Will the budget make inflation worse? Are its boosts to welfare payments just the first step for the Labor government? Could the projected one-off surplus be followed by another one or more? What (if any) of the budget measures will the Coalition oppose? There’s quite a bit about this budget that, as the saying goes, “only time will tell”. In this podcast, Treasurer Jim Chalmers defends his budget from those economists who claim it will be inflationary, and strongly rejects suggestions it doesn’t have much for middle income Australians struggling with rising mortgage payments. Chalmers also promises that, given the current tight labour market, a priority in coming months will be finding ways to help more of the long-term unemployed into jobs. Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor lists some of the measures the opposition supports but will not commit on the changes to the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, despite the sector’s benign attitude to the cautious revamp.

The federal government is trying to contain the exploding cost of the landmark National Disability Insurance Scheme – especially difficult given the fears of vulnerable people who rely on it. National cabinet’s decision last week to aim to reduce the cost increase from the current 14% annually down to 8% by 2026 received a sharp reaction from disability advocates. This financial year the NDIS will cost more than $35 billion, two thirds paid by the federal government. The government has flagged areas for change and there is also a review being done. In this podcast, former Paralympian Kurt Fearnley, chair of the National Disability Insurance Authority, which implements the scheme, discusses its issues and the road ahead.

With the Liberal Party formally opposing the Voice, Peter Dutton last week kicked off his “no” campaign in Alice Springs. His claim that child sexual abuse is rife was quickly under attack from the government and others who accused him of politicking, using the issue as a political football. Marion Scrymgour, a former deputy chief minister in the Northern Territory, is the federal Labor member for the seat of Lingiari, an electorate covering almost all the NT outside Darwin. Scrymgour says Dutton is taking up the same theme as was heard in the Northern Territory intervention. “The same campaign that was done to justify the intervention is the same campaign that’s been happening with the Leader of the Opposition.

Professor Marcia Langton holds the Foundation Chair of Australian Indigenous Studies at the University of Melbourne, and was co-author (with Professor Tom Calma) of the Indigenous Voice Co-design Process report to the Morrison government. She has been a fighter for rights and progress for Indigenous Australians for decades, and she’s one of those at the centre of the yes campaign for the Voice. Her own voice is always forthright and formidable. Langton admits she isn’t “entirely confident” where the referendum stands at the moment but is more positive as the debate continues. “I’ve been gauging the response of the general public by reading a lot and having a look at the social media, and I think most people can see that this is a very simple and modest proposition and that it will make a difference. And what I’m seeing more and more is most people realising, yes, well, why don’t Indigenous people have a say about policies and the laws that affect them? "They realise when they think about it that this has gone on for too long, where all of these laws and policies that seem to be universally ineffective in closing the gap, and causing more suffering, have been imposed on us by non-Indigenous people. […] I think most people are still very embarrassed about the Northern Territory intervention initiated by John Howard.”

The Liberals have formally decided to oppose the Voice. Peter Dutton has declared he will campaign against it, a high risk strategy when polls are showing a majority of Australians currently support a “yes” vote. Noel Pearson was scathing of the Liberal Party, calling the decision not to support the Voice “a Judas betrayal of our country”. Moderate Liberal MP Bridget Archer will campaign for the “yes” case. In this podcast, Michelle Grattan and Senator Simon Birmingham, leader of the opposition in the senate, and one of the few remaining moderates in the party, discuss the Voice, the Aston byelection defeat and “where to now?” for the Liberal Party.

Senator Lidia Thorpe’s defection from the Greens changed the power dynamic in the Senate. Now the government needs two crossbenchers (and the Greens) to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition. Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie and her colleague Tammy Tyrrell can provide those two votes, which puts them in a potentially strong bargaining position. Lambie has never been afraid to call things how she see’s them. She recently visited Alice Springs and urged the situation needed some “tough love”. In this podcast Lambie urges a return to the old Community Development Employment Projects program for Indigenous communities. Under the CDEP people exchanged unemployment benefits for work and training managed by a local Indigenous community organisations. “I don’t know how many of these places I’ve visited in the Indigenous communities over the last nine years where they just so much praise that old jobs program.”

The Productivity Commission’s nine-volume report has a tough central message. It says productivity policy has to focus on the areas that have proven the hardest in the past, rather than those where previously progress has been most readily achieved. One key take from the report is that Australia is performing poorly in growing its productivity. The commission makes recommendations across the policy spectrum, from education and health through workplace relations and migration to data and technology. It points to the difficulty of improving productivity in the public sector, and more generally to the complexities, now that we have become predominantly a services economy.   In this podcast, Michelle Grattan discusses the blueprint for reform with commission chair, Michael Brennan.

Voters in New South Wales are heading to the polling booths on March 25. For both Premier Dominic Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns, it is their first election as leader. The Coalition government has held power since 2011. Labor needs to gain a net nine seats to form majority government. If Labor wins, the party will be in power in every state and territory except Tasmania. There are 10 seats in this election that are on a margin of less than 6%, including Minns’ seat of Kogarah on 0.1%. In several contests the fate of “teal’ candidates will be watched. Spending and donation caps, and optional preferential voting make the teals’ path to victory more difficult than in the federal election. In this podcast, Michelle Grattan speaks with Antony Green, the ABC’s election analyst, Professor Andy Marks, from the University of Western Sydney, and Ashleigh Raper, the ABC’s NSW state political reporter.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers sparked a political row when he announced a tax hike on superannuation concessions for accounts with balances over $3 million, from 15% to 30%, to begin in 2025. Polling indicates the move has broad support from the public, although any change to super is always controversial. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has promised the change would be reversed by a Coalition government. Mike Callaghan, a former treasury official, chaired the Retirement Income Review that was handed to the Morrison government in 2020. Callaghan sees the Chalmers’ change to super as “an important step”.

Adam Bandt aspired to power-sharing with a Labor government. That was never going to happen but, possessing the major slice of the balance of power in the Senate, the Greens have considerable potential muscle – at least in theory. In this podcast, we get a glimpse of the gap between Greens leader Adam Bandt’s aspiration for ambitious reforms and the reality that the government is only giving concessions at the edges to the minor party. “There’s a capacity for this to be a golden era of reform in this parliament,” Bandt says. “For us to pass laws that tackle the climate crisis and to protect the environment. That tackle the cost of living crisis.