Property Investment, Success & Money | The Michael Yardney Podcast

Since Australia's economy and our property markets don't operate in isolation, I regularly have a look at the big picture, the macroeconomic factors affecting not just Australia's economy, but the world economy to help us understand what's ahead for us, and I do this in these Big Picture Podcasts with Pete Wargent. While regular listeners know Pete well, if you're new to this podcast, firstly welcome, because I see there are thousands of new listeners every month, but the reason I'm keen to discuss these matters with Pete is not because of his academic credentials as a Chartered Accountant, Chartered Secretary or because he has a Financial Planning Diploma. But I enjoy these chats because of the credible perspective Pete brings on what's happening around the world. Since our chat last month Australia's circumstances have rapidly evolved, and we've got a lot to discuss. Listen in as we discuss the big picture and then I'll share my mindset message. The Big Picture With Covid related restrictions being lifted, life is getting back to a more Covid normal, and the pent-up demand from the last couple of months should ensure our property markets continue to perform strongly moving forward. Recently Westpac upgraded its forecast for Australian dwelling prices again. They are now expecting property prices to rise 22% for the full calendar year 2021 (up from its previous forecast of 18%) and they have also lifted their outlook for next year from 5% to 8%. But how is APRA's intervention going to interfere with this? And how are all the world economic challenges including the financial problems of China's big property developer Evergrande going to affect us here in Australia There's lots to discuss this month so I'm looking forward to my regular Big Picture podcast with economic analyst Pete Wargent, a lifelong student of and commentator on our economy – hello Pete. Topics Pete and I Discuss Today: What to look forward to on the other side of lockdowns As Sydney and Melbourne open up, they should see strong boosts to their economies The IMF says that the global economic recovery is continuing, even as the pandemic resurges. Vaccine access and early policy support are the principal drivers of the gaps. The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022 Chinese property developer Evergrande is in financial trouble The fallout from that looks like the Chinese government is attacking its mega-corporations and has in the process thrown all international bond debt holders under the bus. Household savings are expected to hit at least $200 billion this year, which boosts the economy The economy is also boosted by a lot of construction projects 281,000 Australians lost their jobs because of Delta, but people are starting to gear up for the reopening of their industries The combined value of all residential real estate in Australia is now over $9 trillion, up from $8 trillion in April Regulators are aiming to gently apply the brakes to the housing market, rather than slam them on. To invest in property, it's smart to continue to look for areas that have always performed, rather than the new hotspot. Resources: Metropole's Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors Gets your bundle of eBooks and reports here: PodcastBonus.com.au Join Michael's Property Update private Facebook group by clicking here Pete Wargent's new Podcast Shownotes plus more here: The Big Picture – economic & property trends you must understand – November 2021 with Pete Wargent Some of our favourite quotes from the show: "While people think China is a communist country, it really isn't when you travel there and see how many private enterprises there are." – Michael Yardney "Unlike previous booms, this one is being driven mainly by owner-occupiers, not investors." – Michael Yardney "Wasn't that long ago, everyone was predicting unemployment in double-digit figures, and property values dropping 10, 15, 20 percent." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

What would Warren Buffett say about how I approach my property investing? And why do I even care? Well… Buffett who is 90 years old is consistently ranked amongst the world's richest people, is arguably the most successful investor of the 20th century and has an estimated net worth of $107 Billion. This means, he's earned (on average) over $11 million each and every year of his life, which is thousands of times more than the average worker in Australia earns. Anyway… I think he'd be impressed with how I invest because there are some similarities in our investment philosophies. So in today's show, I'd like to look at some of Buffett's investment principles and see how we can apply them to our property investing. How does Warren Buffet Invest? Warren Buffett is arguably the greatest investor of all time. So today's I'd like to look at some of his investment principles and see how we can apply them to our property investing. Adhere to a proven strategy In my mind, you need to follow a strategy that has always worked, rather than one that works now. Invest counter-cyclically Buffett has advised: "We attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful." This is also the investment strategy of many successful property investors and has proven to be a winning formula for many who invested in property. Sometimes it's best to do nothing A great quote from Warren Buffett is… "The trick is, when there is nothing to do - do nothing." There are stages in the property cycle and times in your investment journey when it is best to sit back and wait for the right opportunities. Specialize - don't diversify Successful investors specialize. They become an expert in one area or niche and reproduce the same thing over and over again getting great results. Invest for value You make your money when you buy your property, but not by buying a bargain. Instead, you lock in your profits by buying the right property. Invest for the long term Those who have created wealth out of property took a long-term view. This doesn't mean buy and forget - you should regularly review your property portfolio. Don't invest in anything you don't understand Warren Buffett never invests in anything he doesn't understand – nor should you. Manage your risks Smart investors have financial buffers in their offset accounts or lines of credit to not only cover their negative gearing shortfall but to see them through the downtimes of the property cycle. What would Warren Buffett say about how I approach property investing? I think he'd be impressed with how I invest because there are some similarities in our investment philosophies. Clearly, I'm not in Warren Buffett's league as an investor and Buffett much prefers investing in companies than buying real estate. And of course, he really wouldn't bother himself with how I do things, so all this is hypothetical. Having said that, I've grown a very substantial property portfolio over the last almost 50 years of investing that has given me financial freedom and choices in life. Resources: Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Get a range of my ebooks here: www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: Why not invest like Warren Buffett? Some of our favourite quotes from the show: "You can't just go buy any property and hope it's an investment-grade property." – Michael Yardney "It's much harder to diversify when properties are so expensive." – Michael Yardney "Abundance of supply is the enemy of capital growth." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

If you want to become a more successful negotiator not only in property but in many areas of your life, you'll enjoy today's podcast which is the second part of a two-part series on how to win at auctions. Today I'm going to discuss the psychological tricks agents and auctioneers use to get the last dollar out of your pocket, in the hope that if you understand these techniques, you'll be a better negotiator not only at auctions but in all real estate transactions. After you've attended several auctions, you'll realize that a lot of the theatre and pressure is intentionally manufactured to get results. A good auctioneer can create an atmosphere of excitement and nervous competition as well as using some sneaky techniques I'm about to uncover for you that encourage businesses to pay a little bit more than they might have initially intended. To be successful, you must be aware of the little tricks that agents will use on you, and even if you're not planning to buy a property at auction you'll find that most real estate agents, who are trained negotiators, will use many of the psychological principles I'm going to share with you in all property negotiations. And as I show you how to spot these practices and how you can handle them, you'll find the lessons you learn will be helpful in negotiations in all areas of your life. In fact, my discussion with you today comes out of a chapter of my top-selling book Negotiate Influence Persuade. Auction psychology tricks: Social proof – This shows potential buyers that many other people are also interested in the property. We feel validated when we can see that others want the same things that we want. Scarcity – We value things that are (or seem to be) scarce. Auctioneers will use tactics to emphasize or manufacture scarcity and create FOMO. Reciprocity – This is just giving your customers something before you ask for anything from them. We tend to want to return good deeds. Therefore, auctioneers might give away things like free coffee or treats, hoping your urger to reciprocate later will result in a sale. Anchoring – We tend to rely too heavily on an initial piece of information. We selectively filter by the first impression. So, the first number dropped can be hard to shake and you may anchor your judgment on it. Loss aversion – The pain of losing something is psychologically more powerful than the pleasure of gaining something. Auctioneers will play on this fear of losing out. Recency bias – you're more likely to remember something that happened recently than something that happened a while Auctioneers will remind you of recent growth but not mention stagnation or loss a few years ago Auction sins to avoid: Not bidding: The way to be the winner at the end is to actually bid. Deciding on a round number: You could miss out because you're not prepared to bid an extra $500-1000. Stopping and starting bidding: Stopping to confer makes it seem like you might not have enough in your pocket to close the deal. It doesn't project confidence. Asking if the property is on the market: You're going to know when the property is on the market. You'll see signs or they'll actually tell you. But it shouldn't matter – the seller came to sell the property. All you're doing is negotiating on price. Making ridiculous offers: Starting too low may in some cases allow bidders in who might otherwise stay out and can build momentum, which you want to avoid. Pretending you're not interested: Agents want to help genuine buyers purchase, so be a stand up buyer. Resources: Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Get a range of my ebooks here: www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: Understand the psychology agents use on you + 6 Auction Sins to avoid Some of our favorited quotes from the show: "Again, I'm suggesting you should be aware of these techniques, so they don't catch you off guard so that you bid at auction with your head and not your heart." – Michael Yardney "Of course, in a rising market as we're experiencing in most parts of Australia, a property price achieved two or three months ago is going to be irrelevant." – Michael Yardney "Start with a strong confident bid that could knock out several other contenders early on." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

Around Australia, weekend property auctions have become almost a national pastime. When we're not lockdown people go along to have a sticky beak, to get an idea of the market, to fantasize about their dream homes or just to watch the street theatre unfolding before them. It's a bit like watching buskers – you see an auction being conducted you just have to stop and gawk for a while. Of course, over the last year, we have had to learn to adapt in many auctions are conducted online, but auctions are still a particularly popular method of selling properties, especially when the market is strong. For all the street theatre and entertainment value, auctions represent a lot of stress and tension for those involved so today and in the next episode of the Michael Yardney podcast, we're going to concentrate on how to win at auctions. And even if you're not planning to buy a property at auction in the near future, there will be lots of information for you as I chat with my son Bryce Yardney, and you get inside the mind of a very successful investor and buyer's agent who has bought hundreds and hundreds of properties at auction for our clients at Metropole. What to do before and during an auction: Before the auction: Preliminaries include: getting finance preapproved, understanding what ownership entity you're using to purchase, having a strategic property plan if it's an investment, understanding what you must have, what you'd like to have, and what you don't have if you're buying a home and doing due diligence on your suburb. Attend a lot of auctions to feel at home with them and watch how the auctioneers work. In particular watch the auctioneer who will be showing the property you're interested in. Determining the value of the property Understand what's comparable in today's market. End up with 3 figures: what you think the property is worth The price you'd like to get it for The stretched price you're prepared to go to The purchase price shouldn't be determined by borrowing capacity. How do you find out the reserve? It doesn't really matter. Often the auctioneer doesn't know until the day of the auction. Finalizing contract terms Check with the agent to find out how should you pay the deposit Request any changes you'd like Four things the selling agent knows that you don't The real reason the vendor is selling The price range the owner wants How many other buyers are really interested and possibly the range they are likely to pay Things that are wrong with the property Can you buy a property before the auction? In today's market, because vendors are more confident that they will sell at auction, however, there are a number of reasons why vendors may be prepared to sell before auction. Nervous vendor Sensitive sellers – Sellers going through emotional challenges like death, divorce, illness. Time-sensitive vendors – they have already bought a house and the certainty of selling their old property outweighs the potential benefit of a higher price at auction. There isn't much interest in the property The agent is in a hurry to sell You have a premium offer on the table What to do on Auction Day Show up early Note the body language of the other players Know your competition – it's the underbidder, not the auctioneer Project confidence Open high Don't procrastinate over the next bid Avoid not bidding – that's not a strategy Know what bidding strategies don't work, like moving up in small increments or trying to swoop in at the end of the auction after staying silent If it's going to pass in, make sure you are the highest bidder, as this allows the first right to negotiate with the vendor. Be prepared to miss out. Stick to your 'walk-away price. Resources: Michael Yardney Bryce Yardney – director Metropole Projects Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Collect your bundle of eBooks and reports here: www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: Hands up if you want to know more about auctions, with Bryce Yardney Some of our favourite quotes from the show: "Auctions do bring out emotion and, at the moment it's FOMO." – Michael Yardney "Most adults start with the same amount of money. They just have a different philosophy." – Michael Yardney "Poor people spend their money and save what's left, while rich people save their money and spend what's left." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

The pace of change has never been this fast, yet it will never be this slow again. They were the words of Justin Trudeau at the World Economic Forum even before the significant changes we have been experiencing in the last couple of years due to Covid. Moving forward a raft of demographic changes are going to fall into place to make Australia look very, very different in 10 years' time – in 2031. And this was the basis of a major research paper – Australia towards 2031 - by leading demographer Mark McCrindle, who is my guest on today's show to discuss the demographic, consumer, and behavioural trends that will be shaping our nation over the next decade. It will be critical to understand these changes as a property investor because demographics will drive our destiny; but today's show will also be useful if you're in business or planning your future career or life. Wouldn't it be nice to know what the world will be like in 2031? Looking Forward to 2031 Only occasionally in history do massive demographic changes combine with huge social shifts, ongoing generational transitions, and unprecedented technological innovation so that within the span of a decade society altogether alters. Australia is currently in the mist of one such transformation. These are not my words, but the words of my guest today leading demographer and futurist Mark McCrindle who has recently published a new report Australia Towards 2031 to help us understand the demographic, consumer and behavioural trends shaping our nation. Some of the major trends from Mark's report: We'll be larger than we are now, but: Australia's population will be slightly smaller, and less culturally diverse than it otherwise would have been. The next decade with higher healthcare, aged care, pension and economic stimulus will see higher costs, low revenues and more government deficits and debts then pre-Covid forecasts The demographic impact of Covid has largely been a slowdown in population growth as a result of delayed migration, combined with a slight drop in the fertility rate due to economic uncertainty. However, the speed at which we add 10 million people has increased Our cities and our CBDs have a bright future. While work from home has been fine, long-time we're going to be connecting in a workplace a couple of times a week This means that CBDs will also be lifestyle cities that are busy beyond work hours The future of work is hybrid – a mix of working remotely and in the workplace. That will have an impact on where we want to live and the types of property we'd like to live in Neighbourhood has become more important than ever. People are seeing more value in community. People have reprioritized, value relationships, want connection, and want to make an impact Many Australians are looking at moving out of the big smoke into regional Australia. And this will be more doable with flexible working more of us working from home or working wall flexible arrangements. With Australians living longer and working later, the workforce is becoming increasingly generationally diverse. Not all Australians feel ready for retirement Boomers are the generation most likely to feel prepared There is a gender gap, with females feeling less prepared than makes to be financially ready for retirement However, Australians are generally optimistic about their financial future COVID has accelerated our move toward a cashless society. Resources: Michael Yardney Mark McCrindle – McCrindle – Experts in Human Behaviour Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Get a bundle of free eBooks and reports at www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: Have you ever wondered what Australia will look like in 2031? With Mark McCrindle Some of our favorite quotes from the show: "And that should give great comfort to people listening to this, particularly those interested in property and in business, that there will be three million or more people coming to Australia." – Michael Yardney "When we look back, we're probably even going to recognize it's the best time in history." – Michael Yardney "While perceived mistakes and failures knock some people down, it knocks them down for a long time, others learn from them." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

The underlying theme of my podcast is property investment, success and money, and today I will be talking a bit about success with Mark Creedon, founder of Business Accelerator Mastermind. But this isn't a business show – you will find what we discuss today relevant no matter what you do for a living, and if you are a property investor, you really do you have a business on the side – a property investment business. Many of us chase career titles, money, social status or even a big property portfolio — and yet we don't feel successful when we get those things. That's because you can only measure success in your life when you define what drives your happiness and helps you find purpose. So if you're struggling to define what a successful life means, you'll be pleased to hear Mark and me explain that: It's never too late to start over. You get to write your own definition of success. What is success? Is it wealth? Is it happiness? Is it fame? I have come to the conclusion that success can't be defined in one sentence, but instead, it is comprised of many things. Success is something you have to define for yourself and no one can do it for you. For some success means a sense of giving back to the world and making a difference. For others, it was a sense of accomplishment in their career or business. For others, it meant doing what they love. I bet there will be some people listening to this podcast disappointed in where they are in life at the moment. For some of their progress, we have been hindered by the economic and health challenges Covid has brought to us. For others, there will be various reasons why they haven't achieved the success they want to yet in life - yet. Stick with us because it's not too late and you're not too old to succeed. I'm sure you've heard stories like: At age 23, Oprah had just been fired from her first broadcasting job. At age 62, Colonel Sanders' fried chicken business KFC finally succeeded. At age 77, Nelson Mandela became South Africa's president after spending 27 years in jail. If we can learn anything from these people who succeed later in life, it's this: Success has no deadline. Success means attempting to move forward. Let's start with understanding the difference between accomplishment and success Accomplishment is often associated with success, but it is not the same. Accomplishment refers to the results we desire when we attempt to reach specific goals. Basically, it is the results that we plan or expect to occur. Success is the positive consequence or outcome of an achieved accomplishment. So what is needed to succeed in life? Physical health: you need to be physically healthy to have the energy to engage in life. If you don't have a baseline of health you can't function and can't be successful. Mental fitness: you need to be continuously engaging your mind. Learning and growing, experiencing new ideas, getting better, pursuing mastery, and putting your ideas to work to accomplish your goals. Emotional health: you need to be self-aware emotionally, feel good about yourself and have a positive self-image. If you are depressed to the point where you can't function, you can't be successful. Social health: you need positive relationships in your life and people that love and support you. You have friends and loved ones that you trust to make you a better person and inspire you to be better there are people you can call at any time of the night if you have a problem. Humans are social if you don't have people you care about and they care about you you can't be successful. Purpose/meaning/spiritual health: you make a positive impact in others' lives, giving meaning and purpose to your work and daily life. This keeps you focused and inspires you to overcome the day-to-day struggles and setbacks that are a part of everyone's life. Material wealth: there is a basic level of food shelter and clothing that all people need and that is paid for through money. If you are too poor or have too much stress from struggling financially you can't be successful. Conclusion Many people attribute success to how much money they have, what kind of car they drive, or the size of their home. However, should material items really define success? True success is gained not only from the achievement of our goals but also from the happiness and satisfaction derived from pursuing those goals. Links and Resources: Why not join Metropole's Business Accelerator Mastermind Learn more about Mark Creedon – Business Coach to some of Australia's leading entrepreneurs Get a copy of Mark's new book here – Have a business not a job Get a heap of special reports and eBooks here- www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: What Does Success Mean to You With Mark Creedon | Build a Business not a Job Some of our favourite quotes from the show: "I believe it's never too late to start over again, and you are allowed to write your own definition of success." – Michael Yardney "You can't just have a goal, have a dream, you also have to have a plan to get there." – Michael Yardney "I don't think you should define success as material items." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how.

Even before property prices started skyrocketing in the past year, buying a new home was unaffordable for many young Australians And today, with the huge surge in prices we've experienced, the dream of homeownership feels like it's moving completely out of reach of many young families. So, are we moving into a society of property haves and have nots? Well, that's one of the topics I'm going to be discussing on today's show with Federal Parliamentarian Tim Wilson who has been outspoken with his views on housing and superannuation. And, interestingly as you'll hear, one of his roles as Chair of the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics is overseeing Philip Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank. We're going to be discuss a range interesting topics, and then at the end, I'll leave you with my mindset message. Interview with Tim Wilson In today's show, I talk about the future of housing and tax in Australia with Tim Wilson who has served as the Federal Liberal Member for Goldstein since 2016 and currently serves as Chair of the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. Now I must declare that Tim is my local member of parliament, but I don't want today's show to be a political discussion, however, I am interested in an insider's view of what's going on with the economy and in particular our property markets. Some of the topics Tim and I Discuss: Why Tim got into politics His concerns about the future of the nation What he's learned about how political philosophy affects practical reality. Why Tim is so passionate about homeownership The belief that in Australia people have a right to own a home The rising gap with young Australians not easily able to get into their first home Whether the wealth gap is causing more political problems. Why homeownership is political The long-term trends around homeownership The barriers to homeownership How homeownership is tied to debates on super Tim's previous outspokenness on superannuation The design of the superannuation system What superannuation is for Where the economy is headed The difference between what the data says and what people are experiencing on the ground Resources: Michael Yardney Tim Wilson – Member of Parliament Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Get a bundle of free eBooks and reports at www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: A politician's view of the housing affordability debate with Tim Wilson MP Some of our favourite quotes from the show: "We're losing the middle class, so the rich are getting richer and the middle class are disappearing a bit." – Michael Yardney "Fortunately, the pessimists were let down when Australia's last quarterly GDP figures came in at a 0.7% growth for the June quarter." – Michael Yardney "How do you know when you're an expert? When you can consistently get the same result in any market." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

You have probably heard about IQ before. You may even have taken some free online quiz that promises to reveal how smart you are compared to Albert Einstein or Stephen Hawking. So, exactly what is IQ? How is it measured? And does it really matter? That's what I'm going to chat with Tom Corley about in today's Rich Habits Poor Habits podcast. And you'll be pleased to learn that your IQ or your intelligence isn't fixed. There are things you can do to increase it and other things that you may be doing that could decrease it. Let's start with a quick disclaimer… Having a lower IQ doesn't mean a person is unable to have a high quality, successful life, and vice versa. Most people have the capacity to learn regardless of their intelligence quotient score. However, some are simply able to learn more quickly or more easily than others. Some people may struggle in one area and have a weakness in one or more types of intelligence while they're very successful in other areas. I love Albert Einstein's famous quote when he said: Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid. Can You Really Increase Your IQ? There's science behind the idea that you can grow your IQ. Certain activities that force your brain to work can increase the number of dendrites your brain cells produce, as well as the number of branches on the axon trunk. Activities that grow your IQ include: Exercise, particularly aerobic exercise Learning activities (auditory, kinetic, tactile, and visual) Practicing existing skills Novel activities Traveling Learning something new Activities that decrease your IQ include: Watching TV Not reading Scrolling social media Sleeping too much Inactivity Wasting time Being close-minded It's easier to increase your IQ when you're younger, and it's more difficult as you get older. However, it is definitely possible even as you get older. It's really your habits that determine your genetics. Links and Resources: Tom Corley - Rich Habits Michael Yardney - Metropole Get your own copy of our international bestseller Rich Habits Poor Habits Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Shownotes plus more here: Yes, it's true! Here's how you can improve your IQ | Rich Habits, Poor Habits with Tom Corley Some of our favourite quotes from the show: "It's not really a competition with other people, how you compare. We don't want to do it that way." –Michael Yardney "Your IQ isn't fixed at birth, and it's really your habits, not your genetics, that are going to determine your intelligence." – Michael Yardney "Nothing's as painful as being stuck where you don't belong." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how.

As a property investor, businessperson or entrepreneur you need to understand more than your craft. But you also need to keep an eye on Australia's economy and while the variables influencing our economic growth are numerous and complex there is one particular driver whose overwhelming influence has the final say – and that's demographics. Yet I've found the significance of demographics is perhaps underappreciated by most investors, which is unfortunate given its impact can be found in almost all aspects of our economy and property markets, from economic growth and consumption to interest rates and valuations, and even to the velocity of money and the balance sheets of the world's central banks. Demographics is what ties it all together. I guess because these trends are slow moving and long-term and not easily visible, they tend to be ignored by many, but they shouldn't be and that's why I have my regular chats with leading demographer Simon Kuestenmacher. Today we're going to talk about some recent forecasts that will have a significant impact on our economy, employment, and our property markets. Then I'll share today's mindset message with you. These projections reveal Australia's economic future As a property investor I've been a lifelong student of demographics because demographic changes influence the underlying growth rate of the economy, our unemployment rate, they directly influence housing market trends, living standards, our savings rates, consumption and the demand for financial assets As you can see, demographic creates our destiny so if you want to become a successful investor you must understand what demographic changes are ahead, and that's why I enjoy my regular chats with Simon Kuesetenmacher the co-founder of The Demographics Group, who's columns and media commentary focus on current socio-demographic trends and how these will impact Australia. Today's chat is about the latest five-year employment projections from the National Skills Commission. Our workforce is projected to grow by almost a million people over the five years from November 2020 to November 2025. That figure is a bit weaker than the growth leading up to the pandemic (1,154,000) but it suggests that we should be cautiously optimistic about our economy. More than half (53 percent) of the new jobs require a university-level education. These jobs can only get filled help via migration. Currently, 15 percent of all jobs are part of the middle class The projected growth falls way short of expectations, as only 7 percent of new jobs will be middle class. A favourable working age population will boost economic growth and provide inflationary pressures An unfavourable demographic makeup will impose deflationary pressures on an economy and provide a headwind to economic growth. A quarter of all new jobs fall into the healthcare sector. The hospitality sector is projected to have fully recovered by 2025 and even slightly improve on pre-pandemic levels. Professional services are adding plenty of jobs for highly trained workers. The two biggest growth occupations are aged and disabled carers and registered nurses, which together will grow by over 100,000 jobs. We are adding about 1000 new carer jobs every single month. Considering more elderly retirees will be keen to continue living in their own homes, the opportunities for innovative in-home care services are endless. Nurses will continue to be in high demand More than half of the new jobs we're creating fall into skill level one. We're also creating a lot of skill level four jobs – a quarter of all jobs will be in skill level four. We're creating some jobs, not too many, in skill level five jobs – very low-level jobs. Optimistic drivers of our economic future: Demographic profile We have this big millennial cohort that saves us from the immediate impacts of the pandemic simply because the millennial cohort, the largest cohort happens to be on this stage of a life cycle where they purchase housing. Students will return, and international talent will come back The international market completely evaporated due to the pandemic. The good news is, as soon as borders open up, the students will be back at pretty much pre-pandemic levels, which will bring life back into the inner cities Resources: Michael Yardney Simon Kuestenmacher - Director of Research at The Demographics Group As our markets move forward why not get the team at Metropole to build you a personalised Strategic Property Plan – this will help both beginning and experienced investors. Get a bundle of eBooks and reports www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: This new research makes Australia's economic future clear, with Simon Kuestenmacher Some of our favourite quotes from the show: "I think a favourable working-age population is going to be really important for us too." – Michael Yardney "We're going to be seen as a safe country to live in, an economy that's going to boom, and we'll be attracting the sort of people who probably in the past would have gone overseas to have their high-paying jobs." – Michael Yardney "Those that battle through the challenges get to reap the rewards." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

Is this the beginning of the end of the property boom? If you've been following the property news lately you be forgiven for thinking so. The Chiefs of two of the biggest banks have suggested that regulators should step in and introduce macro-prudential controls to slow down our booming housing markets. In the closing statements of the 'Housing Market and Financial Stability' speech delivered by the RBA's Assistant Governor Michele Bullock on Wednesday, Bullock hinted at the possibility that the RBA could intervene in Australia's housing market. The International Monetary Fund has issued warning about Australian house prices and Digital Finance Analytics principal Martin North gave a chilling forecast that home prices in Sydney and Melbourne outer suburbs could fall a staggering $200,000 while the crash could be even worse for apartments when lending rules were tightened. So, should we be scared? That's what I'm going to be chatting about with Australia's leading housing economist Dr. Andrew Wilson today. And here's a spoiler alert – NO you don't need to worry! Now if you have been a subscriber to this podcast for a while or followed my blogs or YouTube videos, you'd know for the last 3 years I have recorded a weekly Property Insiders video chat with Dr Andrew Wilson. And his assessment of and forecasts for our economy and property markets have been remarkably accurate so whether you're a beginning property investor or an experienced I'm sure you'll benefit from my chat with Andrew today which is the audio of one of our recent Property Insider videos. However, since we recorded this video Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has given the green light to introducing macroprudential curbs to mortgage lending. The last time lending restrictions were implemented in 2017, the focus was on dampening investor lending and the high percentage of interest-only mortgages. However, this time around the main concern seems to be an increasing share of loans on a high debt-to-income ratio. 22 percent of new mortgage holders now have debt that exceeds their income by more than six times, up from 16 percent a year ago. But, as you'll hear Andrew Wilson explain in our chat, regulators should be aware of unintended consequences. Their crackdown is likely to hit first home buyers rather than Australia's wealthy. Targeting debt-to-income ratios will have a limited impact on higher-wealth households, who often have multiple streams of income. However, it will affect lower-income households and those purchasing property for the first time. There are several reasons the debt-to-income ratios have risen over the past year. Firstly, low interest rates by their nature allow people to service more debt as repayments fall. And second, the share of lending to first-home buyers has increased significantly on the back of HomeBuilder, the federal government's First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, and individual state government incentives. First-home buyers tend to be more indebted as they stretch to get into the market. Given improving homeownership rates is the goal of these government schemes, it seems counterproductive to limit first-home buyers by reducing their ability to borrow. And another reason that debt to income ratios have increased is that many established homeowners have upgraded their homes over the last year or two, partly because of the low-cost borrowing, partly because the value of the home has increased considerably given them equity to upgrade and also because of the increased requirements for more space such as a zoom room, etc. My Property Update Chat with Andrew Wilson Looking back over the first 9 months of this year, our property markets have performed even more strongly than anyone ever expected, with the rates of house price growth at levels not seen for a number of decades. In fact, all capital city markets have already experienced double-digit capital growth so far this year and many locations will experience growth of more than 20% over 2021. Of course, it must be remembered that the last peak for our property markets was in 2017, and in many locations, housing prices remain stagnant over the ensuing couple of years and it was really only earlier this year that new highs were reached. Meaning that average price growth was unexceptional over the long term. But over the last week or two, there seems to have been a sudden change of sentiment about our booming housing markets. A sense of urgency has crept into the tone of those at the helm of our big banks, as the CEOs of two of Australia's largest banks have sounded off about emerging lending risks. Topics We Discuss on Today's Show: Whether or not the high debt-to-income ratios of home buyers is really a problem Price growth has averaged a modest 4% per annum since 2017 – despite record falls in mortgage rates over that period Monthly house price growth in most capital cities has halved over the past three months and continues to track downwards The Reserve Bank does not have a role in setting house prices. The RBA's mandate to stimulate employment which currently means keeping interest rates low The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority, and its purpose of making sure the banks are operating soundly and there is no deterioration in lending standards. There seems little to be concerned about current lending practices as interest-only loans are essentially a non-issue these days, and with rental vacancies at near-record lows, the market needs property investors. Why more Aussies are joining the millionaire club as Australian household wealth reaches record levels, and what that means Resources: Michael Yardney Dr. Andrew Wilson, chief economist My Housing Market As our property markets move forward why not get the team at Metropole to build you a personalised Strategic Property Plan – this will help both beginning and experienced investors. Get a bundle of eBooks and reports www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: Uh-Oh. Is this the beginning of the end of our property boom With Dr. Andrew Wilson Some of our favorite quotes from the show: "You see, targeting debt to income ratios will have limited impact on higher wealth households." – Michael Yardney "We're doing our homework, we're doing our research, we're doing a lot online, and we're just making quick decisions." – Michael Yardney "I've seen it over and over again that unless you grow out to where it is, you end up going back to where you are." – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how