Barclays Brief

Zornitsa Todorova, Head of Thematic FICC Research and robotics expert, dives into the future of humanoid robots. She explores how the market, presently worth $2-3 billion, could skyrocket to ~$200 billion by 2045. Zornitsa breaks down the importance of 'brains, brawn, and batteries' in robotics, emphasizing that mechanics significantly impact costs. She also discusses demographic shifts driving demand, particularly in sectors like healthcare and agriculture, making humanoids a viable solution for labor shortages.

Kristen Macleod, Global Head of Macro Distribution at Barclays, brings her expertise on market dynamics. They explore the key investor focuses for 2026, highlighting trends like curve steepeners and commodity strategies. Kristen outlines bullish trades linked to AI and discusses defensive hedges against potential disappointments. The conversation also touches on geopolitical risks, tariff tensions, and policy moves to sustain growth. With a keen emphasis on macro themes, Kristen provides insights into navigating a rapidly changing financial landscape.

While traditional macroeconomic factors such as labour markets, central bank policy and inflation are all important considerations for 2026, the economy is “going to live or die” by what happens with AI, according to Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha.​​In the first Barclays Brief episode of 2026, Global Head of the Product Management Group Patrick Coffey welcomes Ajay back to discuss why AI is the dominant force shaping the global economy, and what risks and opportunities investors should watch out for as the story unfolds. ​​Listen in to get the big picture on what’s shaping markets this year.​​Listeners can hear more on this topic:​Barclays Brief #10 – Seismic Shifts: Agentic AI in Energy ​Barclays Brief # 11 – Credit markets: What’s ahead for 2026​Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​Macro Outlook: No turning back​​This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.Important Content Disclosures​Important non-Research Content Disclosures​​

Ross Sandler, a Senior Research Analyst in the US Internet sector, dives into the exciting future of robotaxis. He shares his transformative experience riding in a Waymo without a driver. The discussion highlights the anticipated 2026 rollout of autonomous vehicles and the varying regulatory landscapes across states. Ross contrasts Waymo's LiDAR tech with Tesla's camera approach and delves into the challenges of scaling fleets through remote operator ratios. He also explores the potential disruption robotaxis pose to traditional ride-hailing services.

If you spent 2025 watching credit and thinking “this feels suspiciously quiet,” you are not alone. Barclays’ Global Head of Research, Brad Rogoff, and Global Head of Equities Distribution, Ronnie Wexler, walk through the late‑cycle credit playbook for 2026: why spreads might finally move, how trillion‑dollar ambitions for AI are colliding with debt markets, and why private credit’s rapid growth brings new complexity and risk.​They also examine structural credit market shifts, such as portfolio trading and liquidity dynamics, and what they could mean for stability as financing needs expand across public and private markets. Dive into the full conversation to explore where credit markets may go next.​Listeners can hear more on this topic:​Barclays Brief Ep. 5: Private credit: Hidden interconnectivity​Barclays Brief Ep. 6: Hyperscalers: Hypergrowth, higher risk ​Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​Not just sunshine and rainbows: https://live.barcap.com/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FP692f6577b7837d79e2140dee&restriction=DEBT​Important Content Disclosures​Important non-Research Content Disclosures

Conversations about AI often revolve around the outlooks for the Mag7, capex or the resources required to power the technology. This episode of the Barclays Brief explores agentic AI’s potential for tangible results if applied to the energy industry. Lydia Rainforth, Head of European Energy Equity Research, joins Patrick Coffey to explain how agentic AI, defined as systems that plan, decide and act without human intervention, could unlock $80bn in productivity gains by 2030. ​The bulk of productivity gains could be realised in upstream – the exploration and extraction of raw oil and natural gas. Lydia breaks down practical use cases from faster seismic interpretation and higher hit rates in exploration to more precise, increasingly autonomous drilling. They also look at the hardware offering innovation in predictive maintenance using drones and robots that could cut downtime and increase output. ​Listen now to hear the insights and the introduction of Barclays’ AI Readiness framework (BAIR), which allows clients of Barclays Investment Bank to see companies graded by their level of implementation of AI, helping identify potential winners and laggards.Listeners can hear more on this topic:​Barclays Brief Ep 6 - Hyperscalers: Hypergrowth, higher riskBarclays Brief Ep 7 - US dollar & the AI capex cycleBarclays Brief Ep 8 - Critical minerals: the new oilClients can read more on Barclays Live:​New Horizons – Agentic AI, the $80bn game-changer for energyImportant Content Disclosures​Important non-Research Content Disclosures

The rise of real-time trading platforms, combined with steady 401(k) inflows, has amplified wealth effects – making retail investors acutely aware that fluctuations in equity markets directly influence their perceived financial well-being, with over 30% of household net worth tied directly to equities*. As Alex Altmann puts it, “the stock market now is the economy”, as market moves have the potential to ripple straight into household spending and sentiment, reshaping the old narrative.In this week’s episode of the Barclays Brief, Patrick Coffey speaks to Alex to reveal the signals institutional investors should be looking for in 2026, from retail trading cycle when tax returns come due to how commodities aren’t fully appreciated by markets. With US-China talks on the horizon, commodity price surges could not only disrupt supply chains, but impact household budgets.Tune in for actionable perspectives and the themes investors can’t afford to overlook for 2026. *Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Listeners can hear more on this topic:Barclays Brief ep8: Critical minerals: the new oilBarclays Brief ep2: Gold: Unpacking the rallyClients can read more on Barclays Live:AI and a larger-than-expected commodities cycleThe magnetic pull of rare earthsMined Matters – From Crypto to Commodities: More Fuel for the Gold RallyImportant Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

As technological advancement continues at pace across AI, defence and everything in between, demand for critical minerals such as rare earth elements (REEs) and copper, lithium, aluminium, nickel and cobalt (collectively known as CLANCs) has skyrocketed.  Yet their supply is incredibly concentrated, making access a high stakes priority for many economies. China has invested heavily over recent decades in everything from mineral processing plants to STEM graduates and has become the dominant supplier of critical minerals.With spot prices recently trebling amidst trade tensions and defence spending increases, countries in the West are balancing the need for immediate access to existing supplies with a strategic, longer-term pivot to build out mine-to-magnet processing.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, Ronnie Wexler is joined by Zornitsa Todorova, Head of Thematic FICC Research, to discuss why critical minerals are set to become a defining market theme for 2026. They break down why critical minerals are the ‘new oil’, what's driving current market volatility and what the future of supply could look like.Listeners can hear more on this topic:Talent and trade: the new battlegrounds in AIQ1 2026 Global Outlook: As goes AI...Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Critical Minerals: the magnetic pull of rare earths2025 Equity Gilt Study - Minerals and mindsQ1 2026 Global Outlook: As goes AI...Important Research Content DisclosuresImportant Non-Research Content Disclosures

Themos Fiotakis, Global Head of FX and EM Macro Strategy at Barclays, dives into the fascinating intersection of AI-driven capital expenditures and currency markets. He discusses how the immense pledges for AI investments are not currently reflected in FX market reactions, exploring historical investment cycles and the implications for the dollar. Themos also examines the risks surrounding CapEx financing, the ongoing narrative of de-dollarization, and highlights the potential benefits for metals exporters amid rising AI demand. Buckle up for insights on the future of the dollar!

In this insightful discussion, Andrew Keches, Co-Head of U.S. High Grade Credit Research, shares his expertise on the rapidly evolving funding landscape for big tech. He explains how hyperscalers are shifting from cash-funded expansions to debt financing, revealing the implications for credit markets. The conversation touches on the overwhelming recent debt issuance, risks associated with private funding, and the differing outlooks between credit and equity investors regarding AI's future in capital-heavy sectors. A must-listen for anyone interested in tech finance!