This Means War

Joann Robertson, a seasoned logistics expert with deep roots in both military and industry, dives into the crucial yet often overlooked role of logistics in warfare. She emphasizes the need for effective inventory management as a cornerstone of military effectiveness. The discussion reveals the pitfalls of decentralized decision-making, advocating for data-driven strategies to improve stockpiling. With insights drawn from the US Marine Corps, Joann highlights the importance of communication and collaboration in transforming military supply chains and enhancing readiness.

Western political and military leaders seem to be doing a lot of hard talking about military capability these days, yet people and talent issues seem to be rather lower on their agenda than the excitement over technological 'silver bullets'. Poor recruiting and retention rates make planned force designs look increasingly untenable, something which no amount of technology is going to solve in the short to medium term. One might wonder, then, why militaries seem rather agnostic about  recruiting from only a small minority of the population when some simple changes could radically alter that dynamic. Is it a lack of will or just an ambivalence to the issues?

Special Forces in contemporary warfare will be expected to conduct operations ‘By, with and through’: enabling local partners to fight against common foes. Back in 2015, elements of the UAE Presidential Guard deployed to Aden in Yemen in an attempt to forestall and turn back a seemingly inevitable Houthi annexation. It could have been the decisive moment in a campaign that had seen the Houthi rebels take over control of almost the entire country. On 13 April 2015, 8 operators were helicast off shore and hours later were deep in a battle that was to last well into June. It was not a one-sided action by any means: there were several serious tactical failures and defeats of local forces by the Houthis, any of which could have spelled the end of the mission. Yet UAE leadership doggedly doubled down each time and the results speak for themselves. Peter talks to Dr Michael Knights about the battle, the decision-making, and the logistics of this important battle. A case study in the realities of SF ‘By, With and Through’ missions.

Dr. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUCI specializing in land warfare, sheds light on the intricate strategy of attrition in modern conflicts. He dives into historical perspectives, linking battles from the 19th Century to current situations like Ukraine. The discussion highlights the human element in leadership, where treating soldiers as individuals is vital. Watling also underscores the significance of battlefield geometry and the delicate balance commanders must strike between executing goals and managing personnel safety.

Why is winning a war so hard? According to Dr Mike Martin, realism seems to be missing in the formation of strategy to fight wars. Evidence to support this abounds from Russia and the West over the past 25 years, and there is an interesting conversation to be had about why that is. Peter talks to Mike about the other intangibles of war so often overlooked – particularly logistics, morale and training. As a prelude and insight into Mike’s new book “How to Fight a War”, this episode is bound to elicit some comment: it is designed to stimulate some of those important conversations.

Peter talks to Professor Katarzyna Zysk from IFS in Oslo about Russian military AI development, from the core reasons it is being pursued to the implementation plans and their maturity index of outputs. Most worrying perhaps is the discussion on ethical limitations (or lack thereof) being imposed on developers in Russia, whether in the realm of Lethal Autonomous Weapons or in experimentation with humans outside the decision loops. While many commentators have written off the Russian military following their performance in Ukraine over the past 12 months, this might well be premature. The inevitable recapitalisation of Russia’s military will place AI and Emerging and Disruptive Technologies at the core of a new Russian force design. Taking that into account now is essential in de-risking Western decisions about the future.

Strategic communications guru Whit Mason discusses Ukraine's successful information operations during Russia's invasion. They analyze Zelenskyy's messaging, global reactions to sanctions, and the importance of societal engagement in wartime efforts.

How have cyber conflicts played out between Russia and Ukraine? Over the last decade the idea of cyber war had been widely hailed as a horse/tank moment in warfare, perhaps more even: speeches were made about the cyber domain would have the ability to determine the future of battlefields, and to make armies, air forces and navies irrelevant. And Russia has always been noted to be be a Tier One cyber state, whereas Ukraine wasn't - certainly in February 2022. Peter talks to Rob Black at Wilton Park about how the cyber war played out over the first year of Russia's war on Ukraine - and why it failed to deliver what the cyber acolites promised. While political and military leaders have placed huge emphasis on the silver bullets that were supposed to be cyber weapons, the reality in Ukraine seems to have demonstrated something very different. The Gartner Hype curve of technology seems to have some home to roost.

Meeting the challenges of both conventional and irregular warfare requires mutually exclusive forces specialised in acting against each one. Peter talks to Dr Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at RUSI in London, about why a military force designed for conventional warfare is ineffective at irregular warfare; the verso also applies. There are a myriad of reasons - from embedded culture to training requirements - why this is the case, from formations and skills of Special Forces but also for signals, communication, command, aviation, and logistics. People and their approaches, as well as their networks, is the key factor however. Given that future adversaries are likely to employ both means (unconventional and conventional) to challenge the status quo, nations will need to either construct forces for each strategic approach they face, or specialise in one. Alternatively, states can try to do both with a single force structure and probably - judging on historical evidence, and some contemporary examples too - fail. In times increasing global tensions when autocracies are leaning towards the use of military force as a key lever of power, the decision facing political leaders is whether to fund their militaries or rely on the doctrine of hopeless optimism.

Peter talks to Ankit Panda from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace about all things North Korea, but specifically their nuclear missile programme. After a busy 2022, it appears as though Kim Jong-un’s hermit kingdom will continue a similar pace of testing and developments over the next 12 months – increasing further the risk of a clash on the peninsula. Add to that the changing nature of the relationships between Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing, and you will start to appreciate why the incoherence of the US policy dilemma for DPRK needs addressing.