The Grant Williams Podcast

In the latest episode of The End Game, Fleck and I welcome back Harley Bassman—aka the ‘Convexity Maven’—for a deep dive into the shifting landscape of global bond markets, inflation, and the future of the US dollar. Harley contends that while US bond yields have risen sharply in recent years, they are now approaching fair value when measured against historical spreads and nominal GDP. The real challenge, he argues, lies in the rapid adjustment after decades of suppressed rates, and in how markets adapt to this new reality. Our discussion explores the profound impact of demographic trends, such as the early retirement of baby boomers and delayed household formation among millennials, as well as the often-underappreciated role of immigration in sustaining US economic growth. We also examine the risks associated with persistent fiscal deficits and mounting debt, as the potential erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status presents a problem with potentially far-reaching consequences. Despite the scale of these challenges, Harley remains sanguine, suggesting that the system’s imbalances are more like slow-moving trains than imminent crashes. But, with heightened volatility and policy uncertainty likely to persist, diversified portfolios—including gold and inflation hedges—are prudent responses. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I talk with with cybersecurity expert and author Dmitri Alperovitch to discuss his book, ‘World on the Brink,’ and the escalating risk of conflict between China and Taiwan. Dmitri, who forecast Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, draws striking parallels between Vladimir Putin’s motivations and those now driving Xi Jinping’s ambitions toward Taiwan, identifying five recurring factors—distorted historical narratives, belief in national destiny, security imperatives, personal ego, and the urgency of aging leaders—that are converging once again, this time in East Asia. The conversation examines concrete evidence of China’s preparations for a potential invasion, from military training sites in Inner Mongolia replicating Taipei’s streets, to sophisticated cyber campaigns targeting US infrastructure, and the construction of landing craft engineered for amphibious assaults and Dmitri argues that Taiwan’s significance extends well beyond its semiconductor industry; control of the island would enable China to project power across the Pacific, fundamentally altering the regional balance and eroding U.S. influence. Dmitri calls for urgent strategic measures, including decoupling from China in critical technologies and forming a new economic alliance—TAME (Treaty of Allied Market Economies)—to help smaller nations withstand Chinese pressure, and he contends that Western responses to China are not provocations, but long-overdue reactions to years of aggression and intellectual property theft. With a potential invasion window between 2028 and 2032, the discussion underscores the need for robust deterrence, stronger alliances, and strategic competition to preserve stability in the region. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Charles Calomiris, an economist and emeritus professor with a rich background in academia and finance, joins to discuss America's fiscal future. He warns of the looming threat of fiscal dominance, where unsustainable debt forces inflationary policies. The conversation dives into the moral and societal roots of the financial crisis, emphasizing the decline of civic responsibility. Calomiris also reflects on the potential for transformative leadership in crises, advocating for a renewed sense of purpose and integrity in confronting economic challenges.

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of Elm Wealth, for a conversation that spans revolution, crisis, and hard-earned wisdom. From seeing his family lose nearly everything during the Iranian revolution, to his high-stakes years at Salomon Brothers and as a founding partner of the infamous Long-Term Capital Management, Victor’s journey is nothing short of extraordinary. After stepping back from markets for over a decade following LTCM’s collapse, he returned with a mission: to help investors avoid the pitfalls he’d seen firsthand. We discuss the crucial—and often overlooked—importance of position sizing, the seductive danger of private equity pitches, and why too many wealthy investors are flying blind. Victor shares the principles behind his “eyes open” investing philosophy and explains why sticking to low-cost, diversified, logic-based strategies may be the most underrated path to long-term success. This is a conversation packed with insight, humility, and lessons that only experience can teach. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Dr. Pippa Malmgren, an economist and former advisor, delves into the collapse of shared narratives in American society and the accompanying political polarization. She highlights the urgent need for empathy and dialogue, calling for a ‘Copernican shift’ in our understanding. Pippa also explores the implications of recent UAP disclosures, discussing institutional opacity and societal trust in governance. The conversation underscores the necessity of navigating information overload with compassion and critical inquiry, while encouraging open-mindedness in discussions.”} 🪐 ️🗣️ ✨ 🛸 📉 🎙️ 📚 ️🤔 🌏 ⏳ 📈 🎤 💬 ✍️ 📖 🌐 🚀 🎇 👥 🍃 🕊️ 🌊 🌌 ✨ 🌏 🌟 🌈 🔍 🌠 ️✨ 🌅 🌈 🌌 🌈 🎶 🎵 🌍 🪐 🧠 📘 🤝 🌈 🦚 📚 🌳 🌤️

Warren Pies, a research analyst at 3Fourteen Research, dives deep into the complexities of today’s market, defined by policy shocks and volatility. He emphasizes the importance of data-driven analysis, particularly around the impact of political decisions like Trump-era tariffs. Warren discusses the fragile relationship between bonds and equities and the evolving role of the U.S. dollar in a turbulent landscape. He offers insights on navigating investment opportunities while addressing risks, portraying the U.S. as the ‘cleanest dirty shirt’ amid global uncertainty.

Russell Napier, a distinguished financial historian and investment strategist, joins the discussion to unravel significant structural imbalances affecting the global economy. He shares insights on the implications of financial repression and national capitalism. Napier emphasizes the shifting power dynamics influenced by China and the pressing need for new investment strategies. Highlighting challenges like wealth inequality and geopolitical shifts, he advocates for proactive adaptation and flexibility in wealth preservation amidst market volatility and changing global alliances.

Neil Howe, co-author of The Fourth Turning, dives into generational theory and its impact on today’s chaotic landscape. He discusses the concept of the 'fourth turning' and how it shapes societal norms, including rising partisanship and cultural shifts in religion and gender. Howe contrasts leadership styles of FDR and Trump, explores America’s path to self-sufficiency, and examines the resurgence of spirituality among youth. With a focus on historical cycles, he offers insights into navigating the complexities of our current global tensions.

Tian Yang, a data-driven analyst from Variant Perception, joins the conversation to unpack the complex forces reshaping the global economy. He discusses the unintended impacts of Trump’s tariffs and highlights China's surprising resilience amid geopolitical tensions. The dialogue dives into the divide in policymaking philosophies between major economies, revealing fresh investment opportunities. Tian also addresses Europe's financial constraints and the potential risks of US financial repression while hinting at the start of a CapEx-driven supercycle.

Lynne Bryan Phipps, an ordained minister, architect, and psychologist, founded Beachwood Centre to provide Integrative Equine Therapy for trauma and stress-related issues. In this captivating discussion, they explore how horses facilitate emotional healing and foster connections. Lynne shares how personal experiences shaped her journey from architecture to therapy, emphasizing the transformational power of equine interactions. The conversation highlights the importance of community support for mental health initiatives, encouraging listeners to contribute to this vital cause.