Property Investment, Success & Money | The Michael Yardney Podcast

Boy, there’s a lot going on in the world right now isn't there? Overseas there are all the geopolitical issues, and back home there are our own political issues plus concerns about wages growth, inflation, and the economy. Of course, Australia’s economy and our property markets don’t operate in isolation, and that’s why each month I take time out to have a look at the big picture, the macroeconomic factors affecting not just Australia’s economy, but the world economy, to help us understand what’s ahead for us, and I do this once a month in these Big Picture Podcasts with Pete Wargent. There has been a lot happening since I last spoke with Pete, so I’m sure you’ll get a lot out of the show. Russia / Ukraine A lot of the world has been imposing sanctions on Russia, which will greatly impact the Russian economy. There is currently a huge humanitarian crisis. The world is seeing increased fuel and gas prices. Australia will probably reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. Inflation will probably stick around longer because of this conflict. Monetary policy will become more complicated worldwide. We are likely to see more spending on defence. Brisbane Floods There has been some recent dramatic flooding in Brisbane, and while in the medium term our focus must be on the safety and rebuilding of Queensland, we also must consider the long-term effect of this flooding. The initial focus will be on clean up. Next will be repairs and insurance claims. In the five years after the 2011 floods, house prices in Brisbane increased by about 25% History suggests that the housing market will snap back quickly. Australia’s Great Resignation? Information from the NAB Survey: While around 1 in 5 working Australians actually did change jobs in the past year, when asked about their plans to do so, almost 1 in 4 (23%) said they were also considering leaving their current place of employment. A further 4 in 10 (41%) indicated they were not considering leaving their current jobs but were keeping up to date with potential job opportunities. Around 3 in 10 (31%) said they had no intention to change jobs and did not keep up with potential job opportunities. Just over 1 in 20 (6%) were unsure. A greater share of full-time workers are considering leaving their jobs over the next 12 months (24% vs. 18% of part-timers).  By age, younger workers are more likely to be considering a change (28%), but a sizeable share of Australians aged 30-49 (23%) and 50-64 917%) are also considering doing so.   Importantly, the survey also finds that many of the key reasons workers are contemplating leaving their jobs are “push” factors - a lack of personal fulfillment, purpose or meaning, lack of career growth, mental health, poor pay, and benefits. Many Australians who are considering changing jobs are also looking for a fresh start, with around 3 in 10 planning to move to a different or new role in a new industry. Wages data and Interest rate rises. As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to maintain the cash rate at 10 basis points. When is the Reserve Bank going to raise interest rates?  How high will interest rates go this cycle? These are questions of speculation and concern to commentators, homeowners, and investors. Some commentators were pointing to the possibility of rate hikes as soon as this June. If the RBA raises interest rates this year this will further decelerate already slowing housing price growth. However, for the bank to raise the cash rate, it will need inflation 'sustainably' within the 2% to 3% range – a scenario that would require wages growth in the order of 3-4%. Although the latest inflation data was stronger than expected and underlying inflation is back within the RBA’s target range, the board will be waiting for evidence that wages have turned a corner. What are neutral interest rates? Interest rates are currently at very low stimulatory rates, and at some point, the Reserve Bank is going to need to raise them, not to slow down the market, but to allow a comfortable level of inflation and wages growth to occur. How high these rates will go will determine whether the household sector will be able to service higher mortgage rates. Currently, Australians are wealthier than they ever have been, and many are months ahead in their mortgage repayments. The NAB CEO suggested that he can't see mortgage stress occurring with rate prices anytime soon. Wages and rents are going to increase Home loan activity up again over January Home loan activity continued to rise over January In fact, home lending increased by 44.2% over the ending of January 2022. Net arrivals positive for the first time since June 2021 There were only 245,000 short-term visitors to Australia in 2021, down from 9.5 million two years prior. But now things are beginning to look up for the country’s tourism sector. Australia eased its international border on 15 December 2021 to the 235k visa holders currently outside Australia. It also opened travel bubbles with Japan and South Korea, which follows the existing bubble with Singapore. Travel is set to re-open to all fully vaccinated visa holders from 21 February 2022. Short-term visitors are now coming here, and in January the number of net overseas arrivals shifted into positive territory for the first time in six months. Skills shortages within highly skilled industries should ease as 2022 progresses, though not completely and not overnight. Shortages in agriculture, hospitality, and caregiving may persist for longer. Links and Resources: Metropole’s Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors Get a bundle of free reports and eBooks – www.PodcastBonus.com.au Pete Wargent’s new Podcast Shownotes plus more here: Economic and property trends you must understand. The Big Picture with Pete Wargent Some of our favourite quotes from the show: “There’s already a shortage of tradespeople, there’s a shortage of builders, shortage of materials, and there’s now all of a sudden going to be a huge extra requirement for all of those sorts of things.” –Michael Yardney “What’s been happening up to now is the Reserve Bank’s been saying, “we’re waiting for wages to go up.” – Michael Yardney “I think one has to take into account in one’s planning, but not be worried by these Armeggedon forecasts by the same people who thought the property market was going to crash in 2020.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how  

Last week I was shocked to read the headline “Property prices set to tumble 15% as Ukraine crisis bites.” It seems like the media and many commentators are looking for an excuse, any excuse, to explain why our property markets are going to crash. But now AMP has come out suggesting the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine could slow Australian residential property sales, increase inflationary pressure, and accelerate a downturn in prices of about 15%. And that's despite Australia's property markets generally performing well during major economic, military, and terrorist crises over the last 35 years. And these forecasts don't seem to take into consideration the strength of the Australian economy, the shortage of good housing in Australia which will be challenged by a flood of incoming migrants, and the resilience of our housing markets and the Australian banking system. Now what's happening on the other side of the world is horrific, and the humanitarian and economic impact will be tremendous and possibly long-lasting, but what will it mean for our local property markets? That's what I'm going to ask Dr. Andrew Wilson, Australia’s leading housing economist and chief economist with My Housing Market in today's Property Insiders chat. What will the Ukraine Crisis do to our economy and property markets? Will a war overseas cause local housing values to crash? The biggest local threat from the Ukrainian crisis – outside escalating into a regional or nuclear war – is likely to be rising oil and energy prices increasing inflationary pressure and the prospect of higher interest rates. While the Ukraine war may slow our economic growth a little due to the negative impact on confidence, it’s unlikely to drive Australia into a recession locally – so why should property values fall? Strongest lift in the economy since 1976 The Australian economy (as measured by gross domestic product or GDP) grew by 3.4 percent in the December quarter – the strongest gain since March quarter 1976. The strong growth followed a 1.9 percent contraction in the September quarter, reflecting lockdowns. The economy is up 4.2 percent on the year. The biggest contribution to the expansion of the economy was household spending (+3.2 percentage points), followed by inventories (+0.9pp). A raft of sectors each reduced growth by 0.1pp, including dwellings, commercial construction, private equipment, public investment, net exports, and ownership transfer costs. Links and Resources: Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Dr Andrew Wilson, Chief Economist My Housing Market Subscribe to our weekly Property Insiders videos – www.PropertyInsiders.info Get your bundle of eBooks and reports at www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: Will the Ukraine crisis really cause property values to collapse, with Dr Andrew Wilson Some of our favourite quotes from the show: “At the moment, though, our economy is doing really well. We’ve had the strongest lift in our economy since 1976.” – Michael Yardney “In fact, the quality of your property will make a big, big difference, and be the most important factor in the long-term returns and success of your investment.” – Michael Yardney “Learning how to tolerate feeling lonely and finding ways to keep yourself company could help you get over fear of loneliness.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

With two months of data under our belt, the picture for property market is becoming clearer. Last year, property values increased almost everywhere, often by double digits. However, that’s not how our property markets typically work or what you should expect of them this year. Moving forward, you can expect the Australian property market to be segmented, which is normal for Australia. And you’ll see some segments that outperform the others strongly, some that have more moderate performance, some segments where values stagnate, and some segments where price values fall. That, as well as interest rates, is what you’re going to hear in today’s chat with Dr. Andrew Wilson. We discuss: When is the Reserve Bank going to raise interest rates? How high are interest rates going to go this cycle? What does the latest wages data tell us and what does that mean for interest rates? Wages Rise – But Still Well Below RBA Target Many commentators and economists brought forward their forecasts for the timing of the first RBA cash rate hike. Some were pointing to the possibility of rate hikes as soon as June this year. However, the latest wages data and a likely surge in workers indicate that reaching the RBA’s benchmark of consistent wages growth above 3% per annum won’t occur until next year. In fact, “real” annual wages (the difference between wages and inflation) fell by 0.3% over the year to the December quarter This is the first fall since March 2015 and second only to the record 0.5% fall recorded over September 2008 during the depths of the GFC. We’re not there yet – we haven’t reached a point where an interest rate hike makes sense. What’s happening in our property markets? Our capital city housing markets have continued to report strong results The auction markets have commenced the season with higher clearance rates overall compared to the final months of 2021. Last year property values increased in almost every location around Australia – and that’s very unusual. However, moving forward, the various property markets will be very segmented, which is a more “normal” property market. Despite strong buyer and seller activity, and strong auction clearance rates clearly still indicating a seller’s market, property price growth over the month of February produced mixed results. Andrew Wilson's My Housing Market showed strong growth in asking prices for properties in Brisbane and Adelaide while house price growth in Sydney and Melbourne has moderated over February. While wages around Australia are much the same, the median house price in Sydney is double that of Brisbane and considerably more than the Melbourne a similar house would cost in Melbourne. Affordability is now constraining further price growth in more expensive capitals of Sydney and Melbourne as lending capacity has been maximized. The smaller capitals – particularly Brisbane and Adelaide continue to provide buyers with affordability advantages Housing market demand will continue to be supported by the imminent reintroduction of mass migration and rising confidence in a post-covid recovering economy and reinforced by a clear underlying shortage of housing. Investor activity will also continue to support housing markets, with surging rents enhancing yields and supporting total returns. The level of price growth will be determined by interest rates and income growth going forward which are likely to remain steady for the foreseeable future. The consolidation of affordability in housing markets over time in a normalized economic environment with low interest rates and steady income growth will result in flatter house price outcomes and a more predictable and sustainable housing market. Links and Resources: Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Dr. Andrew Wilson, Chief Economist My Housing Market Subscribe to our weekly Property Insiders videos – www.PropertyInsiders.info Get your bundle of free eBooks and reports – www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: Where is the property market heading? With Dr. Andrew Wilson Some of our favorite quotes from the show: “Even though wages have gone up a bit, most people recognize that it costs them more to live than their wages have gone up.” Michael Yardney “It was a record month with lots of auctions in February, creating some records in the number of sales.” Michael Yardney “What you have right now is enough to start.” Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how  

I was reading a blog written by my good friend Tom Corley the other day and it was about success, and it made me think about success, what it means and how you achieve it. Now, if you’re a regular listener to my podcast, you know we mainly talk about property, but if you think about it, property is just the vehicle you’re using to achieve your own success - be it financial success or wealth or prosperity. The only person that can answer the question “what does success mean” is you. While I’m neither able nor willing to prescribe the ultimate definition of success, as this is not possible, I do want to spend a little bit of time talking about it on this podcast with Mark Creedon so that by the end of today show you’ll figure out what’s important to you and you’ll have some key steps to help you achieve success in life property, business, your personal life or whatever. How Do You Know You’ve Achieved Success? Success can’t be summed up in one sentence and there are different forms of success and that’s what I’d like to chat about today with Mark Creedon, founder and CEO of Business Accelerator mastermind. I believe it is very important that one knows how to define success in life so you can be happy. As I was thinking about what we’d chat about I realized there are a number of different types of success. And I came to the conclusion you can focus on one type or you could pursue multiple types. Financial Success When you have enough wealth to meet your needs and your wants, that’s financial success. Family Success When your kids know their parents love them, they will run through a brick wall for their parents. They’ll do their homework, try to get good grades, take out the garbage, help out around the house, etc. That’s family success. Health Success Exercising every day, eating healthy, moderating your consumption of alcohol and junk food, all lead to being healthy. When you are healthy, that’s health success. Career Success Liking or loving what you do for a living, while earning the money you need to meet your needs/wants, fuels you to do your best at work. Doing your best and feeling fulfilled at whatever it is you do for a living is career success. Social Circle Success Everyone has an inner circle. When those people in your inner circle – family, friends and work colleagues are people you love, like, or care deeply about, that’s social success. Mental Success When your mind is clear, calm, optimistic, upbeat, and not consumed with stress, that’s mental success. Fulfillment Success Short-term happiness is anything you do that creates instant gratification. This type of happiness goes away quickly. Fulfillment, however, is long-term happiness. Fulfillment Success means feeling fulfilled in most aspects of your life: financial, family, health, career, social circle, and mental. This is the most likely the success everyone seeks. So let’s talk a bit more about Success As we’ve said there are many different definitions of success. And not all of these will resonate with everyone, but chances are at least a few of them will. Success is always doing your best. Success can be achieved when you try your best in all aspects of everything you do, even if that doesn’t lead to big results. Success is setting concrete goals. Be realistic and concrete when setting goals. Success does not come from setting abstract goals. If you know where you’re heading, that is a success in itself. Success is having a place to call home. Home is where your heart soars. You are always successful when you can call a place home. Home doesn’t have to be a specific structure. It can be a country, a city, or even a person. Success is understanding the difference between need and want. If you can meet your monthly obligations and fulfill your basic needs, you are successful. Success is believing you can. If you believe you can, you will succeed. Success is remembering to balance work with passion. Work without passion creates undue stress and empty achievements. Focus on what excites you. If you’re happy at your job, that’s great. However, even if you aren’t, you can balance your formal job with hobbies or volunteer work you’re passionate about. Success is taking care of your needs. Remember to put on your own oxygen mask before assisting others. Self-care is essential if you want to have any meaningful impact on the world around you. Success is learning that you sometimes have to say no. Success only comes with a balanced life. Part of balance is learning to say no. Success is knowing your life is filled with abundance. Love, health, friends, family…life is filled with abundance. Recognizing this is an important step to feeling grateful for all life has given you. If you can feel this, you are already experiencing success. Success is understanding you cannot keep what you don’t give away. You will only succeed if you help others succeed. Learning to give instead of always take is part of creating a world we all want to live in. Success is overcoming fear. Conquering a fear makes you feel invincible. Even if it’s confronting just one small fear each week, that is certainly something to feel proud of. Success is learning something new each day. Successful people understand that learning never stops. Take time each day to converse with someone with opposing views, read an interesting article on a topic you know little about, or watch a TED talk on new research. Success is learning that losing a few battles can help you win a war. Successful people choose their battles wisely. When you know which battles will ultimately help you achieve your goals, you will be successful. Success is loving and being loved back. Opening your heart to others is difficult and can produce fear. Having the courage to love and accept love from others is a step toward a fulfilling life and great success. Success is standing your ground when you believe in something. Successful people never give up on things they believe with all their hearts. Success is not giving up. Perseverance creates grit, and grit achieves success. Even if it takes years to achieve a goal, persisting is key if you want success. Success is celebrating small victories. Anytime a goal is reached, or an obstacle is overcome, take time to celebrate, even if it’s something small. Success is never letting a disability hold you back. Disabilities do not define a person’s success. The body and mind will compensate. Just because you can’t do absolutely everything doesn’t mean you can’t do something. Do what your body and mind allow and always push yourself. Success is understanding that you control your destiny. Your destiny is controlled by you and you alone. Take responsibility for your actions and their consequences and you’ll find that you naturally become more successful. The Bottom Line Success can be defined in many ways. If you are experiencing happiness, love, or adventure at this moment, you’ve already found success. Keep it up. Links and Resources: Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Why not join Metropole’s Business Accelerator Mastermind Learn more about Mark Creedon – Business Coach to some of Australia’s leading entrepreneurs  Get a copy of Mark’s new book here – Have a business not a job Join us at Wealth Retreat 2022 – find out more here Shownotes plus more here: What does success mean to you and how can you achieve it With Mark Creedon Some of our favorite quotes from the show: “If you’re optimistic, you’re not going to see just the obstacles.” – Michael Yardney “If you’re able to tell yourself you can achieve your goals, you can achieve your plans, that’s great, you’re already successful in believing that you’re going to do it when unfortunately there are people out there who can’t.” – Michael Yardney “I’d rather be happy at home than right, every time.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

Another week, another fresh take on where the housing market is going. In the past month, all our major banks have changed their outlook for house prices and are now predicting the biggest housing crash in decades. Economists at Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank are forecasting house prices to fall by 10% next year and Westpac forecast house price falls of 7% in 2023 and a further 5% in 2024. Of course, these forecasts are predicated on the assumption that the Reserve Bank will begin raising interest rates later this year and housing will be “collateral damage in the RBA’s efforts to keep inflation on target in the medium term. I thought I’d spend today discussing my thoughts with you – just you and me - no special guest on this show and I’ll give you even more reasons why I can’t see your property market crash ahead. That way, at the end of the show, you’ll have more clarity and certainty about the housing market's future. Should You Be Worried? The major banks are predicting higher rates as soon as the middle of this year. They are also predicting property values to drop significantly in 2023. Will this really happen? We know the Reserve Bank is being patient and may not raise rates as quickly as many expected. In that case, ramifications for the housing market are unlikely to be as dramatic as those you're reading about in the media. Of course, the banks have already raised fixed term interest rates over the last few months, and there's little doubt that we're past the peak of house price growth. At the same time, buyers have more choices as vendors are placing their properties on the market for sale. So back to the original question: What does all this mean for house prices moving forward? Before I give you the answer to that, let’s just work through what’s likely to influence our property markets and the drivers that will affect house prices over the next year. Mortgage rates will rise independently of the RBA. They’ve already started rising. Mortgage rates will remain low by historical standards Despite the rises, the rates are still going to be low when compared to the past. Households are sitting on an unusual amount of savings. Household wealth has surged, along with the value of assets. Low stock availability and the strength of buyer interest will underpin the property markets. Investors, equity gains, and transaction volumes The RBA is waiting for wages to grow further. By the time the RBA raises the rates, wage rises, and a strengthened economy should be in place. Currently, Reserve Bank interest rates are low to bolster the economy and stimulate inflation and wages growth. Once the Reserve Bank believes inflation is comfortably and consistently within its desired band of 2 -3% and unemployment is low enough to cause significant wages growth, then the RBA will slowly raise its interest rates from stimulatory levels to neutral levels. Why home prices won’t crash While falling interest rates create extra borrowing capacity and therefore increase housing affordability, rising interest rates do not necessarily cause house prices to fall. While some commentators are concerned rising rates will cause mortgage defaults, there are several reasons why this is unlikely to occur: In general, Australian households are wealthier than ever and have more equity in their homes because of our property boom. Banks' stringent lending criteria have only ensured they have only been lending to borrowers who could withstand a 2 or 3% rise in interest rates. Many Aussie households have taken advantage of the current low interest rate environment and are three or four months ahead in their mortgage payments. Our economy is bounding along, unemployment levels are low, and with the prospect of wages rises ahead, most households should not feel mortgage stress. So, the bottom line is you don’t have to lose any sleep – the housing market won’t crash, and the value of your home won’t plummet. However, property price growth will slow moving forward, as always happens in cyclical markets. Links and Resources: Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us. Get a heap of eBooks and reports here: -  www.PodcastBonus.com.au Shownotes plus more here: A property price collapse is coming – how scared should you be Some of our favourite quotes from the show: “New borrowers haven’t necessarily seen their money shrink.” – Michael Yardney “Interest rates aren’t going to go up to the level that will cause property values to slump, but yet, mortgage rates from the banks will go up.” – Michael Yardney “Reading’s essential in creativity, in innovation, and for learning from the outcomes of history. It’s an opportunity to open your imagination to other possibilities.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how

Success doesn’t just happen. It’s planned for. You must be intentional about it and that takes discipline What plans do you have for your future? For your investments, your career, your business, your life? It’s much easier to plan than just hoping for things to happen.  You see planning is helping to bring the future into your present so that you can make some things happen right now. In my chat today with leading financial advisor Stuart Weymss, we talk about how he sets his goals, and plans for the future; and considering that he’s very successful in many elements of his life I think it’s worth hearing what he has to say. We also share lots of useful information about investing, so at the end of today’s show, you’ll have better direction about how to make 2022 a great year for your investments and business. 2022 Plans and Predictions I read an interesting quote recently- “The tragedy of life doesn't lie in not reaching your goal. The tragedy lies in having no goals to reach.” Much has been written about goal setting and there are lots of podcasts about that, so today I won't bore you with another podcast about how to set goals, but I want to chat with somebody who set himself some audacious goals and has managed to achieve them, in order to help you make 2022 a great year. Recently leading independent financial advisor Stuart Wemyss wrote a great blog on his predictions for 2022 and how he plans to take advantage of the year, so I thought it was worth having a chat with him to see what he believes 2022 might bring us in investment opportunities. Do you set yourself goals? Last year’s property boom was part of the design for Australia’s recovery from Covid – low interest rates and various incentives were aimed at creating the wealth effect: encouraging people to spend while other incentives encouraged first homeowners to get into the market – it will be a very different year this year. However, I see 2022 as the year many investors try to catch up, realizing that they missed out on the great profits of last year. The problem is they will get it wrong because this year won’t be the same as 2021. It means there will be more property casualties this year. What risks and opportunities do you see ahead in 2022? Tightening of lending / APRA interfering Rising interest rates – RBA unlikely to hike but banks may. Inflation become endemic – unlikely at present Another nasty strain of Covid Supply chains not freeing up as quickly as many think they will Rising interest rates in the US Politicians interfering with the housing market to win votes Geopolitical risks Have you used the risks and opportunities that the market could offer us this year to help you set your own business and financial goals? What goal-setting process do you use? Of course, you can minimize mistakes by putting together a well-formulated investment strategy and action plan based on your clearly defined financial goals and, most importantly, the reality of your situation. Planning is key with everything really and investment is no different. You wouldn’t build a house without a set of plans or drive to a destination without first thinking about the best route to get you there. The same applies to investing Common mistakes that trap the unwary1. Following the wrong financial plan Blindly turning your investments over to a “professional” to do your investing for you Focusing on the “investment” and forgetting about you the investor Focusing on "saving" versus investing Falling victim to the prevailing investment myths Not treating your investments as a business Links and Resources: Michael Yardney Stuart Wemyss – Prosolution Private Clients Stuart’s Book – Rules of the Lending Game & Investopoly Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Shownotes plus more here: Why we’re excited for 2022 – plans and predictions with Stuart Wemyss Some of our favourite quotes from the show: “Having goals and just looking at them works subconsciously, doesn’t it? It’s a GPS, it finds what you’re looking for.” – Michael Yardney “I think it’s worth setting some audacious goals to take advantage of what – if you do the right thing – could be another good year.” – Michael Yardney “By developing a simplified way of thinking, of communicating, of performing, you’re going to break through that ceiling.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how  

If you're an ambitious person who dreams of being super successful, it's natural to look up to those who have already made it and ask: How did they do it? Was it incredible talent? Focus? Hard work? What techniques or strategies did they use that I can steal? Now it’s the same whether we’re talking about property investing, business success, or entrepreneurship. There's only one problem with that approach, according to some fascinating new science highlighted by the MIT Technology Review and also a handful of honest investors and entrepreneurs, luck plays a way bigger role in success than most of us acknowledge. If you try to follow the path of your role models without acknowledging that fact, you're likely to run into some very serious problems. So, in today’s episode, I’m going to be joined by my business partner and founder of Business Accelerator Mastermind Mark Creedon as we discussed the importance of luck in your success. And whether you’re a business owner, professional, entrepreneur, or property investor I’m sure I’ll get some benefit from our chat, so welcome to today’s show. What role does luck play in your success? I recently read an MIT article that highlighted something I already knew - success isn’t evenly spread through the population. In fact, its distribution follows a pattern where a tiny number of people end up with the vast majority of the money, or a small group of business owners significantly more successful than the rest, or whatever other marker of material success you're looking at. Like many things in life success follows the Pareto principle - the 8020 rule, but if you think about it; it’s a little unusual because talent and intelligence are spread much more evenly throughout the population. So why are some people so much more successful than others just like really have a role to play? In my mind, the biggest thing that holds people back from becoming rich is their thinking. As we explain in Rich Habits Poor habits - your thoughts lead to your feelings – your feelings lead to your actions, and your actions lead to a result. so, your outside world is a direct reflection of the inside world. And we have found that the way the rich think is very different from the way the poor think. The Rich Are Positive Thinkers – A positive mental outlook is critical to overcoming problems, obstacles, pitfalls, mistakes, and failures. Staying positive is a critical component to becoming wealthy. Positivity is like a radar in search of solutions to intractable problems. The Poor Are Negative Thinkers – Negative thinkers are unable to see solutions to problems. Thus, they are unable to overcome obstacles, pitfalls, mistakes, and failures. Opportunities pass them by because they are not looking for opportunities. They are too focused on the negative consequences. The Rich Are Decision-Makers –Forging the habit of making decisions is critical to success. Those who develop the habit of making decisions are sought after as leaders, by others. Decision-makers have forged the habit of overcoming the fear of making decisions along with the paralysis of analysis associated with those unable to make decisions. The Poor Let Others Make Decisions –They succumb to the fear of making a decision. They get lost in analysis and overthinking, which is a form of procrastination. The poor feel uncomfortable about making decisions, so they defer to others. What’s more, you need the right mindset to be lucky. Another thing I found is that luck finds positive people — people who seek out opportunities. And luck favors the persistent. All successful investors, businesspeople, and entrepreneurs have failed more often than unsuccessful people. They became a success at failing and survived until they became lucky and thrived. Luck is a reward for persistence. The fact is, those who try the hardest are the luckiest. Or, more accurately, they simply never stopped trying to succeed and their persistence eventually created good luck. Those who reach the top in property investment set themselves up to get lucky because they: Set long-term goals — They bring their future into the present so they can do something about it now, rather than just hoping it will all turn out all right. Delay gratification — they spend less than they earn, so they can save and invest the difference, meaning they’ll have lots of money to spend in the future. Understand the importance of capital growth of their assets. Continuously study the markets and are relentless optimists who don’t get scared by the property pessimists who worry that our markets will crash. Are risk-averse and, rather than speculating, invest using a time-tested strategy that allows them to say no to more so-called “opportunities” than they say yes to. Are decisive — while they’re not in a hurry to find a good investment opportunity when one arrives (when luck smiles on them) they’re in a hurry to secure it. Specialize rather than diversify — that’s how they become an expert in their field. Treat their property investments like a business — being financially accountable and regularly reviewing their portfolio’s performance. Build a team of consultants and mentors around them, recognizing that this is an investment, not an expense. Admit to their mistakes and correct them. Don’t blame others — they take full responsibility for the results in all areas of their life because they know that ultimately, they are based on the decisions and choices they made. Celebrate their successes along the way knowing if they don’t enjoy the journey they won’t enjoy the destination. In my mind, creating luck boils down to doing specific things that increase your chances for luck to occur. Step #1 Pursue a Dream Step #2 Create Specific Goals Around That Dream Step #3 Define All of the Goals You Must Achieve in Order to Realize Your Dream Step #4 Take Repetitive Daily Action Around Each Individual Goal – Eventually, Those Actions Will Become Habit – This is Often Referred to as Persistence Step #5 Engage in Those Daily Habits Forever Step #6 Wait For That Lucky Break None of the success formulas in the world will produce success unless the formula provides you with specific action steps you need to take in order to create Luck. Good daily habits automate persistence and persistence creates Luck. In summary: The bottom line is, like it or not, luck plays an outsized role in success. The right response isn't to pretend that you can somehow outwit or outwork that reality (though it is true you'll definitely not succeed if you learn nothing and sit on the couch all day). Instead, increase your odds of hitting the success jackpot by developing Rich habits. Links and Resources: Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Why not join Metropole’s Business Accelerator Mastermind Learn more about Mark Creedon – Business Coach to some of Australia’s leading entrepreneurs  Get a copy of Mark’s new book here – Have a business not a job Shownotes plus more here: Why luck matters more than you might think – in your property investments and success in general Some of our favorite quotes from the show: “I believe we’re all driving around with one foot on the accelerator and another on the brake.” – Michael Yardney “A lot of people call themselves mentors in the property space when really that’s just cloaking themselves from being property marketers or salespeople.” – Michael Yardney “While cash flow keeps them in the game, it’s capital gain that will get them out of the rat race.” –Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how  

In the past week, three of our four major banks have changed their outlook for house prices and are now predicting the biggest housing crash in decades. It will I be right? Economists at Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank are forecasting house prices to fall by 10% next year and Westpac forecast house price falls of 7% in 2023 and a further 5% in 2024. The forecasts are predicated on the assumption that the Reserve Bank will begin raising interest rates later this year and housing will be “collateral damage in the RBA’s efforts to keep inflation on target in the medium term. But how likely are these forecasts to come about? The Australian banks don’t have a good track record of housing market forecasts. I remember two years ago, in March 2020, when the same economists who are making these let’s call them “interesting” predictions today, similarly predicted a double-digit fall in house prices to occur then, and that didn’t eventuate. They underestimated the strength and resilience of the housing markets. This time last year the same economists were late to the party and only after our property markets turned the corner almost 6 months earlier, they realised what was really happening on the ground and forecast strong price growth for 2021. However, once again they underestimated the strength of our housing markets and the strong price growth that ensued. But if price rises house prices fall by the amounts predicted this time around, that will make it the biggest housing downturn in modern history. While we have seen various housing market segments suffer significant price falls, we haven't seen the overall Australian housing market crash like these economists are predicting. The last time property took a downward turn was in 2018, when Australian house prices plunged by about 5 percent overall. Prices also fell 4.8 percent in 2011 after a period of post-global financial crisis rate rises from the Reserve Bank. Those falls pale in comparison to what banks now predict. They are quite remarkable forecasts. Historically we’ve only had three years of falling prices since 1987. Why would house prices fall? Let’s be clear… the Reserve Bank doesn’t want the housing markets to crash. It wants that about as much as it wants another strain of coronavirus. Reserve Bank interest rates are currently low to bolster the economy and stimulate inflation and wages growth. Once the Reserve Bank believes inflation is comfortably and consistently within its desired band of 2 -3% and unemployment is low enough to cause significant wages growth, then the RBA will slowly raise its interest rates from stimulatory levels to neutral levels. Of course, there is some conjecture as to how high a neutral interest rate is, but considering the general level of Australian household debt, it is unlikely to require a big rise in rates. There is no reason for the Reserve Bank to raise rates sufficiently high to create a recession or a housing market crash. While falling interest rates increase borrowing power and stimulate higher house prices, historical data shows it takes time for rising interest-rate to drive lower price growth. Why home prices won’t crash While falling interest rates create extra borrowing capacity and therefore increased housing affordability, rising interest rates do not necessarily cause house prices to fall. While some commentators are concerned rising rates will cause mortgage defaults there are several reasons why this is unlikely to occur: In general, Australian households are richer than they ever have been and have more equity in their homes because of our property boom. Banks' stringent lending criteria have only ensured they have only been lending to borrowers who could withstand a 2 or 3% rise in interest rates. Many Aussie households have taken advantage of the current low-interest-rate environment and are three or four months ahead in their mortgage payments. Our economy is bounding along, unemployment levels are low and with the prospect of wages rising ahead, most households should not feel mortgage stress. US inflation at 40-year high: Will Australia follow? Last week the United States announced its official inflation figure jumped 7.5 percent in the last year, the largest spike since 1982. A rise in inflation was expected, but this was higher than most economists anticipated, and the US Federal Reserve has already flagged interest rate hikes to cool rising prices. Of course, inflation has been rising globally, with many central banks raising rates or at least flagging future rate rises. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is one of the few central banks brushing off inflation fears, insisting Australia's economy is in a different position. Links and Resources: Michael Yardney Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property Plan Click here and have a chat with us Dr. Andrew Wilson, Chief Economist My Housing Market Subscribe to our weekly Property Insiders videos – www.PropertyInsiders.info Shownotes plus more here: Major banks predict a 14% house price drop. They’re wrong! With Dr. Andrew Wilson Some of our favorite quotes from the show: “Let’s be clear, the Reserve Bank doesn’t want the house market to crash, it wants it about as much as it wants another strain of coronavirus.” – Michael Yardney “The problem is, if you look for evil, you’ll find it.” – Michael Yardney “It doesn’t take much imagination to realize we’re going to keep improving.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how  

A lot has already been written about trends, predictions and forecasts for 2022. Yet today, I’m going to be chatting with leading demographer and futurist Simon Kuestenmacher about the demographic, social, and economic trends that will shape 2022. This is the type of information property investors, business people, and entrepreneurs need to understand to make better-informed decisions. And, of course, I’ll be sharing my popular mindset message at the end. Predictions For the Year 2022 The coronavirus pandemic was a great reminder of how difficult it is to make accurate forecasts, especially about the future. But recently, demographer and futurist Simon Kuesetenmacher, the co-founder of The Demographics Group, was prepared to stick his neck out and make 22 predictions about what 2022 holds for Australia in his column in The New Daily. And I’m looking forward to discussing them today. Millennials continue on to family-sized houses. Australia’s largest generation reaches the family formation stage of the lifecycle and continues to leave their hipster neighbourhoods in the capital cities, searching for family-sized homes. As the decentralization of the population continues, local governments face predictable challenges. As growth in the regions continues, local councils must make enough land available to accommodate the increased demand for housing. Hybrid work will dominate. Working from home is here to stay, but exclusively virtual working arrangements will remain the exception. House prices will continue to rise. Demand for family-sized housing is guaranteed to be high due to the Millennials. Soon migrants will be returning to the market. Government has no interest whatsoever in pushing house prices down. The average Australian house will get bigger in 2022. Lockdowns pulled functions from outside the home into the home. We entertain, eat, exercise, study, work at home more often. Some (not all) of these changes will stick, and require more space. As we are cocooning more, Bunnings, Barbecues Galore, Harvey Norman, and co will be doing well! We spend less money on traveling overseas, save money by avoiding the daily commute, get away with owning fewer formal items of clothing, and have more money available to throw around. A fair bit of this disposable income will be used to make the family home more liveable. One size doesn’t fit all. Customer segmentation will be trickier in 2022. Different levels of lockdown restrictions bred different habits across the country. The socio-economic divide widens. The pandemic didn’t impact all of us in the same way. Highly skilled workers kept their jobs and many industries saw big profits while lower-skilled workers lost their jobs at high rates. Baby Boomers will act with a sense of urgency. They feel cheated out of two healthy years of their retirement. They are keen to travel, spend time with the grandkids, and feel “it’s their time now”. The trend towards sliding into retirement continues. In 2022 a higher share of workers in their 60s and early 70s will remain in the workforce in a part-time capacity. This means downsizing is pushed backward too. Gen X is taking over even more leadership positions. As Baby Boomers leave the workforce it’s Gen X’s time to dominate company boards and C-level roles. Xer leaders introduce generous parental leave policies and continue to fight for equal pay. The healthcare sector continues to boom. Australia remains a rich and aging country. No industry will grow as fast as healthcare. While Australia will recover economically in 2022, a near-universal skills shortage will hold back economic growth. Hiring qualified staff will be challenging. The short-term solution will be for existing staff to work longer hours. More retail spending will take place online. Expect more vacancies on your local main street. Struggling main streets are terrible for towns and neighborhoods. Smart local governments and business councils will find creative ways of repurposing empty shop fronts. Data released this week saw the fertility rate fell to an all-time low of 1.58 kids per woman in 2020. The impact of COVID will only be seen in the data for the year 2021. This data will be published in 2022 and will show that Australians had even fewer kids during COVID. Women will return to work within a year of childbirth in high numbers. This means demand for childcare will remain stable despite declining births. The world will praise Australia for its handling of COVID. Only two measures will be looked at: deaths per million and the vaccination rate. People across the world will view our nation as a desirable location. Extreme weather events will be occurring more frequently, and we must prepare for this. We can’t say whether 2022 will see such events, but we know that they are statistically more likely. The older generations join the young in demanding better digital services. COVID taught many older people to use QR codes, download apps (turns out the COVIDSAFE app was good for something after all), and purchase things online. All industries and all levels of government must improve their digital offerings. The death of the wallet. Digital cash, digital ID. You can get through 2022 just fine without ever carrying a wallet. Early 2022 will see the return of migration, albeit not yet at pre-pandemic levels. International students will be first, arriving in time for the semester starting in March. This will help stabilise the inner-city rental market, help fill casual jobs in retail and hospitality, and generally boost the economy. 22. Most importantly, we will remain an optimistic and forward-looking people. Links and Resources: Simon Kuestenmacher - Director of Research at The Demographics Group Join Michael Yardney and Simon Kuestenmacher at Wealth Retreat 2022 – register your interest here. As our markets move forward why not get the team at Metropole to build you a personalised   Strategic Property Plan – this will help both beginning and experienced investors. Shownotes plus more here: 22 predictions of what 2022 holds for Australia, with Simon Kuestenmacher Some of our favourite quotes from the show: “The poorer workers actually suffered more, while many Australians are much wealthier at the end of the year than they were at the beginning of last year.” – Michael Yardney “We always have been a very favoured country for people to come, to live, to work, and this is only going to work well in our favour.” – Michael Yardney “I’ve found that one of the biggest things holding people back from success in all areas of their life is fear of failure.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how  

Australia’s economy and our property markets don’t operate in isolation, so I believe it’s good to regularly have a look at the big picture, the macroeconomic factors affecting not just Australia’s economy, but the world economy to help us understand what’s ahead for us. I do this once a month in these Big Picture Podcasts with Pete Wargent. For our first Big Picture podcast for the year, Pete and I will briefly review what happened over the last year and our thoughts on the significant issues that will influence the world economy, Australia’s economy, and our property markets. February’s Big Picture It wasn't that long ago that we celebrated the beginning of a new year - 2020 - with anticipation of another decade of the roaring 20s. But instead, COVID-19 dominated the news, economic landscape, and our lives. At one point, it almost looked like Australia was on track to become ‘Covid free.’ And then came Delta, and the economy changed again. Looking back to this time last year, we thought we were over it, and then came Delta, and everything changed, and the southern states and particularly Melbourne was, once again locked down. And when we eventually thought we had this coronavirus thingy licked, along came Omicron. Despite this, our economy flourished, unemployment fell, and our property markets delivered a once-in-a-generation boom. Despite a wall of worry with coronavirus, 2021 was an excellent year for investors, so what’s ahead for us? What will 2022 bring? What will be the significant issues that will influence our economy and housing markets this year? Six things that went wrong in 2021 Several coronavirus waves disrupted economic activity. Inflation took off as coronavirus boosted spending on goods and disrupted production. Some key central banks started to remove monetary stimulus earlier than expected. Bond yields surged. Chinese growth slowed sharply. Geopolitical tensions with China, Russia & Iran stayed high. Seven reasons for optimism about economic growth Coronavirus could finally be moving from a pandemic to being endemic – more on this below. Excess savings will provide an ongoing boost to spending. While Fed and likely RBA monetary policy will tighten this year, it will still be easy. Inventories are low and will need to be rebuilt, which will boost production. Positive wealth effects from the rise in share and home prices will help boost consumer spending. China is likely to ease policy to boost growth. While business surveys are down from their highs, they remain strong and consistent. Economic growth Omicron shouldn’t slow Australia’s economic recovery through 2022 The Australian economy is tipped to grow by 3.6% through 2022, driven by growth in NSW and the NT. 2021 recorded the fastest growth in the Australian economy since 2007, making it the second-fastest growth seen in the past two decades Shoppers have tightened their purse strings and locked themselves down through January, as consumer confidence tallies its worst post-Christmas performance in 30 years. Interest rates Most banks believe interest rates are going to go start increasing in 2022 and the financial markets have priced in an interest rate hike Banks have increased their 3- 5-year fixed rates Six things to watch out for in 2022 Coronavirus – new variants could set back the recovery. Inflation – if it continues to rise and long-term inflation expectations rise, central banks will have to tighten aggressively. US politics – political polarisation is likely to return to the fore in the US. China's issues are likely to continue – with the main risks around its property sector and Taiwan. Russia – a Ukraine invasion could add to EU energy issues. The Australian election – but if the policy differences remain minor, a change in government would have little impact. Outlook for the property markets Continues growth but slower Strong rental growth More choices so a flight to quality Return to form for regional Australia Links and Resources: Metropole’s Strategic Property Plan – to help both beginning and experienced investors Join us at Wealth Retreat 2022 Pete Wargent’s new Podcast Shownotes plus more here: The Big Picture – Economic trends and influences for 2022, with Pete Wargent Some of our favourite quotes from the show: “None of those cliffs the naysayers warned us about ever eventuated.” – Michael Yardney “I bet you there’s going to be a few packages that’s going to stimulate the economy with an election coming up.” – Michael Yardney “You don’t have to be the same after today, ever.” – Michael Yardney PLEASE LEAVE US A REVIEW Reviews are hugely important to me because they help new people discover this podcast. If you enjoyed listening to this episode, please leave a review on iTunes - it's your way of passing the message forward to others and saying thank you to me. Here's how