FICC Focus

Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discusses with BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel the first up month for distressed in 2022. Bloomberg distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins the call to present the interview she and Brendel conducted with Bill Derrough, Moelis & Company's Global Co-Head of the Capital Structure Advisory (6:07). BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku joins the panel to share her thoughts on Revlon as well as 3M's and Johnson & Johnson's recent mass tort Chapter 11 cases. (1:07:14). Wrapping up the call is a discussion on the abrupt collision between Crypto and Chapter 11.

If Bloomberg Economics is right at the Federal Reserve hikes to 5%, the two-year Treasury yield should be near 4% and the Treasury yield curve would be more inverted, notes Bloomberg Intelligence.In this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist. Wong discusses why she thinks the Federal Reserve wasn’t as dovish as the market thought, and why additional interest rate hikes may be in the cards even after a soft 2Q GDP print. She details the BE version of the Taylor Rule and her belief that it’s superior to more traditional models. In the Fun Fed Facts segment, Manolatos quips that the Fed’s statement is now 268 words, but could get somewhat shorter over time. Jersey jests that the statement length and the size of the Fed’s balance sheet have been broadly correlated. The strategists briefly discuss the statement as a communications tool in different regimes.

In this second edition of All Options Considered, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Bloomberg radio host Caroline Hepker and Co-Head of Derivatives Strategy at Susquehanna International Group, Chris Murphy, to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape of the bond market to S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

In this Credit Chat edition, Joel Levington, Global Head of Credit Research, Daniel Fan, Senior China Real Estate Analyst and Pri De Silva, Senior Asia Financial Institutions Analyst join Robert Schiffman to share their views on downgrade recession risk for US industrials, the impact of potential “boycotts” on China property value and limited financial risk for the Chinese banking system.A slowdown in growth is unlikely to affect China’s banking system, avoiding a 2008-like crisis, yet the country’s real estate sector may become further depressed. In contrast, despite over $150 billion of industrial bonds at risk of downgrade, recession fears in the US could be overblown. Following GE’s decision to separate in multiple stand-alone entities, 3M is following suit, with potentially Danaher not far behind, scenarios that may be beneficial for all parts of the capital structure.

In this edition of Masters of the Muniverse Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright are joined by New York State Comptroller, Thomas Dinapoli. We cover such topics as the recovery of the State and New York City from the worst of the pandemic, tackling pension returns in a volatile environment, challenges ahead for State finances and the debate over best baseball teams.

In our fourth FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on the topic of FX valuation, with particular interest on whether the U.S. Dollar may be overvalued.Our FX Strategists look into their updated BEER, fair value model and assess whether the dollar may be overvalued vs its G10 peers.

The yield curves in the US and Canadian dollar could invert more than any cycle since the early 1980s and the German government curve might not invert at all, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Strategists.In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Huw Worthington, BI Chief European Rates Strategist and Angelo Manolatos, BI US and Canadian Rates Strategist to talk about current inflation, the central bank and the differences and similarities between recent and coming interest rate moves. Angelo kicks off the podcast reviewing Canada’s 1% interest rate increase on July 13 and his view for additional hikes. Huw discusses why the ECB has been somewhat behind other central banks in raising policy rates. As the show was being recorded, the euro-dollar exchange rate moved through parity to 0.9966 generating a conversation about currencies to end the show

In this Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower and Bloomberg ESG Index head Chris Hackel.Sassower and Jersey discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Don't Sleep on 60-40 as Fixed Income Return Forecasts Rebound. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Sassower notes that $9 trillion of market cap has been destroyed during the past year's selloff. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns. Hackel discusses shifts in client interest for ESG index product, and notes some of the trends in that asset growth for ESG product, particularly after the explosion of equity ESG funds.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by Cate Ambrose, Chief Executive Officer of the Global Private Capital Association. Ambrose shares her outlook for EM private equity, with a focus on the sectors, countries and opportunities capturing interest from institutional investors across the globe.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel, and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert discuss the ongoing surge in distressed debt and how long it may last; Marathon Asset Management's Bruce Richards shares his distressed market views with Bloomberg News distressed debt reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon (6:30); Phil, Noel, and Eliza are then joined by BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku, who details material risks to Citibank's potential bankruptcy claims against Revlon and TPC Group noteholders' priority spat.