obsolescence and the challenges in military system design and budgeting. The podcast also explores the lack of transparency in defense shipbuilding budget allocation, cost concerns, and the significant portion of the defense budget dedicated to maritime capabilities.

The Grumpy Strategists discuss the emerging cult of AUKUS, predict the US election winner using questionable analysis, and examine the slow progress in Australia's defense industry. They also delve into conspiracy theories, Chinese military actions, and AI advancements.

Discussions range from the challenges in extending the life of Collins Submarines to the controversial 'Safeguarding Australia's Military Secrets' law, requiring permits for foreign work. They touch on industrial harmony, asset disposal, military assistance to Ukraine, and the shift in defense mindset towards stockpiling equipment.

Michael Shoebridge talks with Paddy Gregg, CEO of Austal, about the company's history as a builder of commercial and military vessels for decades now. We discuss its stocked up order book both here & in the US, and the future, including Australia's general purpose frigates. Austal USA is making command modules for US Virginia Class submarines and is the biggest revenue earner for Austal, while at Henderson, Austal is ramping up fast with landing craft orders. Hanwha's bid is covered, with Paddy giving his perspective as the CEO of a publicly-listed company.

The podcast delves into the challenges of Australia's Defense Budget for 2024, revealing a delayed $5.7 billion, unachievable acquisition plans, and a worsening workforce crisis. AUKUS sub crewing plans hint at the early end of Collins subs and integration of Australian submariners in US subs by 2032.

Defense expert Marcus Hellyer and Michael Shoebridge analyze Australia's new National Defence Strategy, highlighting the lack of clarity and focus. They discuss the budget-driven investment program, concerns over missile defense cuts, and the need for a more comprehensive strategy with clear priorities for effective defense.

The Grumpy Strategists assess the state of public decision and policy making in Australia: the damaging path of 'profound' and "transformative' policies that aren't; the distracting symbolic political value of AUKUS, with numbers so large - $368 billion - they make other large decisions look trivial - and the now alarming gap between rhetoric and reality.

From a small sporting shooting goods supplier in 1973, NIOA Group has grown to be a major munitions and weapons supplier to Australia's military and law enforcement organisations. Robert Nioa talks with SAA's Michael Shoebridge about the last 28 years building an Australian prime with industrial heft. They discuss how Australia's strategic environment and new partnerships like AUKUS provide the direction to NIOA's business, along with its deepening commercial connections into the US and with capable Australian and international partners.