FICC Focus

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by the Founder and CIO of Emso Asset Management, Mark Franklin, and the co-deputy CIO, Jens Nystedt. The guests share their outlook for emerging markets in the wake of Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging and the war in Ukraine.

Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss algorithmic trading and increase in electronic tool usage in the municipal industry, with guests Marty Mannion and Matt Schrager from TD Securities.

In this inaugural Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower.The two discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Global Creditors Tempted to Lean In After $5 Trillion in Losses. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Jersey and Sassower also discuss one of the risk higher yields will post to returns, but Jersey notes that the path matters, suggesting higher yields may be a near-term risk, while longer term an economic slowdown is more likely. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments in the distressed debt markets. Topics include where we are in the distressed debt credit cycle, Incora's new financing and debt exchange, Toys R Us litigation, AMC's foray into gold mining and Exela Technologies' array of capital structure maneuvers.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu.The trio discuss their report “Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization,” in which they note the dollar is likely to remain the dominant reserve currency, but regional trade blocks may form. Childe-Freeman highlights the challenges for the euro to overtake to dollar, such as lack of fiscal and banking union within Europe. Chiu suggests that Chinese financial markets need to mature further for the yuan to greatly increase its use in international transactions, but notes the yuan could reach FX reserve levels similar to the pound sterling or Japanese yen.Mega FX Trends: Regionalization vs. De-Dollarization: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/R8IMK9T0AFBB

In this Credit Chat edition, Robert Schiffman is joined by BI credit analysts Jeroen Julius, Jody Lurie, Spencer Cutter and Mike Holland to discuss the risks, and potential rewards, a broad swath of issuers across banking, energy, healthcare and leisure as inflation rises, war rages in Ukraine and pandemic headwinds/tailwinds persist.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Blaise Antin, Managing Director & Head of Sovereign Research at TCW Group. Antin shares his outlook for emerging-markets following Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine. From rising geopolitical risk to global monetary policy tightening, emerging-market debt performance should remain volatile.

Months long spikes in rate volatility has adversely impacted the municipal market in 2022. One of the positives to come of this sea change is that credit may start to be re-priced back into the municipal market. That could impact high yield moreso than investment grade credits. These are among the issues discussed by BI Senior U.S. Municipal Strategist Eric Kazatsky and guests John V. Miller from Nuveen and Bloomberg's Amanda Albright.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos.Wong and Jersey discuss their views on what's next for the Federal Reserve after it raised interest rates by 25 bps. Wong notes she was surprised by the hawkishness of the Fed's dot plot, while Jersey was surprised by Chairman Jerome Powell's mention that details of asset runoff would appear in the minutes of the meeting. In the Fun Fed Fact segment, Manolatos reviews the developments of the dot plot and suggests that two members likely moved down their long term neutral federal funds rate expectation.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert contemplate how long the lull in distressed may last as analogs in the past may offer an answer. The two also discuss how the Russia-Ukraine war may impact on distressed supply, Revlon, and Diamond Sports' recent exchange offer.