WEALTHTRACK

The first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve since 2018 happened this week, with the central bank planning six more of 25 basis points or one-quarter of a percent each this year. The lending market is already ahead of the Fed. The average fixed rate 30 year mortgage topped 4% for the first time since 2019 in the latest reporting week. It's happening in a hot housing market. The median listing price for homes hit an all-time high of $392,000 in February and the inventory of homes for sale fell to a record low in January. By raising rates the Federal Reserve intends to make borrowing more expensive. That’s supposed to dampen demand for goods and services and slow price increases, i.e., inflation down. With inflation running close to an 8% annual rate, a 40 year high, it remains to be seen how effective the Fed’s incremental approach will be. This week’s guest, a noted investment strategist known for his macro analysis and thematic investing, expects long-term inflation to be higher than it's been in the past decade and believes most portfolios are not positioned for this new reality. In fact, he says the vast majority of investors, institutional and individual, are holding the winners of yesteryear instead of the winners of future years. He has recommendations to bring us up to speed! He is Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors; he says most portfolios are not positioned for a new era of higher inflation. WEALTHTRACK #1838 broadcast on March 18, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/how-to-reposition-your-portfolio-for-a-new-higher-inflation-era-with-top-strategist-rich-bernstein/

Russia’s brutal, unprovoked assault on Ukraine is dominating the news headlines, but so far its market impact has been short-lived. ClearBridge Investment strategist Jeff Schulze says what really matters to the markets in the direction of the economy and Federal Reserve policy. According to his proprietary Recession Risk Dashboard, the vast majority of his twelve key indicators remain positive.     More info: https://wealthtrack.com/ukrainian-invasion-impact/

Since the future is essentially unknowable, this week’s podcast guest focuses on what is knowable and controllable, mainly our own reactions. He is veteran personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements, a former colleague of mine at The Wall Street Journal who was its personal finance columnist for nearly 20 years. The author of several books including From Here to Financial Happiness and How to Think About Money, Clements is the Founder and Editor of HumbleDollar, a free weekly newsletter devoted to telling you “everything you need to know about money.”  Veteran personal finance journalist Jonathan Clements explains why the most successful approach to dealing with turbulent markets is to stay invested. WEALTHTRACK #1836 published on March 04, 2022

Target-date funds have $3 trillion dollars in assets. Millions of Americans are enrolled in them, mostly through company 401(k) plans. They have a track record, multiple products, plenty of competition and fees are declining as a result.  In an article titled “In Praise of Target-Date Funds,” one of our favorite WEALTHTRACK guests, Morningstar’s Director of Personal Finance, Christine Benz described them as “...nothing short of the biggest positive development for investors since the index fund.” That got my attention! So this week we are interviewing one of the best target-date managers in the business. He is Wyatt Lee, who is Head and Co-Manager of T. Rowe Price’s $390 billion Target Date Strategies, the largest group of actively managed target-date products in the U.S.  The firm’s Retirement Series earned a Gold analyst rating from Morningstar, one of only two in the actively managed category, for its stellar performance and high ratings for its process, people, and the parent company.  Lee begins with the basics and defines what a target-date fund does and how the product has evolved since it was first introduced in 1994. It turns out target-date funds can be an effective retirement vehicle for investors at all stages of life and that there are many options available. I learned a great deal from Lee. I hope you will too.  WEALTHTRACK #1834 broadcast on Febuary, 18, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/target-date-fund-advantages-with-t-rowe-prices-wyatt-lee-one-of-the-top-managers-in-the-business/

Yankee legend Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s deja vu all over again,” one of his many memorable expressions. That’s the way I feel this week.   The “deja vu all over again” is the theme of “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Federal Reserve's recent pivot from inflation promoter to inflation fighter puts that adage front and center in the current debate between the bulls and the bears. This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career. He has been bullish since the Fed opened the monetary spigots in 2009. He is Ed Yardeni, a Ph.D. economist, long-time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by institutional investors.  He is also the author of several books.  The latest, In Praise of Profits! is dedicated to progressives to help them understand that “profits isn’t a four-letter word.”  Another Yardeni book is Fed Watching for Fun and Profit: a Primer for Investors, which we discussed in-depth in an earlier interview. In that book, he wrote: “To do this job well, I've learned that nothing is more important than to anticipate the actions of the Federal Reserve system’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which sets the course for monetary policy in the United States.”   Given the Fed’s change of policy from easing to tightening I asked Yardeni if he was becoming less bullish.  WEALTHTRACK Episode #1833 broadcast on February 11, 2022 More Info:https://wealthtrack.com/despite-higher-inflation-and-interest-rates-ed-yardeni-makes-the-bullish-case/ Bookshelf: Fed Watching for Fun & Profit: A Primer for Investors https://amzn.to/3BhlQ9i In Praise of Profits! https://amzn.to/3uKvDng Martin Zweig’s Winning on Wall Street https://amzn.to/3uJJvOr

We appear to be in a new investment era, one of higher inflation and higher interest rates. It is a huge change from the “great moderation,” the multi-decade stretch of low inflation and falling interest rates since the early 1980’s. With consumer prices soaring to 40-year highs the Federal Reserve has pivoted from its unusual role as inflation promoter to its traditional role of inflation fighter, which signals higher interest rates ahead. Major macro shifts like these are always turbulent. How to navigate them without damaging your portfolio or psyche is our focus this week. Our guest is well suited to tackle this challenge because of his track record of capital preservation and long-term compounding. Noted global value manager Matthew McLennan has a proven track record of building lasting wealth by investing in resilient investments, including gold. WEALTHTRACK Episode 1832 broadcast on February 04, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/resilient-investments-including-gold-are-matt-mclennans-method-for-building-lasting-wealth/ Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson:  https://amzn.to/3rs2n2B

One of the biggest changes of the past year has been the record number of Americans who are quitting their jobs. It’s so pronounced that it has a name. It’s called “The Great Resignation.”  What The Great Resignation means for retirement planning is just one of the items on Christine Benz’ financial to-do list this year. Another major area of focus is adjusting to much higher inflation. Consumer Prices increased 7% in December versus a year ago, the fastest increase since 1982 and the third month in a row that inflation exceeded 6%.  This elevated rate of inflation presents a big planning challenge.   Benz, who is Morningstar's Director of Personal Finance, is joining us for the fourth year in a row to help us get in financial shape for a new year and will tackle these important changes among others.  WEALTHTRACK #1829 broadcast on January 14, 2022 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/rising-inflation-interest-rates-expensive-markets-call-for-reassessing-retirement-plans/ 30-Minute Money Solutions: A Step-by-Step Guide to Managing Your Finances: https://amzn.to/3FlPtGZ Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success: https://amzn.to/3fmW2i5

Part 2 of 2 Legendary value investor Bill Miller is betting big on bitcoin. The digital currency and some related crypto investments now account for half of his personal investment portfolio. In part two of our interview with Miller, he discusses his rationale for taking such an outsized position, including why he has converted from being a self-described bitcoin “observer” to a bitcoin “bull” and why he is adding to his holdings when the currency has big declines.  Since Miller is also celebrating his 40th anniversary in the investment business we delve into how much the investment landscape has changed and how his value approach has evolved over the last four decades. The conversation is not about Miller Opportunity Trust, it's about his personal portfolio.  I began the interview by asking Miller why he has gone so big on bitcoin.  WEALTHTRACK #1828 broadcast on January 07, 2022 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/investment-legend-bill-miller-has-50-of-his-personal-portfolio-in-bitcoin-related-investments/ Bookshelf:  The Intelligent Investor: https://amzn.to/3F4Dpd6 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator: https://amzn.to/3zy39O1

Great value investor Bill Miller remains the only fund manager to beat the market for 15 consecutive years. He discusses his current core holding winners and some recent promising additions to his legendary portfolio. WEALTHTRACK #1825 broadcast on December 17, 2021

Since WEALTHTRACK’s inception, it’s been an annual tradition to sit down for a rare in-depth interview with Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one-ranked economist for an unrivaled forty-one years. Hyman is a Wall Street legend known for his comprehensive, yet succinct daily bullet point reports on the economy covering multiple data points including his team’s proprietary company surveys covering a wide range of businesses. Last year at this time the U.S. was emerging from lockdowns, vaccines hadn’t been distributed, Covid was resurfacing, fatalities were up but the economy and markets were rebounding sharply. That was not a surprise to Hyman because of the massive amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus pouring into the economy.  As a matter of fact it was the major reason   Hyman predicted on WEALTHTRACK a year ago that 2021 would be a “blow out” year in terms of both economic and corporate earnings growth. How would he describe it in retrospect and what are his economic and market expectations for 2022? Hyman answers those questions and more. WEALTHTRACK #1824 published on December 10, 2021