What's Next For Markets

In this episode we discuss the market trends and events from the first half of 2025. Joined by Emily Needell, Deputy Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, the conversation covers the market's responses to policy changes, such as tariffs and deregulation, and the broad economic data trends this year. They highlight the v-shaped recovery and the bifurcation seen across different sectors and factors, indicating a mixed recovery. Emily also provides insight into future market expectations, emphasizing the importance of quality and balanced investment strategies amid continuing uncertainties. The discussion ends with a focus on the risks posed by rising oil prices and ongoing high tariff levels.

In today’s episode, we discuss the ongoing uncertainty in global markets and reflect on the events from the past five years, including COVID-19, inflation, interest rates, geopolitical and their compounded effects on market volatility. In the episode, we provide insights into how investors can position amidst these uncertainties by focusing on companies with robust fundamentals and macro resilience. Despite the volatility and unpredictability, they emphasize the importance of not reacting impulsively to macro fears and maintaining a well-balanced portfolio.

In this episode, Don Schneider Deputy Head of U.S. Policy at Piper Sandler helps us unravel the ongoing political volatility impacting the markets. We discuss the significant topic of the budget reconciliation bill, detailing its current status, timeline for passage, and the key components it entails including tax cuts, spending cuts, and the consequential impacts on the fiscal outlook and growth trajectory. In the episode we address clients' concerns about the new fiscal trajectory, and the interaction between the budget bill and Trump's ongoing tariff policies, assessing their combined effects on growth and treasury issuance. The podcast also covers potential Senate amendments and the risk of the bill not passing, alongside the potential policy focus for investors post-passage. Additionally, we delve into the retaliatory Section 899 tax on foreign multinationals, elaborating on its implications and underlying motivations.

In this episode, Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins hosts Michael and Steven to discuss the transformative journey and mission behind 42 Macro. Darius shares his background in Wall Street investment research and highlights the company's unique approach to providing equal access to high-quality investment insights for both institutional and retail investors. He delves into the challenges of navigating various investor profiles, the importance of continuous education, and the evolution of his systematic investment process. The discussion also touches on the importance of considering fiscal policy, cryptocurrencies, and the macroeconomic landscape's impact on investment strategies. The episode offers a deep dive into how 42 Macro aims to democratize access to top-tier investment research, and sheds light on Darius's personal journey and professional pivots.

In this episode, we discuss the recent movements in the market amid ever-changing political narratives. We delve into the factors influencing valuations, including interest rates, inflation, and macroeconomic data. The conversation also covers the impact of recent policy changes—such as Trump’s fluctuating tariffs on the EU—and how they contribute to market volatility.We examine the current state of the S&P 500, highlighting elevated multiples supported by favorable conditions like low energy prices and high profit margins. With a focus on earnings, we explore growth projections for both large-cap and small-cap companies, along with the varying economic conditions affecting different sectors.The episode also addresses ongoing interest rate narratives and potential market outcomes based on earnings and valuation multiples. Lastly, we outline key upcoming data points and events to watch, including consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and GDP data, as well as potential policy impacts from the White House.

In this episode, we delve into recent market movements following tariff announcements and pauses. The discussion covers the sharp decline and subsequent recovery of the S&P 500, highlighting sector-specific performance and the varying recovery trajectories of different market segments. The episode also covers broader economic concerns, including credit card delinquency rates, inflation, and consumer demand, emphasizing the importance of high-quality and balanced portfolios amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainties. Please see our episode notes on our website whatsnextformarkets.com for charts discussed in today’s show.

In this episode, we talk with Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves, about the significant shifts and challenges in global supply chains, with a particular focus on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical events. Craig outlines the evolution of supply chains, the effects of the U.S.-China trade war, and the broader ramifications of tariffs on global trade and logistics. He discusses potential shortages in certain goods and the adaptability of supply chains in response to these disruptions. The conversation also explores the possibility of a surge in freight demand if a resolution to the trade conflict is reached.

In this episode, we discuss the eventful month of April in the markets, highlighting the resurgence of the S&P 500 and the significant influence of policy shifts on market dynamics. The episode delves into the impact of tariff-related rhetoric, the effect of proposed tax cuts, and the ongoing balance between sentiment and fundamental data. We cover the importance of maintaining a balanced investment approach and what data to watch. Make sure to tune in next week for insights from Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves, on the tariff impact on the supply chain.

In this episode of What's Next for Markets, Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, and Josh Rogin, Lead Global Security Analyst at Washington Post Intelligence, delve into the ongoing market volatility driven by shifting policies and geopolitical dynamics. They discuss the breakdown of traditional silos between Wall Street, Washington, and Silicon Valley, the impact of U.S.-China relations on global markets, and the internal dynamics of the Trump administration. The conversation highlights the intersection of politics and financial markets, shedding light on the intricate power struggles and economic strategies that could shape future market trends.Josh Rogin is Lead Global Security Analyst at Washington Post Intelligence. Since 2016, Josh has served as a columnist for the Global Opinions section of the Washington Post. He is also the author of Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century (Mariner Books).Previously, Josh has covered foreign policy and national security for Bloomberg View, Newsweek, The Daily Beast, Foreign Policy magazine, Congressional Quarterly, Federal Computer Week magazine, and Japan’s Asahi Shimbun.  Josh has been recognized with the Interaction Award for Excellence in International Reporting and as a Finalist for the Livingston Award for Young Journalists. He has also received journalism fellowships from the Knight Foundation, the East-West Center, and the National Press Foundation. Josh holds a BA in international affairs from the George Washington University and studied at Sophia University in Tokyo, Japan. He lives in Washington, DC Find more information about WP Intelligence here:https://demo.wpintelligence.com/Find more about Josh here:https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshrogin/https://x.com/joshroginhttps://www.instagram.com/joshrogin/

In this episode, Stephen and Emily discuss the current state of small cap equity investing. Small cap equities have underperformed their larger cap equity counterparts for nearly five years. We explore the factors contributing to this trend, including higher interest rates, slowing economic growth, and recent tariff news. Despite current challenges, the conversation highlights potential positive catalysts that could improve the outlook for small caps, emphasizing their role in a diversified portfolio and the importance of focusing on quality and stability within the small cap space.