Moving Markets: Daily News

Data showed low US jobless claims contrasting with continued corporate layoffs, leaving rate cut expectations for next week intact. This helped US small caps to outperform. Onshore China shares are rising following strong demand for the second-largest IPO this year. Global central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries for the first time in 30 years. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, talks about volatile metals this week and what FX trading in a narrow range means for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:33) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are now pricing in an 89% chance of a rate cut by the Fed next week after November private payrolls data surprised, revealing 32,000 jobs were cut (instead of the expected 40,000 added). US indices closed marginally higher on the day, with Asian markets following suit. Japan’s 30-year government bond auction saw good demand, but JGB yields remain high as markets anticipate a rate hike. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to talk about silver - its remarkable rally and whether it is justified, and what might happen next.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:06) - Silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (09:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets staged a cautious rebound yesterday, with major indices posting modest gains. In Europe, utilities led the advance, lifting the broader market, while in the US, leadership came from big tech and AI-related stocks. Sentiment was buoyed by SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son’s revelation that he was “practically crying” to sell the company’s Nvidia stake, alongside a strong earnings report from MongoDB. However, not all segments participated in the rally – precious metals lagged, and the energy sector saw a notable reversal. Meanwhile, DarioMessi, Head of Fixed Income Research, discusses expectations surrounding the still-pending appointment of a new Fed Chair for next year and how the bond market is digesting this transition.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:29) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (10:34) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stocks and bonds declined amid company-specific developments and concerns over bond supply, as investors prepare for a record-level issuance of investment-grade debt in the coming days. Additionally, rising expectations of an imminent interest rate hike in Japan further pressured yields upward. In today’s programme, we welcome Manuel Villegas from Next GenerationResearch, who shares his insights on the future trajectory of artificial intelligence - and addressesthe pressing question: Is AI experiencing a bubble?(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:08) - Artificial Intelligence update: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research (12:38) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

November closed with markets focused on hopes of a Fed rate cut, which overshadowed fears of an AI bubble. The S&P 500 made strong gains in a holiday-shortened week, while technology lagged, leaving the Nasdaq down in November for the first time after seven months of gains. European equities ended the month slightly higher, supported by the strong outperformance of Switzerland’s SMI last week. Silver is hitting new highs, while gold is also climbing. In Asia, Chinese PMI data disappointed, while India stood out with 8.2% GDP growth in the third quarter. The head of Japan’s central bank hinted at a rate rise during a speech on Monday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, shares his views on the USD, precious metals, and his outlook for US equities.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:31) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:51) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US Thanksgiving holiday has given stock markets globally a brief pause following the strong performance earlier in the week. With Asian markets trading mixed this morning, attention shifts to key eurozone inflation data, while US markets resume trading for a shortened session. In today’s programme, we welcome Nicolas Jordan from the CIO Office, who discusses the concerns around potential cracks in the artificial intelligence capital expenditure cycle.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:23) - Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis (11:29) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets are now pricing in an almost 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December – this boosted tech stocks and others followed suit, prompting a global rally. US markets will be shut today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and the Black Friday shopping bonanza will start tomorrow when the US market will reopen for a shortened trading session. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economic and Next Generation Research, joins the show with a timely update on energy markets and what’s driving them currently. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, rounds off the podcast by highlighting the latest moves in Sterling after the UK budget as well as this week’s action in preciousmetals.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:44) - Energy Markets: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:41) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (15:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

In this insightful discussion, Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content, and Nenad Dinic, an Equity Strategy Research analyst, delve into the rallying equity markets fueled by hopes of US interest rate cuts. Roman highlights a significant drop in oil prices linked to Ukraine de-escalation, while Nenad argues that despite a stronger yen, Japanese equities remain on an upward trajectory thanks to fiscal stimulus and domestic consumption. Their analysis sheds light on the dynamic interplay between macroeconomic factors and market movements.

Mike Rauber, a product and investment content expert, shares insights on the robust US equity rally driven by AI optimism and the potential for a December rate cut. Manuel Villegas, a digital assets specialist from Next Generation Research, discusses the recent drop in crypto prices, heavy ETF flows into Bitcoin, and the risks tied to companies holding crypto treasuries. Together, they reflect on how geopolitical tensions and shifting market dynamics are influencing investor sentiment and asset performance.

Jan Bopp, a product and investment content specialist, and Mensur Pocinci, head of technical analysis, dive into the turbulent shifts in equity markets. They explore market reactions to potential peace talks in Ukraine and Eli Lilly's ascendance to a trillion-dollar valuation. Mensur deciphers the bullish signals from a surprising Nasdaq reversal, while Jan discusses the impact of dovish Fed comments lifting US stocks. The duo highlights the S&P's broad rally as a positive sign for future gains, promising insights for market watchers.