Politics with Michelle Grattan

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team. In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn canvass the latest (static) polls, apparently unaffected by Anthony Albanese’s COVID absence, or indeed by much else in the campaign so far. They also discuss shock jock Ray Hadley’s extraordinary shouty assault on Albanese, how the very serious issue of the Solomons-China security pact is playing into the campaign, and whether controversial Liberal candidate Katherine Deves is really all about seats other than Warringah, the one she is contesting.

Andrew Wilkie, MP for the Tasmanian seat of Clark, has “lived” a hung parliament. In 2010, Wilkie did a formal “deal” to support Julia Gillard. When later she didn’t deliver on his key issue of gambling reform, he broke it off. In this podcast Wilkie explains how he would approach the situation if the election produces no clear winner. No deals. But maybe a letter on giving confidence and supply. He suggests independent candidates – who are being assailed with questions about which side they would support in a hung parliament – should contact him for a chat about how to approach that situation, and the role of crossbenchers generally. “If they give me a call and ask what I think, I’ll tell them how I’ve navigated my way through the last 12 years and what my community has thought of it,” he says.   “I’ve explained how I’m going to approach things, and it’s always been well received by my community. In fact, my primary vote and two-party preferred has increased in every election. So whatever formulation I’m using seems to work. "It might be something that some of these new independent candidates might want to just observe and think about. I think it is useful to give some indication of your thought processes,” Wilkie says. “I see my role as being a constructive one. It’s to ensure we have an effective government for the next three years. My job isn’t to pull down any party or pull down any government. So if the Australian community elects a group of people and no party has an absolute majority, I will look for ways to be constructive.” Wilkie strongly defends the role of crossbenchers, rejecting Scott Morrison’s argument that a hung parliament would make for instability. Their role can be useful even when there is majority government, Wilkie says. He concedes that when crossbenchers are in a position of power – as under Gillard – their electorates get favoured treatment and that this isn’t “fair” (although he admits he was happy to seek and take the funds). He recalls favourably Anthony Albanese’s performance as manager of government business in the Gillard government. “I credit him with being very skilled and effective at corralling the crossbench and ensuring stability of the parliament.” “If Anthony Albanese finds himself negotiating with the crossbench, he’s got form. And I suppose I can probably say the same about Scott Morrison over the last few years, because he’s been almost in minority for most of it, and he’s managed to keep what I’ll call the independent crossbenchers pretty much in line.” As for the election campaigning, “In my opinion, this is the worst campaign I’ve observed as far as the mudslinging and the dishonesty. I mean, there used to be some limits on the dishonesty of the political parties in the candidates, but there seem to be no limits at this election.”

In this episode, Michelle Grattan speaks with Joe Hockey about his newly-released memoir titled Diplomatic.  Hockey, treasurer in the Abbott government and former Australian ambassador to the United States, picked early that Donald Trump had a good prospect of becoming president and reached out to his team, something that went down badly at the time with the foreign affairs bureaucracy back in Canberra.   But Hockey says: "Diplomacy is just about human relations. It's countries dealing on the same basis with each other as human beings. So you're never going to get on well with someone you don't know. You're actually going to have to engage." Of Trump's successor, Hockey says: "I think Joe Biden has aged quite a bit in the presidency.  He's only been president for just over a year.  He's really shown he hasn't had the energy that you would expect of someone as president of the United States." Also, "he's run a very left wing agenda, and that's completely stunned – completely stunned – middle America, because they thought he was a safe, middle-of-the-road sort of person. "America is just not tuned into that. They're not buying that." Speaking about the differences between US and Australian politics, Hockey highlights the significance of compulsory voting in this country. "I think the challenge in the United States is, you know, firstly, you try and get your own people to vote. And the more extreme you are, the more you villainise, and radicalise your opponents. It's easier to get people to come out and vote for you if they're against something. "We don't have that battle for the extremes, and I think that's really, really important," he says. "The political ads and what people say about each other in the United States has no filter, has no boundaries. And as a result, it becomes more fractious, becomes much more aggressive. And I think it's really, really important that proper defamation laws [exist] that allow someone to go in and protect their reputation so that people cannot make ridiculous, false accusations against others." And Hockey's prediction for May 21? "I think it's just too close to call, really. I genuinely feel that both parties have a pathway to victory. And then, as so often the case, as events unfold during the campaign, we'll get a clearer picture of which way [...] the events are breaking."

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team. In this podcast Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn canvass the fallout from Anthony Albanese’s lapse when asked to nominate the unemployment level and the cash rate. Meanwhile Scott Morrison, with poor popularity, has drawn on voters’ experience with their dentist: it doesn’t matter whether you like them – it’s about their competence. They also discuss the strange story of Alan Tudge, who remains in cabinet and education minister, albeit without ministerial salary or duties, despite Morrison earlier saying “he is not seeking to return to the frontbench, and I support his decision”. Finally, they canvass whether this election will ever turn to actual policy issues.

The tax offset for low and middle income earners (LMITO) will not be extended beyond this financial year, so does this amount to a tax increase for these people? Treasurer Josh Frydenberg tells the podcast the offset was a “temporary measure” that was extended as fiscal stimulus, due to the pressures on the budget from COVID. It’s being removed “now that the economy is normalising”. With unemployment set to fall below 4%, Frydenberg also says “what we think is going to happen is upward pressure on wages”. Annual wage growth is at 2.3% but Frydenberg says there’s a “broader indicator of earnings across the economy [Average Earnings in the National Accounts (AENA)] which has been higher than where the wage price index is. It’s expected to get to 5% this year, which is above where inflation is at. That’s a broader earnings indicator, which takes into account bonuses, promotions, people moving jobs and the like.”   The treasurer, who holds the Victorian seat of Kooyong, is one of the Liberal members being targeted by “teal” independent candidates running on issues such as climate and the need for a federal integrity commission. Frydenberg – who is more popular than Scott Morrison in the “leafy” seats – will be used to campaign where these candidates are strong. “I will give as much support as I can to my colleagues who face those opponents.”

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team. In this podcast, Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn talk about treasurer Josh Frydenberg's 'big spend' budget, Anthony Albanese's coming budget reply speech, a Liberal senator's scathing review of Scott Morrison, and what the parties' key issues will be at the election that's about to be called.

The opposition is criticising the government’s “giveaway” budget but, predictably, with the election close, is not opposing its cost of living package, which includes a temporary cut in full excise and billions of dollars for low and middle income taxpayers, pensioners and welfare recipients. Jim Chalmers is shadow treasurer, and he tells this podcast, “It’s a vote seeker budget in the sense that it’s got a shelf life of six or seven weeks. "The government is temperamentally incapable of seeing beyond the election, and that’s the difference [with Labor]. I think there was a real appetite in the community for something that said, ‘we’ve been through a lot together. And what does the future look like?’” Chalmers argues voters will “see through it in the same way they see through the prime minister”.   Like the Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, Chalmers rules out extending the petrol excise cut beyond its September expiry date. “I’ve said, to be upfront to the Australian people, it’s difficult to see a government of either political persuasion being able to afford to extend that excise relief forever. We’re just being upfront about it because we believe in being responsible with the people’s money.” He dodges when asked about a Labor government’s response, after the budget didn’t renew the tax offset for low and middle income earners. But the signal is that Labor would not seek to restore it. “We don’t want to pre-empt decisions that a future government may take,” he says. “The reality is this government is going to the election with the worst set of books that any government has ever taken to an election in Australia. There’s not room in our alternative budget, even for all of the good ideas. And so we’ve got to prioritise and sequence and make sure that whatever we do is delivering maximum bang for buck. "This is the inheritance if government changed hands and so my responsibility if I was the treasurer […] is to weigh up all of those pressures to implement our election commitments.”

As the devastating war in Ukraine continues, Michelle Grattan speaks with ABC journalist Sarah Ferguson about her experiences in reporting her Four Corners episode Despair and Defiance – how she was able to capture this story – and her views on where the conflict is likely to go from now. Sarah and her team presented a raw portrayal of the conflict and its human toll in Kyiv and elsewhere. “[In reporting] so much of these things comes down to simple practicalities. Can you get food? Can you get a driver? Can you get out? And once we’d got all of those things in place, we were good to go.” Ukranian officialdom knows how vital it is to get its story to the world. Ukranian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy “has understood the importance of telling people the story of what’s happening.”   “The Russians actually shelled people during the evacuations and fired on people. […] The Russians aren’t observing the sort of conventions of war where civilians are able to be evacuated. So getting them out and witnessing that was unquestionably dangerous. It was a dangerous place to be.” Caught in this horrific situation, ordinary Ukrainians can do little but just think “from day to day” rather than contemplate the future. “‘If I can get through today, what is my plan for tomorrow?’ […] The fear of what lies ahead is so grim that the human can’t – you can’t live with that amount of fear. So in order to function, you keep your horizon nearer.”

As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan now includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team. In this podcast, Michelle and politics + society editor Amanda Dunn talk about Anthony Albanese’s handling of the bullying allegations mounted by friends of the late senator Kimberly Kitching, Labor’s sweeping victory in the South Australian election, and next week’s budget which will contain measures targeting the cost of living, which is escalating as an election issue.

Australia’s budget situation has been quietly improving. Deloitte Access Economics director Chris Richardson says the remarkable strength of the Australian economy means it no longer needs the emergency support it has been getting from the government and the Reserve Bank. Government spending fell by a record 10% in the year to January. He counsels against emergency measures to protect Australians from the soaring price of petrol, saying today’s international oil price implies that in less than a fortnight petrol prices will be between 15 and 20 cents lower a litre. While there is no guarantee they won’t climb again, the relief that’s in store is half as big as the relief the government could deliver by cutting fuel excise, a measure he says would be like applying a Band-Aid that would be difficult to rip off. Rather than pumping more money into the economy, the March 29 budget should be withdrawing support in a measured fashion. Although government debt has climbed, low interest rates mean the payments on government debt cost less than before COVID.   With Australia just a “handful of months” away from an unemployment rate of 3.5% – Thursday’s February rate was 4.0% - Australia should celebrate its success in getting its economic policies right during COVID. While the reopening of borders will slow Australia’s success in bringing down unemployment, it is unlikely to reverse it. After petrol prices, the next challenge for Australians will be higher mortgage rates, but they will be going up for a reason, Richardson says, because inflation is climbing and wage growth is climbing, which will improve the budget position further.