Street Signals

In thinking about markets, we can often get the long-term vision right without considering the bumps along the way and how one navigates them. And right now, there are a lot of potential bumps to consider. This week, we are very excited to welcome Peter Vincent, head of trading for EMEA for State Street Global Markets, to talk about his background and experience, how he is thinking about markets at the moment and what periods from a long career of trading macro markets are most like the current environment.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After 10 years of mostly steady outperformance, investors are rotating away from tech stocks and the sector is now only keeping pace with the broader index. Anthi Tsouvali joins Tim to discuss whether we have seen peak sentiment around IT and growth stocks and what catalysts would be necessary for resumed strength in this sector. We also briefly walk through Q2 earnings thus far, with an eye on the outlook for the remainder of 2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rest of the summer will likely be spent wondering just how much further major central banks need to go in tightening policy. The Federal Reserve in particular sound like they are nearing the end of a rapid hiking cycle - or at least sounding like they want to be done. But US economic activity still looks robust. Lee Ferridge joins Tim this week to discuss the sources of strength in the US economy, what we can expect in the coming months and what it means for US asset markets and the long-term drivers of the US dollar.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new partnership with GeoQuant expands our indicator set to include measures of geopolitical and country risks. We discuss these metrics with GeoQuant co-founder and CEO Mark Rosenberg and Michael Guidi from State Street Associates. Mark also provides us with a deep dive on developments in the US-China relationship, the Ukraine war and the upcoming US presidential election cycle.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting is likely to mean a resumption of rate hikes after June's wait-and-see approach. The main question for markets is what happens after that? Marvin Loh joins Tim to discuss where terminal rates may go and when a policy pivot might come. They also talk about how the shape of the Fed's balance sheet might change in the coming year and whether worries over USD funding are legitimate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China's post-COVID reopening was seen as a potential tailwind for global growth when other economies were seen slowing thanks to tighter monetary and fiscal policy. The reality has been a bit less impressive, with Chinese growth still failing to launch. Yuting Shao from our Emerging Markets team updates us on China's progress, focusing on what further support is still to come and what it all means for the beleaguered CNY.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A year ago, the US yield curve inverted, raising the probability of a recession as such moves so often have signaled in past market cycles. Equity markets have defied the gloom, though, and the long forecast earnings recession that was expected to follow has been harder to spot than the economic recession. Our guest this week, Fred Goodwin, argues that all may be about to change, with many of 2023s winning views at risk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asset allocation decisions are difficult enough, but especially so in the current environment, with the paths of growth and inflation so unclear. A recent paper by Mark Kritzman, one of our academic partners, and David Turkington, Head of State Street Associates, helps frame this quandary, using techniques that help determine the most relevant historic comparatives, towards making better, more informed predictions in an application to portfolio construction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation is in retreat - not at a pace fast enough for the Fed to abandon its stance of tighter monetary policy but enough that the Fed skipped a rate hike at its most recent policy meeting. During a pivotal two weeks of central bank meetings, where inflation remains top of mind, what now? Join Tim as he discusses the outlook for inflation and monetary policy with State Street Global Markets' Head of Macro Strategy, Michael Metcalfe. Drawing on PriceStats and State Street's other real-time data tools, Michael provides an up to the minute inflation reading and considers the likelihood of a prolonged pause in rate hikes and the prospect of rate cuts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Previously only available to State Street's clients, Street Signals goes public! In this opening episode, we introduce the State Street Institutional Investor Indicators (3is), a new set of tools for investors. State Street's 3is provide a view of the positioning, risk appetite and portfolio carbon exposure of the world's largest institutional investors based on aggregated and anonymized post-trade data. That means they offer a window into what global investors are actually doing, not what they say they're doing. Join host Tim Graf in conversation with State Street Global Markets' Head of Research, Will Kinlaw, to discuss how these indicators work and what they reveal right now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.