Claire Craig and Sarah Dillon discuss their new book. There is an urgent need to take stories seriously in order to improve public reasoning. The challenges of using scientific evidence, of distinguishing news from fake news, and of acting well in anticipation of highly uncertain futures, are more visible now than ever before. Across all these areas of public reasoning, stories create profound new knowledge and so deserve to be taken seriously. The two authors, Claire Craig, Provost of The Queen’s College, and Sarah Dillon, Professor of Literature and the Public Humanities at the University of Cambridge, talk to Charles Godfray, Director of the Oxford Martin School, about their theory and practice of listening to narratives where decisions are strongly influenced by contentious knowledge and powerful imaginings in areas such as climate change, artificial intelligence, the economy, and nuclear weapons and power.

The event launched a book by the Emerging Markets Forum (EMF), a Washington DC based not-for-profit think tank focused on emerging economies. The book takes a long-term perspective of emerging market economies through 2060. It highlights some of the fundamental and structural changes in the global economy accelerated by the pandemic as well as changes in geopolitics. It looks at the global megatrends, and the key issues such as climate change, rising inequality and inequities, fragility of international monetary system as well as rapid technological changes and their impact on the way we work that will heavily impact the future direction of most economies and societies. Finally, the volume highlights the fact that while many of the issues highlighted require joint actions at the global level, the current multilateral system is no longer geared to tackle them. It needs a major revamp as does the global economic governance. Harinder Kohli, Founding Director of EMF and primary editor of the book, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, former Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission and G-20 Sherpa of India, and Sir Suma Chakrabarti, Chairman of ODI and former President of EBRD discuss the book, chaired by Ian Goldin. This talk is organised by the Oxford Martin School and the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Development.

Dr Leroy Hood, CEO of Phenome Health, discusses his strategy for precision population health If one takes a systems approach to healthcare, it is obvious that it should be predictive, preventive, personalised and participatory (P4). This can be accomplished, in part, by a vision which includes following the health trajectory of each individual with a data-driven (genome/longitudinal phenome) approach to, after proper analyses, optimise wellness and avoid disease. This is the essence of what precision population health should be. To achieve this object, Dr Leroy Hood, CEO of Phenome Health, has proposed a “2nd human genome project”, termed Beyond the Human Genome, to analyse the genomes and longitudinal phenomes of one million individuals over 10 years with federal support. He has founded a non-profit company, Phenome Health, to develop the strategies and accumulate effective partners to carry out this initiative, which he will discuss in this talk. The first three Ps have to do with science and they lead to what Dr Hood calls the science of wellness and prevention. The fourth P, 'participatory', has to do with education, psychology and sociology and is by far the most difficult to achieve. How does one persuade patients, physicians, healthcare leaders, regulators, and industrial members of the current healthcare ecosystems to accept this paradigm change in how medicine is practiced? One clear need is a broad-scale education program to bring an understanding of just what P4 medicine is and how it can be achieved through the Beyond the Human Genome project. A second approach is to offer viable solutions to each of the five largest challenges of contemporary medicine - quality, ageing population, exploding chronic diseases, racial equity and excessive costs. The 10-year demonstration project of Beyond the Human Genome will provide striking new solutions to each of these challenges, as Dr Hood will discuss.

Stefan Dercon talks about his new book, with further discussion from David Pilling (Financial Times) and Melinda Bohannon (FCDO) In the last thirty years, the developing world has undergone tremendous changes. Overall, poverty has fallen, people live longer and healthier lives, and economies have been transformed. And yet many countries have simply missed the boat. Oxford’s Stefan Dercon’s new book, “Gambling on Development: Why some countries win and others lose”, asks why it is that some of the previously poorest countries have prospered, while others have failed. Stefan argues that the answer lies not in a specific set of policies, but rather in a key ‘development bargain’, whereby a country’s elites shift from protecting their own positions to gambling on a growth-based future. Despite the imperfections of such bargains, China is among the most striking recent success stories, along with Indonesia and more unlikely places, such as Bangladesh, Ghana and, tentatively, Ethiopia. Gambling on Development is about these winning efforts, in contrast to countries stuck in elite bargains leading nowhere. At the talk, he is joined by David Pilling (Financial Times), Melinda Bohannon, (Director of Strategy at FCDO) and Ricardo Soares de Oliveira (Oxford University). The event will debate some of the themes of the book: how economics and politics are deeply connected, how naïve policy prescriptions distract, how international policies and aid can help or distort, but also the remarkable role played in some countries by leading groups and individuals to drive progress, and the failures of local elites elsewhere.

Dr Tara Garnett (director of TABLE and fellow of the Oxford Martin School) in conversation with Dr Helena Wright, Dr Pablo Manzano and Dan Blaustein-Rejto, discuss livestock systems and greenhouse gas emissions. The food system generates around a third of human-made greenhouse gas emissions, with about half of these attributable to animal production; and yet food was markedly absent from official discussions at COP26. This, for many analysts, represented not only a major climate-relevant omission but also a missed opportunity for reshaping the food system in ways that could achieve broader set of social, environmental and economic benefits. That said, some of the major commitments agreed at the 2021 COP – notably around deforestation and methane – will, if implemented, require action from the livestock sector, and many activists are hoping that COP27 will see a far greater focus on livestock-related concerns than has been the case so far. But what exactly is the livestock problem that needs to be addressed? For some, the ongoing trend towards large-scale, capital-intensive, high density livestock production is the major issue. For others, this trend towards intensification is to be welcomed, since, it is argued, they are far more environmentally efficient than the traditional, extensive and low yielding systems they replace. And then there is the question of appetite. Is our growing demand for meat a given, and the challenge a matter of meeting this demand at least environmental cost; or are robust policies needed to incentivise a shift towards more plant-based, lower impact diets? Is everyone actually missing the point, using overly simplistic metrics to assess the environmental goods and bads of livestock production, and in so doing failing to recognise the numerous ecological, social, economic and cultural benefits of certain livestock systems and the importance of foregrounding equity and food sovereignty in discussions about livestock? Dr Tara Garnett (director of TABLE and fellow of the Oxford Martin School) in conversation with Dr Helena Wright, Policy Director at the FAIRR Initiative, Dr Pablo Manzano, Ikerbasque Research Fellow at the Basque Centre for Climate Change, and Dan Blaustein-Rejto, Director of Food and Agriculture at the Breakthrough Institute. This is a joint event with TABLE and the Oxford Martin School

Sir Dieter Helm discusses how we could shift to a sustainable economy. What would have to happen for this generation to live within its environmental means and to bequeath to the next generation a set of assets at least as good as it inherited? What would the sustainable economy look like? How do we stop climate change and biodiversity loss? Consumption would have to be on a sustainable growth path, having first ensured the proper capital maintenance of the infrastructures and the natural capitals. Polluters would have to pay, with prices reflecting the full costs of the pollution causes to make the stuff for us the ultimate polluters. Economic growth, driven by technological progress and ideas would continue, once the economy was put back to the sustainable level of consumption. This would be very different from what happens now. The focus would not be on Keynesian boosts to aggregate demand, borrowing for current consumption, and quantitative easing. Living within our - and hence the environment's means - would mean radical shifts in our life styles, changes to national accounting and to the frameworks of economic policy. Getting to the sustainable economy would be politically very difficult, but not doing so risks lots for climate change and further considerable destruction of biodiversity. Continuing on our current path is unsustainable: hence it will not be sustained.

Alison Wolf, Ian Stuart and Sir Chris Husbands join Sir Paul Collier to discuss vocational skills and the economy. This country has been worrying about vocational skills since the late 19th century. Since then we have had one government initiative after another, yet employers' complaints about skill shortages have steadily increased. At the same time, the country has continued to grow economically: so sceptics might wonder if there is really a crisis at all. This conversation brings three expert academic and practitioner perspectives on this vital issue. Alison Wolf (Baroness Wolf of Dulwich) is Sir Roy Griffiths Professor of Public Sector Management at King's College London and a nationally recognized academic authority on skills and education. Sir Chris Husbands, is Vice-Chancellor of Sheffield Hallam University, where he has pioneered vocational training, now recognized nationally in its top-rated reputation with students. Ian Stuart is the Chief Executive of HSBC, which has just pioneered bank relocation out of London, moving its HQ to Birmingham. There, it will become a major employer of skilled jobs; and as one of Britain’s top banks for SMEs in the Midlands and North, has practical experience of whether the skills needed for entrepreneurship and in place.

This discussion brings together the editors of a special issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy on Capitalism. Rising levels of inequality, social exclusion, environmental degradation and political divisiveness are a of source growing disillusionment with our capitalist system. The OxREP issue includes articles by leading economists from around the world on the problems with the existing system and the changes that need to be made to address them. At the heart of the arguments presented is the notion of cohesive communities and societies, and their role alongside globalisation, privatisation and financialisation in restoring trust in capitalism.

Join Professor Kingsley Moghalu, Oxford Martin Visiting Fellow on the Oxford Martin Programme on African Governance and former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, as he discusses the challenges and opportunities of Nigeria's political economy Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and the continent’s largest economy, is populated by dynamic and talented citizens, but has faced steep challenges in development, leadership and governance. Poverty is widespread. The country is currently embattled by terrorism, general insecurity, a depressed economy, and by challenges from separatist agitations to the existential legitimacy of the Nigerian state. How can Nigeria achieve transformation economically and politically? Taking a political economy approach into the Nigerian conundrum, this public lecture by Professor Kingsley Moghalu, Visiting Fellow at the University of Oxford’s Oxford Martin School, examines how the West African country’s foundation as a British colony, and contemporary challenges of nationhood and political order formation, the resource curse of oil, corruption, and the absence of a strong leadership culture have created incentives for Nigeria’s current dysfunction. He identifies not just seven critical challenges, but also offers seven paths to reform and a longer term resolution of the country’s political and economic challenges. The result, if his prescriptions happen, could be the long-delayed emergence of Africa’s first truly indigenous global power.

Join Ron Emerson, Chairman of Bank North, & Professor Colin Mayer, Lead Researcher on the Oxford Martin Initiative on Regional Levelling-up, as they discuss the above and in what ways does Bank North’s business model address these needs? The UK has the most extreme regional inequalities in the OECD and one of the most centralised governance and financial systems all controlled from London. How can the finance and banking world help level the playing field and shift all focus and control away from London? When it comes to finance and banking - why are they so important to levelling up? What has gone wrong with local access to finance? And what is needed to resolve this problem?