Keep or Kut

Chad Young, Pete Ball
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Apr 19, 2021 • 53min

K ꓘ 11: Revisiting Early Season Performances

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) look back at some of the guys they have talked about now that we are a couple of weeks into the season. It's too early for victory laps, but it is not too early to start looking at what is going right, what is going wrong, and how you might improve your team. Chad and Pete kick around some possible adds and drops and cover a whole bunch of $3 or less Ottoneu players who are producing. Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps 3:01 - Injuries and postponements can leave you struggling to fill a lineup, and the confusion around COVID IL stays continues to make this more complicated 10:21 - Looking at the starts from four pitchers we discussed on previous episodes: Patrick Corbin, Casey Mize, Luke Weaver, and Freddy Peralta. 23:21 - And some hitters we previously discussed, as well: Marcus Semien, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Santander 31:55 - Chad puts Pete on the spot - would you drop these widely-drafted players for early season darlings: Drop Clint Frazier to add Cedric Mullins? Ditch C.J. Cron to add Jeimer Candelario? Bail on Keston Hiura for Jazz Chisholm? Move on from Marco Gonzales to make room for Anthony DeSclafini? 42:23 - Ottoneu Question of the Day: Who are some players that cost $3 or less who have been great value so far - and will it continue?Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Apr 12, 2021 • 1h 6min

K ꓘ 10: Early Season Reactions

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) discuss the first week of the season and take a particular look at a handful of players who have gotten off to hot starts and may provide some long-term fantasy value. They also discuss what statistics to lean on this early in the year and how, if at all, the early data we have matters. Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: Episode 10 Early Season Reactions 0:00 - ... baseball is back! 7:15 - Chad breaks down the keys to analyzing tiny samples at the beginning of the season. He also takes a look at the high number of max exit velocities that are being set for players already this season. 12:15 - The hot-ish start of Willi Castro... at least in relation to max exit velocity! 17:30 - Is Jonathan India for real? Or, should we actually consider selling on this former 5th overall pick already? 26:51 - Jake Cronenworth... unleashed! The Padres everyday 2B is continuing where he left off last year. 34:15 - Jazz Chisholm is showing very early signs of perhaps better plate discipline and may be a 2B to target and hold on to in keeper formats 41:55 - You guessed it, Pete talks about Tanner Houck 46:57 - For deeper leagues, Garrett Whitlock's hot start is certainly something to monitor, particularly if he finds his way into the Red Sox rotation 52:10 - Steven Matz... the keeper? Maybe not in shallower leagues. But in leagues where there is a price attached to keepers, Matz could play himself into some value. 58:22 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - when you know you are going to cut a mega stud before next season's auction because of their cost, is it better to move them during the season or to ride them out?Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Apr 5, 2021 • 1h 8min

K ꓘ 9: Pitchers with Alex Fast

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) are joined by Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) to talk starting pitching. Alex, Chad and Pete talk about how to use CSW to find pitching and discuss Randy Dobnak, Aaron Civale, Patrick Corbin, Nate Pearson, Justin Dunn, Trevor Rogers, Daulton Jefferies, Freddy Peralta, Logan Webb, and more. Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: Episode 9 Pitchers with Alex Fast 1:30 - The details on Alex Fast's keeper league 4:36 - Pete shares why he thinks it's so crucial to focus on pitching (even if Chad always wants to wait) 10:30 - Alex breaks down CSW (Called Strikes + Whiffs) and how it can help you find SP 16:43 - What if the CSW looks good but the results aren't following? 21:57 - High CS with low W, the need for a put-away pitch, and potential breakouts thanks to new pitches 28:10 - What to look for in pitching prospects 35:44 - Pete's puts Alex (and Chad) on the spot to rate five SP going late or on the wire: Trevor Rogers, Daulton Jefferies, Justin Dunn, Freddy Peralta and Logan Webb 56:21- Alex's early-season watchlist 59:39 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - In Ottoneu Head-to-Head leagues, where there is a cap on SP games started each week, is a quantity-over-quality approach to SP viable? Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 29, 2021 • 1h 16min

K ꓘ 8: Ottoneu Auction Recap

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) recently participated in their Fangraphs Staff Ottoneu league auction. They go over how they approached the auction, what they planned to do going into it, and how it actually went down. Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: Episode 8 Ottoneu Auction Recap 2:10 - Pitching being pushed up drafts and more expensive in auctions this season Chad goes the pro-wait-on-pitching path, Pete thinks you should hop on pitching early. 14:28 - Pete's first impressions of Ottoneu, breakdown of the auction begins Clayton Kershaw went for just $22! Max Scherzer goes for $41! And Pete and Chad think Carlos Carrasco may have been a steal at $11. 23:05 - Is Patrick Corbin washed or is he a steal? 29:28 - Pete's approach to the auction and how it went down for him 34:00 - Josh Lindblom, A.J. Puk, and the benefit of long-relievers in Ottoneu points leagues 41:40 - Chad views Ottoneu auctions similar to MLB free agency and explains why 43:00 - Chad breaks down what his initial plan for the auction was and how he had to adjust and focus on his plan B. 49:50 - If you are the tone-setter who nominates the first player in an auction, what is your approach? 1:00:16 - The guys get deep into breaking down Shohei Ohtani's value 1:06:05 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - is age overvalued in Ottoneu formats? Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 22, 2021 • 1h 27min

K ꓘ 7: Mocking a Keeper Draft

Ten listeners joined Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) for a 23-round, 12-team mock draft built on the assumption that each team would have 10 keepers for 2022. While there are dynasty rankings out there and plenty of redraft ADP data, keeper drafts have their own feel, and in this week's episode, Pete and Chad break down this mock and talk about all the strategies employed, from focusing on 2021 to an almost pure-dynasty style draft by one manager. Get thoughts on when to reach, who to reach for, and how to draft based on what the rest of your league is doing. In the Ottoneu Question of the Day, Pete pushes Chad on one of the more unique scoring categories in Ottoneu - HR/9 in Ottoneu Classic 4x4 scoring. Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: Episode 7 mock draft 0:29 - Rules of the draft 3:12 - Pete picking from the first spot Strategizing at the turn, Andrew Vaughn's limited track record, plus thoughts on Trevor Bauer, Salvador Perez and Xander Bogaerts. 11:39 - Dan picking second Clayton Kershaw over Corbin Burnes, grabbing a late Marcus Semien, and drafting for 2021 while letting the keepers come when they come 16:28 - Chad’s team from the 3 hole Reaching for your guys, the long-term upside of Devin Williams, betting on the Chris Sale path for Garrett Crochet, wasting a pick on saves that don't help, plus drafting Adalberto Mondesi even if you aren't a believer. 25:18 - Jason picking fourth Gambling on Marco Luciano in the 23rd, waiting on SS and reaching for C, the importance of where you draft this year and next 33:37 - Astraea with the 5th Going Christian Yelich over Mike Trout, jumping the queue to take J.T. Realmuto, the limited keeper value offered closers, and solving the stats you struggle with early 41:05 - Michael drafting 6th Building for 2022, reaching for Wander Franco and Jarred Kelenic, tripling up on TJ aces, and staying strategic through to the end 46:50 - Picking 7th is Chris Committing to a plan to win now or play for the future, getting the old guy value from stone-cold vets 51:10 - Seth with the 8th How to draft prospects in a keeper with appearances from Gavin Lux, Jo Adell, and other; plus looking at a draft that appeared to go to plan through 8 rounds 55:41 - Matt picks 9th Stashing injured pitchers as a strategy in keeper leagues, and our ranking of the TJ pitchers (Mike Clevinger, Justin Verlander, Luis Severino, Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard) vs. top pitching prospects 1:00:50 - John tries to beat his brother from the 10 spot Tripling up on elite closers and just how many innings will you be able to get out of Walker Buehler 1:07:40 - Drafting 11th is Geoff Jesus Luzard and the boring rotation, the value of non-closer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 15, 2021 • 1h 19min

K ꓘ 6: Keeper Decision Mailbag

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) are joined by Adam Howe (@eightygrade) of the On the Wire Podcast, to answer some listener questions. With Opening Day around the corner, keeper decisions are looming. We answer questions from five listeners - and one from Adam! Along the way, we cover everything from balancing pitching vs. hitting and when it is or isn't okay to punt a category to unique keeper rules and sunk costs. Plus, in the Ottoneu Question of the Day, Chad offers one piece of advice for those prepping for Ottoneu auctions. Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: 4:04 - Every keeper league has its own unique rules and structure 7:08 - From DrewSkis86 on the PL+ Discord: $5 Josh Rojas, $5 Nico Hoerner, or $1 Brendan Rodgers? Plus a special appearance from Ty France! 15:20 - From Sean on the Ottoneu Slack: When does it make sense to cut a guy you like, hoping to get him back for a better price? 21:19 - Adam asks us which six guys to cut from his 27-man dynasty roster. We debate Sam Hilliard vs. Daulton Varsho, talk about Robbie Ray and sunk costs, and discuss the strategy involved with keeping April saves vs. long-term upside. 42:45 - From listener Ian: Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton, or Jose Altuve? How do league depth and league behavior change your thinking on prioritizing hitting vs. pitching? 49:06 - From Lere on PL+ Discord: Which eight should be kept in a 10-team, 6x6 H2H? Does Max Scherzer's age make him less interesting than younger players with more upside? Starling Marte vs. Austin Meadows? Plus, does 6x6 make it easier to punt a category? 57:55 - From listener Josh: Which four guys he should keep, considering the costs in draft picks and FAAB dollars? Do you give up FAAB for Tyler Glasnow or take the cheaper Nate Pearson or Tarik Skubal? Plus Adam gives us some advice on planning for FAAB. 1:10:34 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - What is the one piece of advice for someone entering their first Ottoneu auction?Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 14, 2021 • 49min

K ꓘ 5: Potential Late Keepers

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) go deep, looking at players outside the top 300 or going for Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: Infield 4:10 - Pete tells you it is time to buy into Brendan Rodgers 10:38 - Rowdy Tellez and his Statcast sliders impress Chad Outfield 13:03 - Sam Hilliard is the second Rockie Pete thinks you should draft late 19:18 - Austin Hays killed it for most of 2020 and Chad isn't sure if everyone noticed Starting Pitcher 22:48 - Pete wonders if Luke Weaver can find his slider 28:36 - For about $2, Chad thinks Ryan Yarbrough is well worth the price Relief Pitcher 31:51 - He may not have the job today, but Pete is buying saves from Yimi Garcia 35:27 - If you thought the Weaver recommendation was tepid, wait til you hear Chad talk about Josh Staumont 39:45 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - What do you do with Framber Valdez?Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 8, 2021 • 1h 3min

K ꓘ 4: ADP Tier Jumpers

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) go tier by tier in NFBC ADPs to try and figure out which players are most likely to make a significant jump from 2021 into 2022. Is Kyle Tucker the most likely player with an ADP over 25 to enter next year's Top 10? Or, is it Luis Robert? Listen to find out the answer to those questions, and more! Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: 3:02 - Luis Robert - Chad's pick to have the best chance at entering the top 10 in ADP next year 6:50 - Kyle Tucker - Pete's choice! And, his first of three Astros. But, again, not an Astros fan. 9:38 - Austin Meadows - Is Meadows being drafted too late? Chad sees him as a potential top 25 pick next year. 15:33 - Yordan Álvarez - Houston Astro #2... and a future top 25 pick? 20:32 - Pete and Chad rank the DH's: JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz, and Álvarez. 26:05 - Victor Robles - Chad makes the case that Robles could go in Starling Marte territory next year as a top 50 pick. 36:38 - Carlos Correa - Pete picks another Astro. Shocker. 42:57 - Chris Sale... or Noah Syndergaard... or Luis Severino - Chad picks Sale while he and Pete go over the clear benefits of stashing one of these guys and enjoying the inevitable boost in ADP that is to come. 51:36 - Nick Senzel - a non-Astro! Pete likes Senzel. 52:35 - Ottoneu Question of the Day - How long should rebuilding take? What are the approaches to a rebuild? Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Mar 1, 2021 • 1h 4min

K ꓘ 3: Debating the Top Tens

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) tweeted out their 5x5 keeper league top ten lists for each position and in this episode, they dig into each other's rankings. Why is Chad higher on Nolan Arenado? Why is Pete all in on Christian Yelich? Why did Chad wait until the 42nd round to draft a C in a recent dynasty draft? And, of course, Pete asks the Ottoneu Question of the Day. Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: 1:12 - Top Ten Catchers 2:28 - Don't give up on Gary Sanchez 10:28 - Top Ten 1B 11:06 - Cody Bellinger vs Freddie Freeman 14:33 - The possibly elite keeper value of Vlad Guerrero, Jr. 18:29 - Top Ten 2B 19:05 - The Nick Madrigal Debate 24:26 - Top Ten SS 25:12 - One of us is high on Xander Bogaerts, and it isn't the Boston fan 28:09 - Adalberto Mondesi - draft his ceiling or fade his floor? 33:51 - Top Ten 3B 34:33 - Nolan Arenado, now with 100% less Coors 37:47 - Boston fandom strikes back: Rafael Devers 42:41 - The pros and cons of Yoan Moncada 45:52 - Top Ten OF 46:18 - The impossible task of ranking the top three 47:57 - 2020 Never Happened: The Christian Yelich Story 50:31 - Top Ten SP 54:22 - The Top Ten RP 57:26 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - What is your approach to the auction when you don't have much money to spend? Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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Feb 22, 2021 • 1h 2min

K ꓘ 2: Keeper Draft Strategies and Who Would You Rather?

Pete Ball (@PeteBBaseball) and Chad Young (@ChadYoung) examine draft strategies for keeper leagues and all the different components you must keep in mind when preparing for your keeper league’s draft. They then dive into some player comparisons where Chad poses different sets of players, paired by position, and asks Pete which of the two players he prefers in a keeper setting. Players such as Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, Gavin Lux, Marcus Semien, and more are all discussed. Finally, it wouldn’t be the Keep or Kut podcast without the Ottoneu Question of the Day! Join Pitcher List Plus and get an ad-free website and access to the Pitcher List Discord community, while supporting the podcast. Timestamps: 2:41 - Talking draft strategy for different types of keeper leagues. When is it OK to let a stud go back into the draft to keep a lesser player at a cheaper price? Questions like these are all tackled. 18:38 - Player comparisons begin with Gavin Lux vs Marcus Semien 25:45 - Will Smith vs JT Realmuto 32:49 - Paul Goldschmidt vs Ryan Mountcastle 40:53 - Patrick Corbin vs German Marquez 46:57 - The Ottoneu Question of the Day - What should fantasy veterans but Ottoneu noobs know about the Ottoneu scoring systems? Get PL+ and join our community: https://pitcherlist.com/plus Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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