The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

David Wilder talks to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing about the latest on the central bank war on inflation. They discuss what signs of persistently high core numbers mean for expectations for how far and fast interest rates need to rise and the role that weaker activity and cooling housing markets will play in easing price pressures. Plus, our Europe team has slashed its forecasts for euro-zone growth next year. Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham explains what's dragging on the economy and whether the ECB will change tack accordingly.  

The Communist Party 20th Congress will accelerate a huge personnel reshuffle throughout the party and the state apparatus, affecting key policymakers including central bank governor Yi Gang, Guo Shuqing, the chief bank regulator, and Liu He, a Vice Premier known as Xi Jinping's "economic czar". David Wilder talks to Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard about who might replace these influential reformist voices within the government, but also what it will mean to be a reformist under Xi's more centralised and authoritarian decision-making process. Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses whether Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's defenestration marks an end to the UK's crisis.      

Globalisation isn't dead, but it is undergoing a fundamental shift which will reshape the global economy and markets in the years ahead. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses The Fracturing of the Global Economy, our major new research project, which makes the case for the resurgence of geopolitics as a major driver of economic and market outcomes for the first time in a generation. He talks about how the global economy is coalescing US and Chinese economic blocs and explains what this will mean for flows of everything from finance to technology to people. 

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing flew from London to Singapore intending to talk global macro with clients there. Instead, his discussions were dominated by the chaos of the UK's political economy. He calls in (on an occasionally spotty line) from Changi Airport to explain the teachings that an extraordinary week for the UK have for other governments and central banks as interest rates move up from historic lows. Also this episode, Jennifer McKeown, who heads our Global Economics service, discusses our new global forecasts and we have an exclusive extract of our Markets team briefing clients on FX intervention in Asia.