War on the Rocks

As listeners of this podcast know, the Marine Corps is taking a new direction. The latest document to lay out this vision is Force Design 2030. The commandant, Gen. David H. Berger, aims to cut the size of the Marine Corps and let go of some legacy systems (most notably tanks) in order to -- in the words of a recent article in the Economist --- turn the Corps into "a commando-like infantry force with nimbler weapons: drone squadrons will double in number and rocket batteries will triple." In Berger's view, the Marine Corps must make these changes in order to work with the other armed services to deter the People's Republic of China, if necessary, or win a war against it.   Ryan spoke with Berger to get the inside story of these reforms, which he describes as being in their earliest phase. "This is not the end of the journey" he said, "but rather the beginning." And he calls upon more voices to chime in with criticism to ensure the Marine Corps is ready for the future of war.    Further reading and listening: Force Design 2030 David H. Berger, "Notes on Designing the Marine Corps of the Future," War on the Rocks "Send the Marines" The Economist David Barno and Nora Bensahel, "A Striking New Vision for the Marines, and a Wakeup Call for the Other Services," War on the Rocks Chris Brose and Ryan Evans, "Your Ideas Matter: The Making of Marine Strategic Planning and the Future of War," War on the Rocks podcast Chris Brose, Rep. Mike Gallagher, and Ryan Evans, "The Fleet, the Fight, and the Future," War on the Rocks podcast Edward D. Hess and Katherine Ludwig, Humility Is the New Smart: Rethinking Human Excellence in the Smart Machine Age(Berrett-Koehler Publishers) Ryan Holiday, Ego is the Enemy(Portfolio)

As the world endures a pandemic, we look to a plague of the past: that which struck Athens early in the Peloponnesian War. And we do so with the aid of Neville Morley, professor of classics and ancient history at the University of Exeter. Where did the plague come from? How did it affect the war? How did it change Athenian society? We explore these questions and more in a fascinating extended conversation. Neville is the perfect guide for these matters, having written many books and articles on different aspects of ancient history and its modern influence, including Roman imperialism, ancient trade, and the ancient Greek historian Thucydides.    Further reading:  Neville Morley, A User's Guide to Thucydides, Parts One and Two Thucydides (trans. Jeremy Mynott), The War of the Peloponnesians and the Athenians Thucydides (trans. Martin Hammond), The Peloponnesian War

America has been at war since the fall of 2001. There is no end in sight in Afghanistan, Mesopotamia and the Levant, and beyond. What political and strategic disincentives have stalled Washington's ability to responsibly end its involvement in these wars under Republican and Democratic administrations? After spraying down our studio with grain alcohol to kill the virus afflicting the world (Everclear is the unofficial sponsor of this episode, as is an excellent northern Italian vineyard called Paltrinieri), we convened a great group to grapple with the forever wars: Paul Miller of Georgetown, Sarah Kreps of Cornell, and Will Ruger of the Charles Koch Institute and Foundation.    Further reading: Paul Miller, Withdrawal Deadlines in War (Atlantic Council, 2020) Sarah Kreps, Taxing Wars: The American Way of War Finance and the Decline of Democracy (Oxford University Press, 2018) Will Ruger, "With U.S. Strategy on the Rocks, We Are Supporting Fresh Perspectives Fresh Perspectives in Foreign Policy," War on the Rocks Paul Miller, "How Does Jihadism End? Choosing Between Forever War and Nation Building," War on the Rocks John Kaag and Sarah Kreps, Drone Warfare (Polity, 2014) Sarah Kreps, Coalitions of Convenience: United States Military Interventions after the Cold War (Oxford University Press, 2011)

Devour this deep dive into the dash to drop America's drawn-out duel in the domain of the Durrani (and different dynasties): Afghanistan. To help us understand what's transpired and the meaning of the new deal between the United States and the Taliban, Ryan was joined by Orzala Nemat, Laurel Miller, and Vikram J. Singh -- all of whom have many years of experience with America's longest war.   For members, we have some bonus material (posted in the War Hall): Dr. Nemat tells us what a certain Hamid Karzai has been up to. Want to become a member? Click: https://warontherocks.com/membership/   Further reading and listening:   Barnett Rubin, "Fighting and Talking with the Taliban During the Obama Years," War on the Rocks Laurel Miller, "The Trump Administration’s Afghanistan Policy," Testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs Vikram Signh, "Behind The U.S.-Taliban Ceasefire Agreement In Afghanistan," NPR, interview by Ari Shapiro Chris Brose, Melanie Marlow, Christopher Preble, "Why is America Leaving Afghanistan Now?" Net Assessment John Bew, Ryan Evans, Peter Neumann, and Marisa Porgest, Talking to the Taliban: Hope over History (ICSR: 2013)

In front of a live audience and with red wine in hand, the War on the Rocks podcast closed out an important conference on civil-military affairs hosted by the Strategic Studies shop over at the School of Advanced International Studies. The guests of this awesome episode include Mara Karlin, Paula Thornhill, Loren DoJonge Shulman, and Nora Bensahel. Further Reading and Watching: Watch the conference Paula Thornhill, Demystifying the American Military: Institutions Evolution and Challenges Since 1789 (Naval Institute Press, 2019) David Barno and Nora Bensahel, Adaptation under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime (Oxford University Press, 2020)

Is the U.S. military built and positioned to stop or — if necessary — win the next big war? What should the Navy and Marine Corps of the future look like? What's standing in the way? How can the United States step back from the Middle East and focus on the Pacific? What does The Wire have to teach us about Washington? Why does a member of Congress have a sword, a pull-up bar, and a bottle of Lagavulin 16 in his office? Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin and Chris Brose of Anduril Industries join Ryan for a wide-ranging conversation that tackles these questions and more.    Further Reading, Listening, and Watching: Mike Gallagher, "To Deter China, the Naval Services Must Integrate," War on the Rocks Frank Hoffman, "No Strategic Success Without 21st Century Seapower: Forward Partnering," War on the Rocks Alice Hunt Friend, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble, "Net Assessment: Debating the AUMFs" "Everybody Stays Friends," The Wire Chris Brose and Ryan Evans, "Your Ideas Matter," War on the Rocks

The Trump administration made big news recently — and it wasn’t about impeachment. On Jan. 31, the White House announced that it was cancelling the policy that prohibited using anti-personnel landmines outside the Korean peninsula. The subject has been a fraught issue since the early 1990s, when civil society began to respond to the tragic consequences — particularly in the developing world — of the proliferation of landmines. The Clinton administration was a motivating force behind the Ottawa Convention, which banned the use of anti-personnel landmines worldwide, although it didn’t sign the treaty. The Bush administration argued that developing and deploying “smart mines,” that self-destruct after a period time, was consistent with U.S. national interests and humanitarian concerns. Under President Barack Obama, however, the United States committed to implement all of the elements of the Ottawa Convention except on the Korean peninsula, which poses a unique challenge to American defense planners. To discuss the issue, Ryan Evans was joined by David E. Johnson of the RAND Corporation, Stephen Pomper of the International Crisis Group and formerly of the Obama administration, Luke O’Brien of War on the Rocks, and Mary Wareham of Human Rights Watch.

Many of you have heard of the Doomsday Clock — a decades-old analogue clock meant to symbolize how close we are to nuclear catastrophe. However far we are from midnight, we are told, is how close we are to disaster. More recently, it is also meant to incorporate the risks of catastrophic climate change. It was started by many of the scientists responsible for the creation of the nuclear weapon. And it is, and has always been, run by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The Bulletin just set the clock to 100 seconds to midnight — the closest it’s ever been. On Twitter, Ryan remarked that he didn’t think this exercise added much in the way of value. And so, a debate began. Ryan assembled a group to debate the Doomsday Clock (over Manhattans, appropriately). On one side, Miles Pomper of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and Benjamin H. Friedman of Defense Priorities. On the other, Jon Wolfsthal and Sharon Squassoni, both of whom sit on the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board. And Ryan served as an admittedly biased moderator.

Islands have taken on a greater prominence when we talk about the risk of war, especially in Asia. In the Indo-Pacific, islands, reefs, and rocky outcroppings are increasingly an organizing principle for considering security issues. In this episode, Doyle Hodges hosts a conversation on the sidelines of the Bridging the Straits II conference held in Tokyo. Professor Michishita Narushige of the Japanese National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Professor Terry Roehrig of the US Naval War College, Darshana Baruah, a pre-doctoral researcher at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, and Dr. Euan Graham, Executive Director of La Trobe Asia, discuss how the unique nature of islands influences Asia-Pacific security, ranging from the security concerns of small island nations in the Indian Ocean to China’s construction and militarization of artificial features in the South China Sea, to territorial disputes between Japan, South Korea, Russia, and China over the possession of small--often uninhabitable or marginally economically viable--islands.

As the world changes, is the nuclear strategy landscape changing or staying remarkably consistent? We had a nice chat about such in lovely Hamburg, courtesy of the Nuclear Studies Research Initiative (NSRI). Don't miss this episode, featuring Fiona Cunningham of George Washington University, Francis Gavin of Johns Hopkins, Ulrich Kühn of the University of Hamburg, and Jane Vaynman of Temple University.