Political forecaster Logan Phillips had the 2022 election cycle's most accurate projections. His website, RacetotheWH.com, hosts all of his models - including his recently-released 2024 White House and Senate polling trackers. In this discussion, Logan talks his time as an Obama White House intern, his path to political modeling, recapping his hyper-accurate 2022 models that came within 1 seat of anticipating the GOP's 222-213 House majority, and gives a nuts-and-bolts Modeling 101 tutorial of what goes into forecasting and how he thinks about the field.IN THIS EPISODELogan’s stint as a White House intern for President Obama…How Logan gravitated to the field of political modeling…Logan breaks down what goes into a political model…Logan compares his approach to 538…Logan talks lessons learned during the 2020 elections…Logan breaks down how his model fared in 2022…Logan talks the differences between forecasting Democratic versus Republican primaries…Logan’s take on whether Republican polling intentionally “flooded the zone” to influence political modeling…Logan’s big surprises of 2022…Logan talks the DeSantis factor in Florida…Logan’s initial thoughts on modeling the 2024 Presidential, both Biden vs. Trump and Biden vs. DeSantis… AND American Institute of Architects, David Axelrod, Charlie Baker, Mandela Barnes, Joe Biden, Lauren Boebert, George HW Bush, butterfly effects, Hillary Clinton, Susan Collins, Dwight Eisenhower, Election Twitter, Emerson Polling, Excel, Adam Frisch, Google trends, Kathy Hochul, hope and change, impostor syndrome, Laksyha Jain, January 6th, Karine Jean-Pierre, Ron Johnson, Marcy Kaptur, John Kasich, Brian Kemp, Kari Lake, Al Lawson, lower-priority initiations, JR Majewski, Doug Mastriano, Cecilia Nunez, Dr. Oz, David Perdue, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, QAnon, Rasmussen, Ronald Reagan, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Tim Ryan, Larry Sabato, Nate Silver, Split Ticket, Adlai Stevenson, Trafalgar Polling, Harry Truman, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Wikipedia & more!

Zee Cohen-Sanchez came to politics from an unconventional background…growing up in Australia as the child of “atheist, socialist American Jews”. Back in the United States she took her passion for social justice to work in the labor movement, for Bernie Sanders in 2016, and AOC’s upset primary win in 2018. In this conversation, Zee talks these early formative experiences and how they led her to start Sole Strategies as a firm that helps insurgent candidates – especially first-time candidates and women of color. Great conversation about how the small nuts-and-bolts of politics can fuel big social change. IN THIS EPISODE…The activist movement that led Zee to an interest in progressive politics…Zee’s time growing up in Australia and working in Australian politics…Zee’s initial connection to Senator Bernie Sanders…Zee works on AOC’s insurgent 2018 primary win…Zee starts Sole Strategies in 2020…Zee gives her definition of “no-good consultants”…Some of the big wins of Sole Strategies…Zee on her transition from labor activist to owning and running her own business…Zee’s 101 for first-time candidates…Zee talks why the AOC model of political success is almost impossible to replicate…Zee recalls getting grief from left-wing activists for her work in Democratic primaries…Zee talks “learning to assert herself” as a woman working in politics…Zee’s thoughts on how “branding” works in politics…The best career advice Zee ever received…AND 1984 RVs, Joe Biden, Charles Booker, Boulder City, CUNY, Dan Carlino, Shirley Chisolm, Joe Crowley, DSA, East Harlem for Bernie, election lawyers, Mike Esposito, explaining experience, John Fetterman, firm handshakes, the Flux Party, Lori Gonzalez, grad school misery, the Green Party, The Heights, John Howard, impossible races, Innocence Project, Gale Kaufman, Rodney King, leading the room, longshots, mandatory voting, mini-Americas, New South Wales, Barack Obama, Occupy Wall Street, Planned Parenthood, ranked choice voting, shoestring budgets, Staten Island, The Sunrise Movement, Tasmania, Torrance CA, Donald Trump, volume games, Wagner College, Amani Wells-Onyioha, What’s The Matter with Kansas, Mark Zuckerberg & more!

Marshall Cohen is the Political Director of the Democratic Governors Association. Over 7 years at the DGA, he's been involved in 50+ races - and before that was an accomplished operative who - in 2016 - managed (and won) the most expensive congressional primary in history. In this conversation, Marshall talks his path to working in politics, his best practices for running and winning races and goes deep on this cycle's top governor's races...how Democrats pulled off upsets in several states, the messaging and strategic decisions that mattered, and lessons learned heading into the 2024 cycle. IN THIS EPISODEMarshall’s path to working in politics…How his New Jersey roots inform his political outlook…Marshall manages the winner in a 2016 House primary that was the most expensive congressional race in history at the time…Marshall breaks down the four factors it takes to be an effective campaign manager…How Marshall starts at the DGA & his theories of what makes governors’ races different…Marshall talks how he and the DGA have been successful winning in “red” states…Marshall talks the Virginia ’21 Governors race…how Youngkin won and why that didn’t signal a trend for ’22…Marshall rebuts the suggestion the DGA “meddled” in GOP primaries to elevate election-deniers…Marshall & Zac talk the 2022 Nevada Governor’s race…The “biggest surprise” for Marshall from the 2022 cycle…Marshall goes deep on several 2022 races, including Arizon, Kansas, and Wisconsin...Marshall talks Democratic difficulties breaking through in FL, GA, and TX…Marshall on lessons learned in 2022 that can be applied to the 2024 cycle…The media spending strategies that worked for the DGA in 2022…Marshall on the various “it factors” held by governors…AND American University, Lou Barletta, Andy Beshear, Matt Bevin, Sam Brownback, James Carville, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Roy Cooper, core competencies, Dan Cox, Shelbi Dantic, dead ducks, Ron DeSantis, the Dobbs decision, Doug Ducey, John Bel Edwards, Tony Evers, footsie, GW, Maura Healey, Katie Hobbs, Larry Hogan, Bobby Jindal, Doug Jones, Laura Kelly, Tina Kotek, Kari Lake, Joe Lombardo, Doug Mastriano, Kathleen Matthews, Pat McCrory, Tim Michels, Janet Mills, Wes Moore, Phil Murphy, north stars,  Beto O’Rourke, Panasonic, Corey Platt, political fiefdoms, Jamie Raskin, Derek Schmitt, self-realizations, Steve Sisolak, train conductors, David Trone, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Tim Walz, The West Wing, Gretchen Whitmer, wine tasting, the Yuma County GOP & more!

Brendan McPhillips was the campaign manager for John Fetterman's general election campaign, helping guide it to a win over Dr. Oz in the cycle's most chaotic and closey watched Senate race. In this conversation, Brendan talks his path to politics that started in a community college in conservative Southern California and includes running Iowa for Buttigieg in the 2020 primaries and working as Biden PA State Director in the general election. And, of course, we go deep on Brendan's time with Fetterman...from meeting him over a decade ago, running his '16 Senate race, taking the helm of Fetterman 2022 this spring...the candidates, the stroke, the message, the attacks, the debate, and the win. IN THIS EPISODE…Brendan’s path from conservative Southern California to working in Democratic politics…Brendan runs Iowa for Pete Buttigieg in the 2020 primaries…Brendan crosses paths with John Fetterman over a decade ago…The Brendan McPhillips 101 on how to run a race in Pennsylvania…Brendan’s take on the Fetterman dominant primary win…Brendan takes the helm as manager on the heels of the primary win & health scare…Brendan breaks down the case the campaign made against Dr. Oz…How the campaign beat back the “soft on crime” attack…Brendan weighs in on the Mastriano Effect on the Senate race…Brendan takes aim at grifting Democratic Scam PACs…Deep inside the Fetterman vs Oz debate…Brendan’s expectations heading into Election Day…and his analysis of the 5-point Fetterman win…Brendan’s take on Pennsylvania’s status as a swing state heading into 2024…Lessons other campaigns can learn from the Fetterman win…AND Amtrak tours, annoying naysayers, Val Arkoosh, Tony Baker, Joe Biden, Bob & Barbara’s, George W. Bush, carbon copies, James Carville, Bob Casey, Dave Chase, crazy kitchen cabinets, dive bars, gas bills, GED classes, Andrew Gillum, Lindsay Graham, grocery clerks, HQ Analytics, Ben Halle, hard-ass bouncers, hucksters, Bill Hyers, interesting dudes, Iowa steak frys, Johnstown, Rebecca Katz, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, media buyers from DC, mega churches, Middle Seat, the New Jersey State Hall of Fame, Notre Dame, Barack Obama, old adages, off-track betting, phone trees, Ed Rendell, resident gofers, Mike Schmuhl, Rick Scott, Josh Shapiro, The Situation, Snookie, special sauce, South Bend, the Susquehanna, Temecula, thrilling the DCCC, the Turf Club, UFCW, VFW halls, weirdos, wild rides...& more!

Tim Persico, the Executive Director of the DCCC, provides a post-election debrief with his thoughts on all things 2022 House races. He gets under the hood as to how House Democrats beat the odds to exceed pundit expectations...and weighs in on the winning blend of messaging for candidates, the leadership provided by Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney and Speaker Pelosi, specific seats that helped Democrats buck the midterm trends, the tools and tactics the DCCC utlized this cycle, & much more with one of the key architects of House Democrats' impressive 2022 cycle.IN THIS EPISODE…The latest post-election math about control of the House…How previous DCCC post-mortems helped prep Tim run the organization…Tim’s macro view of how House Democrats overperformed expectations…Tim recounts the critical decision by DCCC Chair Maloney to take a risk and go for the majority instead of taking a more cautious approach to hold losses to a minimum…Tim’s take on whether Democrats won these races late or always had the advantage….Tim on what messaging worked well for Democratic candidates…Tim talks leadership lessons learned from Nancy Pelosi…A few seats Tim was confident Dems could win despite pundit skepticism…Tim’s initial thoughts on why New York was a tough state for House Dems…The DCCC’s approach to digital communications…Lessons learned from digesting hundreds of internal campaign polls…How Tim handled getting advice from a 220+ member Democratic Caucus…Tim evangelizes on why a finance background is a good path to rising up the ladder in politics…Tim compliments some of the strategies utilized by the NRCC…What Tim is most proud of from this cycle running the DCCC…AND American treasures, asymmetrical disadvantages, Michael Bennet, big thinking thoughts, building runways, Cheri Bustos, canaries in coal mines, Yadira Caraveo, cookie-cutter stuff, Karen Defilippi, Dirtbags, Isaac Fitzgerald, fully-formed human beings, Tommy Garcia, graybeards, the Hudson Valley, hybrid ads, late movers, left-handed Methodists, Elaine Luria, massive things, moon suits, Patrick Murphy, Wiley Nickel, noisy data, non-linear benefits, pet peeves, pipe bombs, a Pittsburgh Republican, pivot points, pre post-mortems, Christie Roberts, Chuck Schumer, sheer chaos, Eric Sorensen, sour electorates, Abigail Spanberger, special masters, Emilia Sykes, Tony Vargas, walkabouts, Jennifer Wextons, whisper quiet & more!

It's Election Day 2022...so instead of more predictions and punditry, Rebecca Pearcey is back to dive into what political consultants talk about most amongst ourselves...travel tips, hacks, and preferences. In this conversation, Rebecca and I discuss and debate best practices for aiports, flights, hotels, taxis, and all things being a political operative on the road. Hopefully this episode can be an enjoyable 51-minute escape during your Election Day (or aftermath) while waiting for votes to be cast and results to come in.Rebecca talks her intense travel experiences with Elizabeth Warren on the '20 campaign trail...A stark disagreement on how early to get to the airport before a flight...Butting heads on when it makes sense to check a bag for a flight...Aisle or window? How to choose your seat on the plane?During the flight...work on the plane? Sleep? Watch a movie?Rebecca's strong take on airline wifi...How loyal should you be to the big airline and hotel brands?Airport lounges: worth it or not?Zac on an underappreciated in-flight beverage...Best transportation to and from the airport...What should go into choosing a hotel?Agreement on a new option that should exist in hotel apps...Two very different perspectives on rental cars...Pearcey on packing...Pre-check and/or Clear: worthwhile or not?Zac's restaurant recommendation / attempt to get a sponsorship from a national chain...Rebecca and Zac give off-the-beaten-path travel destinations...

Maggie Haberman is, of course, the Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter who's covered the political rise of Donald Trump for the New York Times...and her new book, CONFIDENCE MAN: The Making of Donald Trump & The Breaking of America became an immediate best seller. In this conversation, Maggie dives into all things Trump...from his formative influences in the New York City of the 70s and 80s, to his political ascent, time in the White House, her take on the likelihood of another Trump run, what a Trump White House restoration would look like...and much more from perhaps the most authoritative voice on the Trump political phenomenon. IN THIS EPISODE…Maggie breaks down the influences that explain Trump’s political persona…The member of Congress with whom has had a decades-long feud…Maggie talks Trump’s ethos of “hate as a civic good”…Why Trump never wanted to be Mayor of New York City…Maggie talks the rise of Trump as a credible candidate in 2015…How Trump leveraged Twitter so successfully…Maggie on the connection between Trump and the National Enquirer…How Trump has recently lost allies among the conservative media…Why Trump as the “deal maker” fell flat in the White House…Maggie’s thoughts on Trump’s various legal entanglements, old and new…How Maggie thinks about the challenge of covering candidates who lie…Maggie’s instincts on a Trump 2024 campaign…The faces Maggie would expect to see around Trump in a second term…What it’s like to have 1-on-1 conversations with Trump…What’s surprised Maggie most about Trump’s behavior over the past year…The status of Trump relationships with names like Giuliani, McConnell, Bannon, Roger Stone...Some of Maggies favorite books and authors covering NYC politics...AND avenging angels, Bill Barr, Wayne Barrett, birtherism, Mike Bloomberg, E. Jean Carroll, catch-and-kill, the Central Park Jogger, Hillary Clinton, Michael Cohen, Roy Cohn, James Comey, conspiracy theories, convention speeches, covfefe, Andrew Cuomo, Mario Cuomo, Ron DeSantis, the Dobbs decisions, Meade Esposito,  the favor economy, Fox News, Stanley Friedman, Ric Grenell, Sean Hannity, instinctive racial paranoia, Andrew Kirtzman, Ed Koch, Jared Kushner, the Lavender Scare, Rush Limbaugh, low-interest federal loans, Donald Manes, John McCain, McCarthy acolytes, Mark Meadows, Andrew Meier, Robert Morgenthau, Rupert Murdoch, Muslim bans, Jack Newfield, NewsMax, Richard Nixon, OAN, George Pataki, Kash Patel, David Pecker, permanent enemies, Jeanine Pirro, Vladimir Putin, John Ratcliffe, rejecting objective reality, Seth Rich, rubber chicken dinners, Eric Schneiderman, Doug Schoen, Time Magazine, transactional media, Allen Weisselberg, white noise…. & more!

Nobody has a political career like JC Watts. Starting quarterback at the University of Oklahoma, NFL draft pick, several years in the Canadian Football League, the first Black statewide elected official in Oklahoma, 8 years in Congress rising to Conference Chair in the GOP leadership, and voluntarily leaving office with even greater political stardom likely in front of him. In this conversation, he talks his one-of-kind-story of a blue-collar kid from small town Eufala, OK to a high level pro athlete to a groundbreaking political figure - with one of the most unique perspectives in American politics. IN THIS EPISODEJC Watts' upbringing in rural Eufala, OK..The formative experience of playing football at the University of Oklahoma…The political roots of the Watts family…What leads him to run for office shortly after his football career ends…Lessons learned from his iconic coach Barry Switzer…Memories from early days in the House after his 1994 election…Congressman Watts talks what he learned about Native culture over the years…Inside the story of delivering the 1997 GOP Response to the State of the Union…Congressman Watts ousts John Boehner from the House GOP leadership after the ’98 elections…Inside the strategic and messaging disagreements among the GOP leadership…Congressman Watts talks the intoxicating “cheer of the crowd” present in politics…The two times he most seriously considered running for office after he left the House…The letter Rosa Parks wrote to Congressman Watts…Why he left the House after 8 years…The longtime political relationship between Congressman Watts and his successor Tom Cole…Congressman Watts talks being both a Black man and a strong Republican…His thoughts on the state of the Trump-led Republican Party of 2022…The current projects that he’s most excited about…AND Arkansas things, bellyachers, Sonny Bono, bootleggers, David Boren, the CFL, Julia Carson, cesspools and jacuzzis, Chattanooga, Dick Cheney, Donna Christensen, Bill Clinton, Tom Coburn, the Contract with America, the Creek Nation, Danny Davis, Tom Delay, disgruntled Democrats, dysfunctional conferences, economics 101, enterprise zones, FCA, Floyd Flake, George Floyd, Harold Ford Jr., Newt Gingrich, HBCUs, Denny Hastert, huge assignments, Jim Inhofe, Jesse Jackson, January 6th, Jack Kemp, knuckleheads, Langston University, lapel pins, Steve Largent, live bodies, Bob Livingston, Longhorn friends, Dave McCurdy, the NAACP, Don Nickles, opportunity zones, Ottawa, Pee Wee leagues, pow wows, private equity funds, pulpit experience, reading the blitz, redshirts, special sauce, The Selmon Brothers, the Sixth Sense, snowball effects, speechwriters, Mike Synar, Toronto, the United Nations, the Urban League, the USA Today, youth ministers, Zach Wamp & more!

Wesley Donehue has an unconventional background for a Republican consultant…growing up in public housing with two parents who struggled with drug addiction…but that upbringing fueled his passion to work in politics and his interest in crisis communications. In this conversation, we talk Wesley’s path to politics, his work as a digital consultant for big GOP names like Lindsay Graham, Marco Rubio, Herschel Walker, and many more – and his recent book Under Fire, which lays out his 13 rules for how candidates, campaigns, and organization should handle crisis.IN THIS EPISODE…How failing a college class leads Wesley to a career in politics…How Wesley gravitated to an expertise in digital politics…Wesley talks best practices for digital politics…Wesley talks about the role that digital played on Lindsay Graham’s $100M 2020 Senate re-election…Wesley on how anti-Trump candidates have gotten back into the good graces of Trump voters…Wesley on the best campaign managers he’s worked with…Wesley talks how his chaotic upbringing led him to the field of crisis communications…What led Wesley to write Under Fire, his new book on dealing with crisis and cancel culture…Wesley talks the most importance of his 13 rules to deal with crisis…Wesley cites a politician who handled crisis especially poorly…Wesley’s analysis of how Donald Trump handles crisis…Wesley on kitchen cabinets, preparation, and the question of apologies…Wesley touches on the recent crisis surrounding his firm’s client Herschel Walker…Wesley recounts when he personally faced an effort to “cancel” him…Wesley talks his habits that have helped him develop an energetic work ethic…Wesley’s recommendations when visiting his hometown of Charleston, SC…AND 1-star reviews, BLM, Calculus II, cold-and-flu season, cord cutters, Jim DeMint, Dow Chemical, earthquake plans, engineering majors, Ferraris, the gap and the gain, David Goggins, Trey Gowdy, Instagram, Ironman marathons, the King of Pop, the MCU, Pabst Blue Ribbon, pounds of flesh, Push digital, Joe Rogan, Mark Sanford, the scraps, Section 8 Housing, soul mates, stoicism, thin skin, Star Trek, U of South Carolina, Phil Vangelakos, vulnerability studies, yachts & more!

Julie Roginsky has one of the most unique stories in politics…as a 6-year old, she and her family flee their homeland in the Soviet Union to make their way to the Bronx…she’s drawn to campaigns and spends 20+ years in the trenches in New Jersey politics…she enters the world of cable news, working for 10 years as a Democratic voice on Fox News…ultimately leaving Fox after suing the network and chief Roger Ailes for sexual harassment…and starts Lift Our Voices with former Fox News colleague Gretchen Carlson to eliminate NDAs and other silencing mechanism that protect harassment in the workplace. This is a wide-ranging conversation that covers Julie’s fascinating life, time in campaign politics, and the important work she’s doing now.IN THIS EPISODE…The story behind Julie and her parents escaping their native USSR…Early memories of a 6-year old Soviet refugee growing up in NYC…Julie campaigns for a presidential candidate as an 11-year old…Julie changes her professional sights from foreign service to political campaigns…Julie’s brief excursion working for the UK Labour Party in London…Julie’s first New Jersey race and her NJ Politics 101 after 20+ years in state politics…Julie mines her years as a communications expert to offer some comms best practices…The story behind Julie’s years as a political commentator on Fox News…Julie addresses her departure from Fox News & the sexual harassment she filed against  Fox News and Roger Ailes…Julie starts Lift Our Voices with Gretchen Carlson to eliminate workplace NDAs that protect workplace harassment…Julie on the changing advice she gives to young people working in politics…Julie’s advice on how campaigns can protect proprietary information while not enabling a toxic workplace...AND…the 6 Train, Madeline Albright, Bombshell, George W. Bush, CNBC, Mary Beth Cahill, Gretchen Carlson, Chris Christie, Jon Corzine, Crayola, the deficit, distant cousins, economic sclerosis, EMILYs List, the Food Network, glasnost, Bernie Goetz, Mikhail Gorbachev, gulags, heroin alley, the Hotel Greystone, internecine primaries, the Iron Curtain, the Iron Sheik, JFK airport, Jersey girls, Jeane Kirkpatrick, Lenin, John Major, Walter Mondale, Rupert Murdoch, Northampton County, Frank Pallone, Perkins Coie, Zelda Perkins, Ronald Reagan, refuseniks, Condoleezza Rice, Susan Rice, Rutgers University, self-censorship, Yakov Smirnoff, Stalin, the Statue of Liberty, The Tea Party, Margaret Thatcher, Donald Trump, the WWF, Harvey Weinstein, Christine Todd Whitman & more!