Robert Wright's Nonzero

A quick update from Robert Wright. ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Mickey doubles down on performance enhancing drugs ... Is the NY19 result a red flag for a midterm “red wave”? ... Has the Mar-a-Lago bombshell already fizzled? ... Bob gets tribal about Mickey’s anti-tribalism tweet ... Ukraine war update ... The electric vehicle takeover in California ... Brian Stelter’s ouster and CNN’s future direction ... Parrot Room preview: Dugin’s daughter whodunnit, is it actually time to start worrying about AI?, Biden admin cynicism on Ukraine, another tally in the Epstein case body count, China’s quantum computing prowess, could economic troubles spur Chinese aggression?, Twitter-Facebook censorship, more Beatles doc talk ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

What is the restrainer coalition and how cohesive is it really? ... Justin: Realism opposes forever wars -- but holds that war is forever ... The challenge Russia-Ukraine poses to the restrainer community ... How the US should respond to the China-Taiwan crisis ... Does the rise of China threaten American security? ... Bob: Taking adversaries’ perspectives doesn’t equal justifying their behavior ... Can the US deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan forever? ... Should the US make Taiwan a pricklier porcupine or China a more satisfied panda? ... Quincy represents restraint, but CATO was restraint-minded before it was cool ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Mickey and Dr. Oz enjoy crudités—Bob and Fetterman, not so much ... The state of the Oz versus Fetterman race ... Will Liz Cheney run for president – and for which party? ... Was the FBI raid on Trump really worth it? ... Mickey sees Jay Leno at supermarket, plays it cool ... Inflation slowing and Democrats’ fortunes rising? ... The sense in which the Salman Rushdie stabbing isn’t about religion ... Ukraine war update ... Parrot Room preview: Mickey’s friend’s empathy epiphany, ridiculous piece on Peter Thiel, America’s government-media complex, Huffington Post versus Buzzfeed, Bob on the Beatles documentary, Dexter Filkins on Ron DeSantis, Bob’s beef with new Washington Post piece, Muhammad and the Satanic verses, Mickey’s dark horse presidential candidate, anti-Soros news, Larry Summers talks to Bari Weiss ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Does the “restrainer community” actually exist? ... Has the Ukraine war fractured the restrainer community? ... How should a restrainer respond to Putin’s invasion? ... How war-time psychology impairs objective analysis ... Unpacking the differences between left-wing and right-wing restrainers ... Is realism essential to the pro-restraint worldview—or just its conservative variant? ... Some dubious characters Biden takes advice from ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Forecasting Trump raid fallout ... Could the Dems bring back “Build Back Better”? ... Bob and Mickey compare blue-collar bona fides ... Scoring Biden's recent PR wins and losses ... What's scarier: social media, the FBI, or your Roomba? ... Ukraine war update ... Bob: How ‘defending’ Taiwan could get it invaded ... Parrot Room Preview: The Blobsters advising the White House, yet more Jonah Goldberg trash-talk, Mickey’s car-buying blues, Bob’s rave CRV road-trip review, where in the world is Ghislaine Maxwell?, Mickey’s meritocracy conundrum, AI takeover, Saudi golf tour talk, Bob shorts "longtermism" ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Remembering the halcyon days of early Bloggingheads ... Jonah: Our institutions have become platforms for parasites ... Censorship and polarization in the social media age ... What Mickey cribbed from Jonah to jumpstart his blogging career ... How Twitter killed the blogging star ... Is Substack blogging reborn? ... What’s the matter with the modern left? Jonah diagnoses ... A Trump-Biden rematch and other depressing symptoms of polarization ... Is devotion to an institution a sucker bet? ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Rip Van Kaus awakens to a frightening new reality ... Bob and Mickey scan the dial for better Christian music ... Did the Taliban sell out Ayman al-Zawahiri? ... Bob: Weapons sent to Ukraine will end up in US extremists’ hands ... Why did Nancy Pelosi go to Taiwan? ... If Trump had been reelected, would Putin have invaded Ukraine? ... Ukraine War update ... Are pro-choice Kansas voters also pro-Democrat? ... Mickey: My fears about Democratic midterm gains look more and more realistic ... Joe Manchin zags his way into supporting BBB ... Biden manages to avoid stagflation (for now) ... Parrot Room preview: Joe Rogan, Alex Jones, Brittney Griner, Monkeypox, Jonah Goldberg, the (possible) fascism of JD Vance and Blake Masters, Mickey’s beef with Chris Murphy, Mikey’s defense of mansplaining, the end of social media, a small wrinkle in the midterms, Obnoxious Use of the Word “Agency” of the Week, the third party question, John Fetterman, and the LIV Tour antitrust suit ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Tom: Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan imperils the defense of Ukraine ... Unpacking the Russia-Ukraine/China-Taiwan analogy ... Tom’s critique of Bob’s argument on Russia-Ukraine ... The dangers of humiliating and alienating China ... Does Biden have a plan for winding down the war in Ukraine – and does Putin? ... China could push Russia to end the war – so why is Pelosi poking the panda? ... Why cooperation with China is in America’s national interest ... Tom’s scoop on Zelensky’s worsening reputation in the White House ... Why Tom thinks a diplomatic resolution should come sooner rather than later ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

Rajan walks through three ways the war could end ... Assessing Ukraine’s and Russia’s military aims ... The causes and consequences of Ukraine’s optimism ... What might weaken Ukrainian and western resolve? ... How America’s toxic political discourse prolongs the war ... Does Biden have a plan? ... Do we understand Putin’s motivation ... Will Putin accept anything short of taking the entire Donbas? ... This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe