Insights Now

Watch the video version on Youtube. In this episode of Alternative Realities, we’re going to be exploring the alternatives landscape from the perspective of the individual investor. Historically, these asset classes have been the domain of institutional capital, but the structure of alternative investment vehicles is evolving in ways that make them more accessible. Not only do individual investors have more access to alternatives, they also may have a greater need as the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces challenges like elevated valuations, positive stock-bond correlation and a negative real yield. Additionally, as more companies are choosing to stay private for longer, alternatives allocations are becoming increasingly necessary to access these high-growth areas of the market. Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist is joined by Kristin Kallergis, the Global Head of Alternatives for the J.P. Morgan Private Bank, to discuss all of these themes. Kristin’s team manages $180BN of private wealth across a wide array of alternatives solutions, giving her unique insight into the evolution of this market. Timestamps: Introduction (00:00), Individuals vs. Institutions investing in alternatives (1:15), Liquidity needs within alternatives for individual investors (3:10), Selecting the right manager for alternatives (4:59), Popular asset classes within alternatives for individual investors (6:21), Niche asset classes (8:02), Private equity cash flow (10:12), Alternatives and secular themes (13:06) Resources: For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.  Federal government regulatory policies have the potential to reshape both the economic landscape and the investment opportunity set and both candidates for president have expressed strong opinions on regulatory issues.  However, their attitudes on regulatory oversight appear to vary across industries and issues affecting the economy and society.  In addition, their power to implement regulatory change is limited both by political realities and the courts.  For investors, it is important to remember that it is policy, not politics, that matters most for markets and the economy. However, history suggests that regulatory policy may not always impact markets in the ways we’d expect. To dive deeper into proposed regulatory policies and their potential impacts, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, is joined by Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. With comprehensive oversight and deep expertise in a diverse array of investment vehicles, including real estate, real assets, hedge funds, private equity, private credit and liquid alternative solutions, our mission is to demystify these often lesser-known asset classes. By providing clear, real-world examples, we aim to bridge the knowledge gap and empower investors to make informed decisions. Our goal is to bring these complex investment opportunities to life, showcasing their strategic value and how they can be effectively integrated into a diversified portfolio to achieve long-term financial objectives. Join us as Dr. David Kelly is joined by Brandon Robinson, Deputy Head of Private Markets, to discuss the different ways that adding alternatives into a portfolio can enhance clients’ outcomes and the benefits of private market investing.  For more resources on the Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. As rising geopolitical tensions and the pandemic fallout have uncovered weaknesses in global supply chains, many nations have begun to rethink their trading relationships. U.S. policy, for example, has turned increasingly nationalistic, with recent administrations implementing tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade, allocating funds toward domestic development of strategic industries and proposing other protectionist measures to support domestic activity. This election season, tariffs and trade have once again found themselves at the forefront of recent discourse, with both candidates proposing a stricter stance on trade policy, but to varying degrees and in different forms. Regardless of the outcome in November, these policies will have a profound impact on the global economy and have the potential to redefine the opportunity set across global financial markets. Today’s episode discusses whether tariffs have been effective in the past and explore the investment implications of a more strict trade policy. For this conversation, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, joins Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube.  2020 and 2021 were banner years for the private equity market as fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted fundraising, deal and exit activity. More recently, however, macro uncertainty and higher interest rates have put a damper on the asset class, which is highly dependent on leverage. Still, better-than-expected economic growth has supported recent performance. As companies, particularly in the Technology sector, wait longer to IPO, private equity has become an increasingly important way to get exposure to the high growth potential of early-stage companies. For decades, investors have used private equity to supplement their public equity allocations, enhancing returns, reducing volatility and providing access to secular market trends. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Ashmi Mehrotra, the Co-Head and Portfolio Manager within the Global Private Equity Group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the trends and investment opportunities she’s seeing in the asset class. Time stamps: Introduction (00:00), Types of PE investments most focused on (1:00), Secondaries and Co-investments (1:32), Sectors and types of companies (6:59), Implications of slowing M&A and IPO activity (10:42), What dynamics are going to drive PE activity? (11:59) Resources: For more resources on Alternatives, visit our Guide to Alternatives and Principles of Alternatives Investing Listen to the audio version of the Alternative Realities podcast: Apple Podcasts | Spotify Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. So far, this U.S. election cycle has been nothing short of turbulent and a looming source of volatility for much of this year. With the summer now behind us and November quickly approaching, investors should more seriously consider the implications of the upcoming election, and the opportunities and risks that may arise from it. That is why for the 11th season of Insights Now, titled “The policy and investment implications of the U.S. election,” David and I will discuss topics at the forefront of this election season, and explore the impacts proposed policies could have on the markets and economy. We’ll cover a range of topics, from immigration and tariffs to taxes and Fed independence, so tune in to stay informed on what could drive volatility heading into November, and how you can better prepare your portfolio for a post-election world. Over the past year and a half, surging immigration has helped boost labor supply at a time when U.S. demographic trends were sluggish and recession fears were elevated, providing a nice tailwind for the labor market and the economy more broadly. At the same time, immigration has caused significant stress for migrants and the communities that they arrive in, making the issue one of the most politically sensitive topics this election season. For our conversation, we will focus on the magnitude of the recent immigration surge, discuss how long it can continue and explore what it might mean for the economy and corporate profits moving forward. To dive deeper into all this, Gabriela Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, will be co-hosting this season and will be joined by the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist here at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Resources: For more resources on the U.S. elections visit our Election Insights hub Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Watch the video version on YouTube. In this episode:  The classic 60/40 stock-bond allocation has long been the accepted stalwart portfolio strategy. Currently, however, higher inflation has made the protection typically offered by the negative correlation between stocks and bonds less certain. Equity risk premiums are low, and interest rate volatility is high. On top of all that, public markets are becoming increasingly efficient, muting opportunities for excess return. As a result, investors are turning to Alternatives to ensure portfolios can still meet their long-term goals. Each alternative asset class has distinct characteristics and consequently a distinct role in portfolios. Dr. David Kelly is joined by Shawn Khazzam, Head of Private Wealth Alternatives, Americas, to discuss the different ways clients are using alternatives to enhance the risk-reward profile of their portfolios. Shawn is responsible for the growth strategy, sales and distribution of the private market alternative investments offered by the firm. Resources:  For more insights on Alternatives visit our website here.   Subscribe to the Notes on the Week Ahead podcast for more insights from Dr. David Kelly: Apple Podcasts | Spotify   

As the 2024 presidential election unfolds, investors face new uncertainties despite stable economic growth. The discussion reveals how historical election impacts can shape market trends and the importance of understanding political factors. Listeners learn that election year volatility is often similar to non-election years, urging calm amidst chaos. Strategies for navigating investments during this politically charged climate are explored, emphasizing long-term planning over knee-jerk reactions to political changes.

Watch the video version on YouTube.  Deficit spending is not at all a new phenomenon in the United States. In fact, it is the norm, and the U.S. has run a budget deficit in 81 of the last 95 years, or 85% of the time since 1929. What is abnormal, however, is how large the pile of U.S. debt has grown relative to the broader economy. In fiscal year 2023, U.S. debt held by the public ballooned to $26.3tn, or a striking 97% of GDP, while the budget deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP, and projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest that the debt dilemma may only get worse in the coming years. With the election quickly approaching, and last year’s debt ceiling and downgrade drama still fresh in investors’ minds, we often get asked “How will rising federal debt impact the markets and the economy?” To help us dive deeper into this question, Brandon Hall, Research Analyst, interviews the usual host of the show, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Watch the video version on YouTube.  Before 2021, the United States hadn’t seen a major bout of inflation for almost 40 years. And even when inflation peaked in June 2022, consensus estimates showed that most thought inflation would be almost back to 2% by the end of 2024. However, the journey to 2% has been more challenging than expected. Since mid-2023, inflation has remained in the 3-4% range, primarily due to persistently high shelter and auto insurance prices. This has caused the Fed to be on an extended pause. However, the latest CPI report brought some positive news, showing a month-over-month decline in prices for the first time in over a year. Year-over-year CPI inflation now sits at 3.0%, still well above a number consistent with the Fed’s 2% target for the personal consumption deflator. This episode explores if inflation can get back to its 2% target, the potential obstacles, and whether inflation even needs to be 2%. With this and the outlook for short-term interest rates being among the most dominant drivers of financial markets today, we think this discussion will be particularly useful. To help us dive deeper into this question, Mary Park Durham, Research Associate, will be interviewing the usual host, Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management.