The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!December's lending data from RBNZ showed a drop in the total value but perhaps not as much as might have been expected given some of the coverage of tightening credit over the last few months. Kelvin gets into some of the detail to help make sense of the real impact of recent changes.There's also plenty of economic data, most of it strong, to review, starting with the 3-decade high inflation figure of 5.9%. Filled jobs also continued to increase - encouraging data in the lead up to Wednesday's Q4 labour market figures, so the only detractor from all this positivity is consumer confidence levels continuing to fall.The CoreLogic HPI is also out on Wednesday with the general theme being a bit of a mixed bag around the country. Finally this week, a thanks to Richard for providing clarification on the anomaly of rental change data discussed last week.This week's '5 things you need to know' is also available on oneroof.co.nz and don't forget to check out the recently published Q4 Property Market and Economic report  - the most comprehensive overview of the state of the NZ property market.Note, next week the podcast will again be out on Tuesday (due to Waitangi weekend) before returning to the usual Monday afternoon release schedule from Feb 14.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The shift to red in the Covid traffic light system brings with it a quick chat about the potential impact to the property market before a look back at the latest data.Stats NZ's rental index is the first release of interest before a detailed look into the latest REINZ house price index which provided even more evidence of market weakness creeping in.Nick and Kelvin then consider what to look for in regards to the border opening and the flow on to inbound and outward migration.Then, a look ahead includes keeping an eye out for the latest CPI (inflation data) and the probable flow through to an OCR increase, consumer confidence, the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) and filled jobs data for December. This week's '5 things you need to know' is also available on oneroof.co.nz and the Q4 Property Market and Economic report will be free to download from Wednesday morning. Note, for the next two weeks the podcast will be out on Tuesdays (navigating holidays and leave) before returning to the usual Monday afternoon release date from Feb 14.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Ngā mihi o te tau hou pakeha (Happy New Year) and welcome to the first podcast for 2022. Nick and Kelvin are back from their respective summer breaks and there's no time to waste, with the lending environment under particular scrutiny. Changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA) are hogging the headlines, but tightening of the LVR limits, bank introduction of debt-to-income limits and increasing interest rates will also be having an impact so Nick and Kelvin provide their take, off the back of all the latest lending and Buyer Classification data.REINZ' release for December data was also hot off the press prior to recording so the guys give their quick take on that prior to Kelvin wrapping the latest economic releases (building consents and filled jobs).The major thing to watch for this week is the Stats NZ rental index but everyone seems to have hit the ground running so there are plenty of other releases to be aware of. As mentioned here's Kelvin's now regular '5 things to know' about property this week.Note, for the next three weeks the podcast will be out on Tuesdays (navigating holidays and leave) before returning to the usual Monday afternoon release date from Feb 14.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In the last podcast for the year, Nick and Kelvin round out all the latest data releases, including the CoreLogic Buyer Classification data for November and Stats NZ's rental index, which provide the discussion points for first home buyer and property investor activity.Kelvin also gives his take on the big economic data which was out last week, in particular the expectedly weak GDP figures for Q3, which are then tempered by the more recent NZ Activity Index data for October and November.Then it's just a final wrap for the year, including mention of the recent webinar "2022 housing market: slowdown or slump?" and regular monthly video.Have a safe and happy holidays, we'll be back on 17 Jan 2022!Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With no major data releases in the last week, Nick and Kelvin take the opportunity to do a mini-review of 2021 and look ahead to 2022. This is timed nicely with a few other CoreLogic pieces doing the same.The Best of the Best report will be public on Tuesday 14 Dec and covers a look back at how the country performed in the last 12 months at a suburb level, using a range of different measures, including median value change, median days on market and median yield.Then on Tuesday 14 December Nick and Kelvin are hosting a live webinar, where they'll run through in greater detail the key housing market factors of 2021 consider what's in store for next year. The webinar is free to attend, with anyone able to register here. Listings has been a key recent topic and was the focus of Kelvin's article last week. And his historical recount of the last decade which featured in the OneRoof Property report is well worth a look too.There's plenty to look forward to in the unofficial final week of the year too. We'll be back next Monday to round it all up before a three week break over the summer holidays.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nzSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After a quick acknowledgement of Kelvin's Birthday and the incredible achievement of Ajaz Patel for the BlackCaps Nick and Kelvin chat about the latest CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) release which, other than the usual focus on change in property values, looking deeper into the listings situation across the country.Then, a review of the latest filled jobs data (positive) and ANZ Business Confidence results (less-positive) leads to a broader discussion on the state of the economy heading into 2022, including how businesses might fare as all the Government support ends.Continued strength in dwelling consent figures brings the construction industry into scope once again, with yet another reminder about capacity constraints and net competitions being of particular interest.To round things out this Stuff article and the CoreLogic data used for it brings change in land prices to the fore, and with it the insight that unitary plans have probably had in slowing land price growth.And if you want to read the interview with Nick for Newshub's "Me and My Monday" series, go here.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Yet again the Reserve Bank is front and centre with a number of releases to chew over. In the last week they released their Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which always includes an Official Cash Rate (OCR) review as well as the October lending breakdown and they officially commenced consultation on the potential introduction of debt-to-income (DTI) caps.The OCR was increased by 0.25% - probably the cautious option, but as Kelvin discusses it's all about the forecasts and what happens next.  From a DTI perspective, the key is probably the Reserve Bank's relaxed nature around there being no rush to implement anything. Nonetheless Kelvin has pored over the document to give his take on other points of interest.To close out the RBNZ section this week, a review of October lending data further solidifies the likelihood of a last hurrah for first home buyers, before high LVR limits were officially tightened on 1 November.Other brief topics of interest are consumer confidence results (weakening) and upcoming CoreLogic house price index results, business confidence, filled jobs and building consents data (which Nick takes the opportunity from, to remind listeners that not all consents go through to completion).Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After running through the two big CoreLogic releases from last week (CCCI report and Pain & Gain report), Nick and Kelvin delve into the newly released debt-to-income (DTI) data from RBNZ.The data helps shape the discussion around the potential impact of the as-yet-unconfirmed caps that may apply, and plenty of investors will be affected. There's also insight direct from the market (thanks Alex Toohey from Vega) that some banks are already applying their own version of the DTI limits so the expected slowdown may be more pronounced and happen sooner than otherwise expected. And perhaps it's the mood being affected by the underwhelming All Blacks' performances but news of tightened loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions impacting pre-approvals leads to a slightly more pessimistic outlook than previous.Finally, a look ahead to the Banks' OCR review this week and discussion around the health of the economy and business sector provides a pretty comprehensive overview of where things are at.And don't forget to go check out this month's 5 minute video summary on youtube.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Off the back of the release of the CoreLogic First Home Buyer report for Q3, Nick and Kelvin discuss the factors leading to their record share and then consider how things might play out in coming quarters, given tightening credit conditions. Rising rents are inherently intertwined in the state of the first home buyer market, so we've been paying close attention to the Rental Index from Stats NZ. October figures weren't as strong as September but the annual rate of growth is still very topical.REINZ October release also provided interesting results - with further evidence of a potential turning point, below the headline strength.Kelvin then kicks off a discussion on the health of businesses, analysing the ANZ Business Confidence data, as the economy very tentatively starts to open up a bit more.Rounding out the pod, Kelvin plugs the (now-released) CCCI Report (formerly CHIP) providing yet more evidence of further growth in construction costs, and RBNZ lending data on DTIs out later today (Monday).Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Nick and Kelvin firstly review the Corelogic House Price Index data for October before getting into the detail of the few RBNZ releases last week.Firstly the Governor gave a speech to the Property Council, which was released to the market, alongside a paper investigating the measures of house price sustainability. There's plenty to digest, especially when you add in the RBNZ Financial Stability Report, which was released the following day. Nick and Kelvin consider the RBNZ's take on everything from the RB's role in the recent growth phase, the plan to introduce debt-to-income limits and the robustness of the banking and business sectors in the face of increasing discussions about vulnerabilities in our economy and property market.There was also strong labour market data and building consents data released last week, and Nick gives an update on where agent appraisals are at, following the Labour Weekend holiday.And look out for the CoreLogic First Home Buyer Report, out first thing Tuesday.Check out all our regular CoreLogic research insights at https://www.corelogic.co.nz/research-news and get in touch on LinkedIn, twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL or send us an email on nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@cotality.com or kelvin.davidson@cotality.com