The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd is joined by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, to discuss the damaging effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade war on the U.S. economy.Chuck opens the episode by framing the nation’s economic struggles as entirely self-inflicted, warning against political pressure on the Federal Reserve, and explaining why the consequences of current policy decisions could take years to reverse.Mark Zandi then joins to share his economic risk assessment, explore why markets failed to anticipate the trade war, and project the level of fallout the U.S. economy could face in the coming months and years.They break down why Trump’s push to reshore American manufacturing is unlikely to succeed, how China could emerge as the real winner of the trade war, and why troubling signals from the bond market spell concern for the broader economy.Zandi also outlines the risks of firing Fed Chair Jay Powell, explains why the trade war is a lose-lose scenario, and discusses why government intervention may be far less effective in responding to a self-inflicted economic crisis.Finally, Chuck wraps up with listener questions in the Ask Chuck segment.Don’t forget to like and subscribe to The Chuck ToddCast!Timeline:0:00 Introduction0:30 Why Chuck wanted to have Mark Zandi on the show1:30 We could have a man made economic disaster on our hands3:00 Pressuring the fed to lower interest rates is a bad idea5:15 Immigration has been a boon, not a negative for America7:00 Trade has helped America have a higher standard of living than anywhere else8:00 Rebuilding will take years8:45 Trump administration has been a mess11:55 Mark Zandi joins the show 12:55 What is Moody's Analytics? 15:55 How is a country's political system factored into economic risk assessments? 17:15 War gaming the trade war 19:10 Why didn't markets price in the trade war? 21:10 Tariffs in Trump 1.0 were more damaging than people realize due to pandemic. 22:55 When will the tariff impacts show up?24:25 Are any companies reshoring manufacturing due to tariffs? 26:10 How many companies are going to do whatever it takes to get an exemption? 27:25 Consumers and corporations are already changing their spending decisions 28:25 Government cuts are self defeating 29:55 How will this affect China's economy? 32:55 Will the EU spurn the US in favor of China? 34:25 Nixing the TPP was a mistake 35:40 What does the health of the bond market tell us? 37:10 We're in a crisis 38:10 How does this affect financing our debt? 39:10 What would stabilize the market? 39:55 What would happen if he fired fed chair Jay Powell?42:40 How similar is the current situation to the 1920's-30's? 45:25 US received more pushback from other countries in the 20's-30's 46:40 Which countries are most vulnerable to the trade war? 48:55 This is a lose-lose for everyone 49:55 In an emergency are the only choices inflation or recession? Which is preferable? 52:25 Government intervention will be less viable because government caused the crisis53:25 Chuck’s thoughts on conversation with Mark Zandi54:20 Ask Chuck - Will Trump’s trade war become the new normal or just a phase?55:55 Tariffs are a tool, and shouldn’t be used for everything57:30Trump’s goal is to replace income taxes with tariff revenue59:55 How can citizens not be part of the problem when it comes to hyperpartisan media?1:00:30 Diversifying your media diet is important1:04:45 If tariffs cause a severe recession, could Trump issue an EO to postpone the midterm elections?1:07:00 Trump can’t waive a magic wand and postpone elections(Timestamps vary based on advertisements)

Chuck Todd is joined by Benjamin Wittes, editor-in-chief of Lawfare, to break down the widespread legal violations committed by the Trump administration during Donald Trump’s first three months in office.Chuck opens the episode by underscoring the gravity of the moment and why Trump appears to show little respect for the law or the authority of the courts.Ben Wittes then joins the conversation to discuss the constitutional amendments the administration may have violated, whether Trump is defying Supreme Court rulings, and what a potential legal showdown over his immigration policies could look like.They examine the administration’s targeting of law firms and universities, where institutional pressure could serve as a check on executive overreach, and whether lawsuits filed by state attorneys general stand a chance in court.Finally, they unpack Trump’s use of executive orders against his critics, why the U.S. is losing its reputation as a global “beacon of freedom,” and Ben shares one reason he still holds onto a sense of optimism.0:00 First 90 days of the Trump administration has been tumultuous 1:45 Congress is sitting on its hands2:45 The administration is slowing down routine investigations 4:00 This is a dangerous moment for the country5:30 Trump is “flooding the zone”8:15 There are legal ways to handle deportations but Trump isn’t interested9:30 They’ve violated amendments four through nine11:30 Trump left Biden a legal quagmire over the border, but Biden didn’t handle it well12:30 Prices will rise in the next 60-90 days 14:00 Incompetence has defined Trump’s administration thus far15:00 Administration is trending toward monarchy 16:45 Lindsey Graham has gone radio silent18:55 Benjamin Wittes joins the show! 21:10 Trump is violating multiple constitutional amendments 23:30 Is Trump violating the Supreme Court ruling? 25:55 Did the Supreme Court water down their ruling? 27:05 All 9 justices agreed on the premise 28:05 What would satisfy the court's order to "facilitate" the return of Abrego Garcia? 29:40 If Trump asked for the prisoner back, Bukele wouldn't say no 30:45 The White House is brazenly violating court orders 32:10 The administration is extorting law firms 36:45 How will Harvard's decision to fight back affect them? 38:35 Is the administration going out of their way to pick fights? 39:55 They're creating criminal impunity for allies 40:45 Administration is using civil litigation to target enemies 41:55 The government will pay more in damages than money saved by DOGE45:00 John Roberts is issuing rulings meant to avoid confrontation with Trump 46:25 SCOTUS justices are aware Trump is flaunting their ruling 48:45 Trump is putting tremendous stress on his own party 49:25 Are Trump's actions uniting SCOTUS against him? 52:25 What to make of the three liberal justices putting out a press release? 54:55 How alarmed are the six conservative justices? 56:05 Expectations for California's tariff lawsuit? 58:55 The president has civil immunity from defamation lawsuits 1:01:15 Targeting Krebs and Taylor are two of the most egregious acts so far 1:05:25 Trump 2.0 is an entirely different proposition 1:06:55 What authoritarian model does Trump most emulate? 1:07:55 Ben projected "Trump and Vance betrayed the country" on the Washington monument1:10:55 The beacon of freedom has been turned off1:12:25 Ben's hammock studio 1:14:15 Administration is targeting people the public doesn't care much about 1:16:05 The goal is to stop it from getting worse1:18:03 Showdown with SCOTUS looming?1:19:30 Chuck’s Nats rant - Fix the bullpen!(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

Jeff Morley, founder of JFK Facts and a seasoned expert on the JFK assassination, joins Chuck Todd to dissect the latest revelations from newly released government documents. They discuss the pervasive public distrust that conspiracy theories thrive on and the government's attempts at secrecy regarding crucial records. Morley shares insights on Lee Harvey Oswald's mysterious ties to the CIA and the implications of recent document releases. Their conversation challenges the official narrative and raises intriguing questions about what remains hidden in the shadows surrounding this historic event.

Ian Bremmer, a renowned geopolitical expert and founder of Eurasia Group, joins to dissect how Trump's aggressive foreign policy reshapes global power dynamics. He delves into the unintended consequences of Trump's tariffs, suggesting they may bolster Xi Jinping's position. The conversation highlights the rise of anti-American sentiment abroad and the economic fallout likely hitting red states hardest. There’s a compelling discussion on the future of U.S.-China relations and the precarious status of nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Joining for a deep dive into media dynamics is McKay Coppins, a staff writer at The Atlantic and author of 'Growing Up Murdoch.' He unpacks the familial and business dramas within the Murdoch dynasty, drawing striking parallels to HBO's 'Succession.' The conversation touches on Fox News' influence on American politics, its future under Murdoch's children, and the impact of potential NFL broadcasting losses. Coppins also discusses Trump's tariff changes and how these political moves could shape the landscape for both the Murdochs and the Trump family.

Marc Caputo, Senior White House Reporter for Axios, joins to dissect the evolving landscape of Trump's governance. They discuss how past guardrails are missing in Trump's potential second term and the fallout from the disastrous tariff rollout, with Howard Lutnick likely facing the blame. Caputo reveals how Trump can no longer blame Biden for economic troubles and explores Trump's targeting of whistleblowers. Additionally, they examine the shifting loyalties within Trump's circle and hint at looming controversies in Florida politics.

The discussion kicks off with Trump's surprising move to pause tariffs, revealing his reliance on wealthy donors. It then shifts to the seismic impact of the O.J. Simpson trial on media, showing how profit motives overtook journalistic integrity. The conversation highlights local journalism's vital role in countering partisanship and fostering informed citizens. Plus, insights into the Democratic landscape during the 2016 election hint at ongoing gender biases that challenge female candidates in politics. Tune in for listener questions and more!

Tara Palmeri, an independent journalist formerly with Puck and Politico, discusses the evolving media landscape and her journey into independent journalism. She emphasizes the importance of authenticity over polish in digital news. The conversation touches on bias in reporting, the necessity of rebuilding local news, and the impact of the Trump administration's adversarial stance towards the media. Tara also shares insights on her relatives' perspectives on the Ukraine war and the unsettling embrace of Russia by the American right.

Don Bacon, a Republican Congressman from Nebraska's 2nd district and a moderate voice within his party, dives into the fallout from Trump's tariffs and their dire impact on local economies. He discusses the potential for a split within the Republican Party due to differing economic ideologies. The conversation also covers the importance of U.S. moral clarity in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, concerns over military leadership changes, and the broader implications of recent political shifts. Bacon also reflects on the necessity for Congress to maintain control over tariff powers.

Chuck Todd analyzes the sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, discussing their historic impact. He argues that free trade has made America safer and more prosperous and predicts significant political backlash for Trump and Republicans. He outlines key political developments to watch in the coming months, highlighting an opportunity for Democrats to regain control in Washington. He also examines how Trump’s promised tax cuts are now at risk, and why his presidency will be even more challenging.Timeline:0:00 Introduction3:20 America has benefitted massively from global trade 4:20 The last time we had a similar tariff regime, it led to WW25:48 What political fallout will come from the tariffs?6:32 Could congress take tariff authority back?8:25 What to watch for the next 3-6 months9:18 Trump faces huge blowback from older voters10:18 The tariffs will tank Trump’s approval rating11:52 Elected Republicans will be vulnerable13:36 Trump has no guardrails15:13 Alienating allies and partners will be incredibly damaging16:39 The Republican party is courting disaster19:46 Trump’s tax cuts are in jeopardy21:05 Getting rid of the tariffs won’t solve the problem21:50 If Democrats win the house, congress will take the tariffs keys away from the mad king