Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. “There are two types of truths – one that can be derived from first principles, and another that emerges from a common set of beliefs or a shared narrative.” It was our great pleasure to speak this week with Demetri Kofinas, host of the popular Hidden Forces podcast. We have been keen listeners to Hidden Forces for some time and have admired Demetri’s ability to dive deep into topics as diverse as epistemology, philosophy, global macro and digital assets, to name just a few. Our conversation included: Demetri’s background in media and journey to establishing Hidden Forces Disillusionment after the Great Financial Crisis and conspiracy rabbit holes Is the fracturing US political system beyond repair? The Trump Phenomenon – cause, symptom or catalyst? Hyperrealism, information bubbles and the struggle to find common ground Fiat news and narrative wars Defining truth – the trouble with epistemology Digital assets, financial nihilism and generational divide US, China and Russia – the geopolitical backdrop Demetri also walked us through his process for generating ideas for episodes and cited memorable guests that have helped shape his understanding on many of the subjects we touched upon. It was a truly fascinating conversation and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. “As the discount rate drives towards zero, it inflates every asset on the planet, including their correlations. Today’s dominant factor is discount rate risk.” Fasten your seatbelt and dial down the speed on your podcast player, because you are in for an epic ride. With our good friend Corey Hoffstein (CIO of Newfound Research) as co-host, we were once again joined by one of the most interesting and thought-provoking guests we’ve had on the show: Chris Schindler (Co-founder, CEO and CIO of Castlefield Associates). This incredibly rich and nuanced conversation touched on themes that included: Who is “on the other side” of trades and investment strategies – persistent wealth transfers that lead to positive utility for both parties, with no “willing losers” Crowded and anti-crowded trades – drilling into the reflexive nature of markets What leads to crowding – structural and behavioral reasons, along with naturally-long players Why alternative risk premia (aka investment factors) have become shockingly crowded, and where investors might find blue ocean in the space Behavior doesn’t manifest in a vacuum – why the efficient market hypothesis is naturally at odds with human synchronization Alpha in traditional investments implies being early and/or different Social media, riot theory and the emergent phenomenon of crowds The ultimate CIO’s dilemma – where do we go from here? The moral hazard trade – governments, central banks, and self-fulfilling prophecies A basket of call options is always preferable to a call option on a basket We also covered some of the underlying reasons for market synchronization, how many steps ahead of the crowds are likely to lead to profitable trades, and much more. This episode contains more nuggets of wisdom than we could count and is certainly worth saving for future reference. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.    

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion and author, dives into the complex world of decision-making. She shares her academic journey in cognitive science, drawing parallels between poker strategies and investment decisions. The conversation highlights biases like the Dunning-Kruger effect and the sunk cost fallacy, while exploring the importance of cognitive flexibility and diverse perspectives. Annie also reflects on the value of knowing when to quit, reshaping how we perceive success and failure.

How we can prepare for every investment scenario. We discuss: Risk Parity and Futures Markets Leverage and Value Diversification Outsourcing Expertise Integrating Asset Classes to Maximize Returns

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. This week we were joined by Brandon Caruana and Brian Tang, cofounders of Cayman-based Cartan Group, a consulting firm that specializes in blockchain technology solutions. The two combine for a deep and broad knowledge base of the emerging digital asset space, which made for a fascinating and wide-ranging conversation that included topics such as: The full ‘crypto stack’ – core networks and their multiple layers Block sizes and transaction speeds – features or bugs? Proof of work vs proof of stake – validation methods and relative merits Energy costs, algorithm rules and security Trade-offs between different blockchains and layers – what problems are they trying to solve? Why base layers are always more secure than the stack Why Bitcoin is the asset-equivalent of a duck-billed platypus Asset-backed coins and varying collaterals for stable coins We also discussed the attractive features of the Algorand protocol, Helium and ‘proof of space’, and the generational divide between living in the analog and digital realms. The conversation devolved into philosophical musings on Artificial Intelligence and techno-utopia (and at times dystopia), a future of abundance and the pursuit of passions and callings, which left us with the ultimate question: is AI going to eat, rule or serve the world? Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.    

How can we manage for scenarios when Liquidity evaporates? We discuss: The mechanics of a Liquidity Shock The Fed and the Long Volatility Gap Diversification, Tail Hedge Protection and Theta Bleed Dennis Rodman and the Long Vol Trade Yield, Growth and Inflation

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. Our guest this week was Robert Cantwell, founder and CIO of Upholdings, the first hedge fund in the US to be converted into an ETF. His career arc, beginning on the institutional side of the business and then actively seeking out more experience as a business operator, armed him with the flexibility of both mindset and strategy to embrace disruptive new trends. The conversation included: The differences between building a company and managing money Why ETFs, the modern vehicles, aren’t yet wholly embraced as the premium vehicle Size matters – margins vs scalability The future is unconstrained by geography or time-zones (and probably lives on the blockchain) The tradeoffs between a nimble portfolio and tax implications Doing your homework – speak to the five people that know the most about a given company or topic (yes, much easier said than done) Time arbitrage – the best alpha you can have is a longer investment horizon than most market participants We also discussed the time-varying nature of the market’s fear over specific industries and investment categories, seizing the opportunity provided by low rates and volatility spikes, and why the US government’s “business model” is fundamentally flawed. Robert also shared a couple of stories from his experience working with Bono Vox, as well as a take on U2 that you would probably never expect. Thank you for watching and listening. See you next week.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.    

This is GestaltU from ReSolve Asset Management where we debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.   The Crypto space is gaining more interest every day. David Fauchier is a Portfolio Manager and allocator at Nickel Digital Asset Management, with eight years of experience in the digital asset space. Prior to joining Nickel, David was CIO of Cambrial Capital, a London based fund of funds, which specialized in sourcing and selecting market neutral managers in the digital asset space. He also sits on the Advisory Board of Global Digital Finance, an industry membership body engaging policy makers and regulators to advocate for industry best practice in cryptoassets.   On this episode we discuss:   The history of money regimes The cottage industry and new definition of “Market Neutral“ Contrasting allocation criteria for digital vs traditional managers Fund Managers and “The Five Aces“ Paranoid Cowboys The plumbing of fund management The three approaches to Crypto investing Cumulative “IQ Points“   As an addendum, we were able to debrief with David on the evening of the May 19th crypto liquidation event to hear first-hand how institutional traders experienced the event in real-time.   This was a wide-ranging conversation as David provided in depth insight into the paths taken during the current evolution of Crypto and where he feels it may lead us from here.   We hope you enjoy this informative interview.

This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global*. And in the blink of an eye, a year went by. In the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, we recorded a conversation on the global investment landscape in the wake of competing narratives and heightened uncertainty. The Pandemic Portfolio episode paved the way for what would become ReSolve Riffs, our ‘happy hour’ conversation on investment (and sometimes other) topics. Forty-seven episodes later, we looked back at this first year, the lessons we learned and what we might expect going forward: Global Macro – the all-encompassing theme and ‘elemental soup’ of investment decisions Inflation, reflation and the commodities boom The role of the US dollar Guardians of the narrative Equities – ‘beta vortex’, gamification and continued FOMO markets Volatility, convexity and tail-protection Major trends on the horizon – ESG, VR and the awesome power of blockchain technology We also revisited worthy episodes that might have been overlooked, including those that explored behavioral biases, market psychology or were just downright entertaining. Towards the end, reminiscing gave way to forecasting, as we speculated on the evolving fields of AI and gene-editing and how they might impact the world in the coming years.   Thank you for being a part of this incredible first year. We hope it’s the first of many. See you next week.   *ReSolve Global refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.

How can we move from Factor Beta to Alpha? We discuss: Swensen, Yale and aligning incentives The cycles of factor investing Machine learning, the Bias/Variance trade off and Alpha Ensembles Sustainable Alpha through continuous Innovation