WEALTHTRACK

We are witnessing massive policy responses of historic proportions. The fiscal and monetary reaction to the COVID-19 shut down of economies around the world has been unprecedented in its size and speed. How effective will it be and who stands to benefit from the stimulus? Who is at most risk of being left behind? We have measured answers from a major player in resolving the Global Financial Crisis a decade ago.  John Lipsky, who was the First Deputy Managing Director at the IMF from 2006-2011 during the height of the crisis joins us with his in-depth analysis of the policy response then and now and perspective on current risks. He raises serious concerns about the economic health of southern Europe, Italy in particular and emerging market countries as well.  It’s a heads up for the international exposure of our portfolios. John Lipsky Former Acting Managing Director, International Monetary Fund Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies: - Distinguished Scholar at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs - Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Institute WEALTHTRACK #1643 published April 24, 2020

When economies started shutting down in various parts of the world we all knew that the economic numbers would be bad. How could they not be? We are just now getting some measure of the initial damage in terms of unemployment, business activity, and earnings. For some longer-term perspective on the economic and financial damage we are experiencing and some investment guidance I reached out to a trusted source for some advice. Nick Sargen, now Senior Economic Advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, who has 50 years of experience as an international economist and global money manager. He is also the author of two timely books, Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets and Investing in the Trump Era: How Economic Policies Impact Financial Markets.  A student of financial crises, Nick’s thoughtful and knowledgeable assessment of the state of the economy and markets and his advice for investors is definitely worth hearing.  WEALTHTRACK #1642 published on April 17, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/expect-more-economic-market-damage-as-pandemic-repercussions-multiply-says-investment-veteran/

Retirees and near-retirees have suffered a punch to the gut and their portfolios with the coronavirus induced shutdown of the economy and the massive and precipitous market decline. After a decade which resulted in longevity records being set by both the economic recovery and bull market this black swan event was a stunner which requires a reassessment and regrouping of life plans, particularly for seniors.   The most important actions we can take are to have a plan to protect what we have, live within our means and limit the drawdowns from already battered portfolios. How do we find the right financial advisor to help us do that? That is one of the questions we will answer in this week’s WEALTHTRACK.   One lesson we learned from the last financial crisis and recession was panic selling resulted in permanent losses. Investors who kept their targeted stock allocation benefitted from the eventual market recovery.   Another lesson learned was the value of Social Security. No matter what happens in the market it is the one guaranteed, an inflation-adjusted annuity that most working Americans are entitled to. The longer Americans can delay collecting that benefit, until age 70 if possible, the bigger the lifetime payout is.   That is a point upon which our two guests heartily agree. Teresa Ghilarducci is a Professor of Economics at the New School for Social Research where she is Director of the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), and the Retirement Equity Lab (ReLab), which researches the causes and consequences of the retirement crisis. Ghilarducci is co-author with former WEALTHTRACK guest, Tony James of Rescuing Retirement: A Plan to Guarantee Retirement Security for All Americans.   Jamie Hopkins is Director of Retirement Research at Carson Wealth, and Finance Professor of Practice at Creighton University College of Business. Hopkins, a frequent WEALTHTRACK guest is an expert on retirement income and author of Rewirement: Rewiring the Way You Think About Retirement.    WEALTHTRACK #1642 broadcast on April 10, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/surprising-retirement-planning-essentials-from-diet-to-advisor-credentials-from-two-retirement-pros/ Books: Rewirement: Rewiring the Way You Think About Retirement:  https://amzn.to/3ec2lDc  Rescuing Retirement: A Plan to Guarantee Retirement Security for All Americans: https://amzn.to/2XoWnck

One of the biggest trends in investing in recent years has been the migration of investment dollars into exchange-traded funds and out of traditional mutual funds. The numbers are staggering.  This week’s guest had the foresight and guts to get involved in ETFs in their early stages and more recently cryptocurrencies which are still in their development phase. We are going to get his update on both.  He is Matt Hougan, Global Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, a cryptocurrency asset manager. Hougan describes it as the “crypto equivalent of an S&P 500 fund.”  He also is Chairman of Inside ETFs where he was CEO until joining Bitwise. Inside ETFs is the world’s largest ETF education and events company.  He will give us advice on investing dos and don’ts in both investment vehicles.   WEALTHTRACK #1640 broadcast on April 3, 2020. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/flows-into-etfs-and-long-term-returns-on-bitcoin-are-staggering-matt-hougan-is-an-expert-on-both/

Life can change in a New York minute, and it has. The world is going through a terrible experience right now.  As President Trump has said we are at war with an invisible enemy.  I would add it’s an enemy that can strike anyone, anywhere which makes it so unsettling. The coronavirus is upending lives and societies.  The steps we are taking to combat it are harsh, isolating, and damaging psychologically, emotionally, and financially. Everyone is affected.  Many Americans are losing their paychecks and jobs for an indeterminate amount of time. Some are in danger of losing their businesses.   The cynic’s definition of a recession is when your neighbor loses her job.  A depression is when you lose your job.  Until we get a handle on the length and scope of COVID-19 we won’t be able to define its impact.  This week’s guest comes from a family of investors who take the long view. He is third generation value investor Christopher Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors an independent investment management firm. Davis will provide some welcome perspective on how the firm has managed through crisis conditions for more than half a century. WEALTHTRACK #1639 broadcast on March 27, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/third-generation-investor-chris-davis-share-50-years-of-perspective-on-managing-through-a-crisis/

The markets will fluctuate said J.P. Morgan.  We will add they can fluctuate dramatically and quickly. We are now living that reality daily. The longest bull market in U.S. history, which began in March of 2009 saw stocks reach new highs in February only to plummet this month at historic speeds and magnitudes. The bull market officially ended on March 11th and the bear market began with a 20% plus decline in major markets from their previous highs. Since then the bear market has been deepening. The longest economic recovery in U.S. history is also at risk.  What seemed highly unlikely to most economists just a few weeks ago, namely a U.S. recession is now becoming a consensus view.  All it would take is two consecutive quarters of contracting growth and it looks like the second and third quarters of 2020 will qualify. Wall Street’s number one economist and WEALTHTRACK guest Ed Hyman issued his U.S. recession forecast on March 7th citing the triple whammies of oil price collapse, coronavirus economic impacts, and China-related supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, the bond markets are setting their own records. Yields on U.S. Treasury securities the 10-year Treasury note and the 30-year Treasury bond have both been reaching historic lows. When bond prices rise yields fall so Treasuries have once again proven to be safe havens as well as excellent investments in the face of stock market declines. None of this is a surprise to this week’s guest who has been warning of economic and stock market risks for years on WEALTHTRACK and the value of owning U.S. Treasury securities and cash. He is Robert Kessler, founder, and CEO of Kessler Investment Advisors, a manager of fixed-income portfolios with a specialty in U.S. Treasuries for institutions and high net worth individuals around the globe. When Kessler was on WEALTHTRACK a year ago he warned there was a recession dead ahead. He said it’s all about debt. WEALTHTRACK # 1638 broadcast on March 20, 2020

Before the coronavirus crisis, Matthews Asia’s Robert Horrocks was bullish on China’s investment prospects. He believes China’s stock markets are getting back on track to outperform in the years ahead. WEALTHTRACK #1636 published on March 04, 2020. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/china-coronavirus-aftermath/ "Current Conditions Call For a Long-Term Focus" : https://us.matthewsasia.com/perspectives-on-asia/market-updates/matthews-asia-perspectives-view/article-1708/Current-Conditions-Call-for-a-Long-Term-Focus.fs

Fears of a coronavirus induced hit to the global economy and corporate earnings drove stock markets into official correction territory today. It takes a 10% decline from the previous high to meet that definition and the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all exceeded that standard today after relentless selling this week. For institutional investors, who are frequently judged on quarterly performance the safest course of action from a short-term performance standpoint is to sell first and ask questions later.  Individuals are under no such pressure. As frequent WEALTHTRACK guests and The Wall Street Journal’s “The Intelligent Investor” columnist Jason Zweig wrote this week, “The Pros Have to Sell Stocks Now. You Don’t.” The article gives very compelling reasons why. How damaging will the coronavirus prove to be to business? In a WEALTHTRACK podcast, Nicholas Bohnsack, co-founder, and partner of top-rated macro research firm Strategas Research Partners assesses the evidence so far and why he and his team believe there are reasons for optimism longer term. WEALTHTRACK #1635 published on February 28, 2020 The Pros Have to Sell Stocks Now. You Don’t.: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-pros-have-to-sell-stocks-now-you-dont-11582722004? More info: https://wealthtrack.com/coronavirus-the-markets/

The reality is most Americans have not met their retirement goals. Here are some findings from a recent Fidelity Investments Retirement Mindset Study which surveyed adults of all ages, both male and female. Eighty-two percent of the general population don’t have a retirement plan in place. It’s not as if Americans aren’t worried about retirement. They are. Seventy-five percent feel only somewhat confident to not confident at all about their retirement finances. What worries people the most about retirement? Economic concerns that can’t be predicted and are out of their control. The next big unpredictable area of concern is Social Security benefits. The third is inflation. Needless to say, the biggest personal worry is outliving their assets. We want to change this dynamic starting right now. And we have the right guest to help us. Kim Lankford is an award-winning personal finance journalist, now working freelance. She was a long time contributing editor and columnist for Kiplinger’s. One of the first steps she recommends to plan for retirement or manage it is to understand our monthly cash flows. WEALTHTRACK #1634 broadcast on Feburary 21, 2020. Episode web page: https://wealthtrack.com/filling-in-the-retirement-income-gap-with-insurance-expert-kim-lankford/ Fidelity Investments Retirement Mindset Study: https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/fidelity/retirement-mindset-fact-sheet.pdf Investopedia – Guide to Annuities: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/annuity.asp Insured Retirement Institute - Glossary of Annuity Product Terms: https://irionline.org/research-and-education/educational-resources/annuities-glossary

In the current market cycle dating from 2009 coming out of the great financial crisis: - Equities dominated bonds and commodities. - The U.S. trumped international. - Growth outpaced value. - And large U.S. tech companies dominated just about every sector and security. As in previous bull market periods, money flows to the best performers and flees the laggards. This record-setting U.S. bull market has also accentuated the attraction of index investing, as mutual funds and ETFs based on the S&P 500, in particular, have been among the decade’s stars. It’s been a challenging period for active managers, especially those focused on value investing and international markets. This week’s guest checks off all of those boxes but remains a fierce advocate for all three approaches. She is Rupal Bhansali, Chief Investment Officer of International and Global Equities at Ariel Investments. Bhansali shows how to apply it to the world of investing to improve one’s odds of achieving above-average returns with below-average risks. Her upside-down investment approach focuses on avoiding losers instead of picking the winners WEALTHTRACK #1633 broadcast on February 14, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/non-consensus-value-investing-with-ariel-investments-rupal-bhansali/ Book: https://amzn.to/2SqA9DK   Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else Is Wrong