Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Macro and market analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares her insights on the impacts of Trump's new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. She delves into the complexities of retaliation and the shift from globalization to mercantilism. Pomboy discusses how these tariffs could affect domestic jobs, inflation, and market volatility. She also examines the relationship between employment data and stock performance, highlighting the disconnect between official statistics and real-world job seekers' experiences. Tune in for a dynamic conversation filled with macroeconomic wisdom!

Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader.com, dives into the current stock market dynamics and valuations. He assesses the surprising impact of China's DeepSeek A.I. release on investor sentiment. The conversation highlights the disconnect between stagnant economic growth and rising asset prices, probing into liquidity-driven market behaviors and wealth disparity. Caution is advised as Henrich explains the risks of extreme valuations, emphasizing the need for adaptable strategies in navigating potential corrections.

This week was a roller-coaster ride for the markets. Stocks weakened as the week progressed, and then really started falling after Nvidia's guidance failed to restore confidence in investors.But then the markets rallied hard into the close on Friday. Which is causing investors everyone to ask:Is the sell-off over?Or, is this merely a head-fake before prices resume their decline?Adding to the uncertainty is the sudden rash of recession worries making it back into media headlines. The latest consumer confidence numbers are plummeting and the Atlanta GDPNow's Q1 GDP estimate suddenly plunged to a negative forecast.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all of this, plus what the latest technical analysis is telling us, rising bond prices, DOGE, the weakening housing market, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.TIME'S RUNNING OUT! BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Lance Roberts, a jurisprudential portfolio manager, offers deep insights into today's market dynamics. He discusses how the market is faring despite recent turmoil, like the DeepSeek scare and mixed earnings. Together, they analyze inflation data and the GDP's stagnation while emphasizing the resilience of major companies. The conversation also touches on the role of emotional investing, the impact of AI on market behavior, and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio. Investors are urged to think long-term amidst today's volatility.

Lacy Hunt, Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management, shares his deep insights into the current economic landscape. He argues that deflation, rather than inflation, poses the real threat to our economy. Hunt discusses the potential inaccuracies in inflation data and the alarming rise in factory idleness. He also highlights the impacts of recent monetary policies and tariffs on trade dynamics, predicting rising unemployment and challenges for monetary stability ahead.

In a compelling discussion, Cem Karsan, Founder and CIO of Kai Volatility Advisors, shares insights on navigating increased market volatility. He warns of the potential risks for investors entering 2025 while suggesting strategies for buying volatility rather than shorting the market. Karsan examines the impact of Federal Reserve policies on liquidity, the concentration of AI investments, and the need for updated investment strategies. His thoughtful approach encourages investors to adapt and rethink their frameworks amidst evolving market dynamics.

Charles Hugh Smith, an expert in economics and finance, dives into the implications of China's AI platform, DeepSeek. He discusses how DeepSeek challenges established players by leveraging open-source technology, drawing parallels with past market bubbles. The conversation explores the geopolitical dynamics of AI advancements and their potential disruption to traditional business models. Smith highlights job displacement concerns while underscoring the need for adaptability in economic policies amidst these rapid changes. He also emphasizes defensive investment strategies as the market faces uncertainty.

In this discussion, Harold Pollack, a University of Chicago Professor and co-author of 'The Index Card,' simplifies personal finance profoundly. He advocates for decluttering financial advice to essentials that can fit on an index card. Pollack explores effective savings strategies, the importance of prioritizing retirement over college funding, and emphasizes a disciplined, diverse investing approach. He highlights the emotional aspects of financial decisions and the value of having a financial advisor to navigate complexities, making prudent choices accessible to everyone.

Lance Roberts, a seasoned portfolio manager from Real Investment Advice, dives into the unrealistic expectations surrounding corporate earnings and their potential impact on stock prices. He discusses market overvaluation and the necessity for investors to stay vigilant in light of declining economic growth. The conversation also humorously touches on quirky market correlations, while underscoring the importance of data-driven strategies to navigate volatility. Throughout, there's a strong emphasis on financial literacy and equitable economic practices.

Michael Howell, the Founder and CEO of Crossborder Capital, dives into the intricate world of global liquidity and its sway over financial markets. He shares insights on the mixed economic landscape, highlighting growth in the US versus challenges in China. Howell emphasizes the cyclical nature of liquidity, warning of potential downturns ahead for stocks. He also discusses the implications of rising debt and Federal Reserve policies on asset classes and offers thoughts on gold's future in the market.