The Art of Investing

Stuart Thompson, an economist known for his macroeconomic insights, joins the discussion to share his outlook for 2026. He highlights rising Japanese bond yields and the unwinding of the yen carry trade, emphasizing potential global impacts. The conversation dives into the risks of persistent inflation despite expectations of a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices. Political volatility in the US and UK is also analyzed as a significant market force. Overall, it’s a thought-provoking exploration of what investors should consider in the coming years.

Lee Freeman-Shor, a behavioral investor known for his insights into investor psychology, discusses the importance of recognizing losing behaviors like 'rabbits' and 'assassins' and the critical need to cut losses early. Meanwhile, Charles Hall, a market commentator, reveals the deep-rooted structural issues contributing to the long-term decline of the UK stock market. The conversation also touches on investment strategies, including when to emotionally detach from winners and the historical patterns of market behaviors.

In a festive atmosphere, the hosts dive into the current market challenges amidst a potential Santa Rally. They highlight the volatility in tech while noting a resurgence in commodities like gold and copper. Conversations about US market underperformance lead to insights on risk concentration and equity allocation strategies. The impact of AI on employment and consumer spending prompts intriguing debates, while listeners are offered valuable tips for year-end portfolio audits and adjustments. Expect lively discussions peppered with trading anecdotes!

Economist Stu Thompson joins the hosts to explore how recent Fed cuts and the return of quantitative easing could signal a Santa Rally. They discuss rising long-dated bond yields and what it means for inflation and future growth. The podcast highlights a fierce bidding war for Warner Bros and speculation around SpaceX's astronomical IPO. While big tech cools, smaller companies shine, provoking questions about market health. The team also analyzes employment data reliability and the potential impact of AI on jobs.

This week, the hosts tackle the wild swings in Bitcoin as a China clampdown shakes the crypto world. They discuss the dollar’s dip fueling a commodities surge, with silver hitting record highs and copper reaching new post-crash peaks. Japan's unexpected rate hike chatter raises questions about the upcoming Santa Rally, while US markets show resilience. The team makes a bold move to double their copper allocation, citing strong demand from EVs and energy transmission. A lively debate ensues on managing portfolio volatility and taking profits!

This week, the hosts dive into the UK Budget’s unexpected twists, sparking a lively debate on whether it truly supports growth or merely serves political interests. They explore market reactions, including the wobbling pound and volatile gilts. The chatter shifts to US market strength, the possibility of a Santa rally, and contrasting growth strategies between the US and UK. Tangled tax thresholds and hidden hikes come under scrutiny, while discussions about housing concerns and crypto's recent turbulence add to the mix.

🏆Enjoying the show? Cast your vote for us in the Good Money Guide Awards: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, for the most inside-Treasury Budget preview we’ve ever recorded.With Rachel Reeves’ first Budget just days away, Adam explains how decisions really get made — the politics, pressure, fiscal rules, OBR scrutiny and the moments where things nearly go off the rails.Meanwhile, markets have been wild:• Bitcoin drops 35% from the highs• Nvidia posts one of the biggest earnings beats in history• The Fed cools December cut expectations• Long gilts sell off on credibility worries• And Rich… turns fully bullishThis Week’s Highlights💥 Crypto Crash: Bitcoin down another 10%; record ETF outflows📈 Nvidia Surge: A huge quarter steadies the NASDAQ🏦 Fed Cuts on Hold: Shutdown delays key data🇬🇧 Gilt Volatility: Income-tax U-turn sends yields 30bp higher⚡ AI Power Rush: 10 new US nuclear reactors approved🥊 Portfolio Debate: Rich buys the dip; Spice agrees; CJ isn’t sure🎩 Fantasy Budget: Adam, CJ, Spice & Rich pitch their own BudgetsSpecial Guest - Adam SmithAdam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, reveals the real mechanics behind the Budget:📊 The Scorecard — every tax & spend decision in one spreadsheet🧮 Fiscal Rules — how they’re bent, stretched and stress-tested🏛️ OBR Checks — what survives scrutiny (and what doesn’t)🔥 Mini-Budget Lessons — why credibility beats headlines🔮 Next Week’s Budget — freezes, pension tweaks, revenue raisersPlus: the late-night calls, panic moments and political chaos behind every fiscal event.Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly performance: – 2.6%Total return since inception: +7.20%Top Performers:🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF – +1.07%🥈 Cash – +0.08%🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF – –0.13%Underperformers:🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF – –14.74%🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF – – 4.94%🇺🇸 iShares Russell 2000 ETF – – 4.27%Actions Taken:Adding to portfolio:+2.5% NASDAQ 100+2.5% VanEck Crypto ETFWhat You’ll LearnHow Budgets are really builtWhy credibility matters more than the policyWhich tax levers actually raise moneyWhat drives crypto deleveragingWhy AI infrastructure is a new macro themeHow markets price Budget moves instantlyWhy too much cash destroys long-term returns📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Vote for Us 🏆We’ve been nominated in the Good Money Guide Finfluencer Awards - if you’re enjoying the show, we’d love your support.Vote here: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.November Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25

Lee Freeman-Shor, a former fund manager and author of The Art of Execution, dives into the intriguing psychology behind investing. He discusses the five investor 'tribes'—Rabbits, Assassins, Hunters, Raiders, and Connoisseurs—and how their behaviors can drastically influence portfolio performance. Key topics include the importance of execution over stock picking, common pitfalls like holding onto losers, and the surprising truth about investor skill versus luck. Lee emphasizes adaptability, urging listeners to refine their strategies and focus on how they manage winning and losing positions.

Welcome to Episode 18 of The Art of Investing - brought to you by IG, the global investment platform.Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden, and Chris Fellingham take a trip through financial history to explore one of the most important questions facing the UK government right now: what happens when a budget goes wrong?With just weeks until Rachel Reeves delivers her first budget, the team looks back at past fiscal failures - from the 1976 IMF bailout to the Liz Truss “mini-budget” meltdown - and discusses what lessons markets (and investors) can learn from both.This Week’s Highlights💥 Crypto Correction: Bitcoin slides into a bear market, down 20% from its highs. The team unpack what a dip, correction, and bear market really mean - and why investors still “buy the dip.” 📉 AI Fatigue: Meta’s 17% post-earnings drop sparks debate over whether tech valuations are finally stretched. 🏦 Rate Cut Watch: The Bank of England holds at 4% in a tight 5-4 vote - but hints of a cut in December. 📊 Bonds & Bubbles: Deutsche Bank hedges AI exposure as echoes of 2008 resurface. 💷 Budget Breakdown: Why the upcoming UK budget could define the next decade - and the two moments in history that show what happens when fiscal policy goes off the rails.Portfolio SnapshotWeekly performance: -1.2%Total return since inception: +9.4%Top performers:🥇 Gold - +1%🇬🇧 FTSE 100 - +0.1% (helped by weaker sterling)💰 Cash position - held steadyUnderperformers:🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF - -4% (crypto slide)⚙️ Copper ETF - -4%⛏️ World Mining Trust - -3.5%Action Taken:DAX position (5%) sold, moving funds into cash to reduce overall equity exposure.Total cash & equivalents: 17.5%, providing flexibility for future corrections.What You’ll Learn:Market Jargon Explained: What defines a dip, correction, or crash - and why investors need to know the difference.Is AI the New Bubble? The team debate whether recent gains signal irrational exuberance or just strong fundamentals.Lessons from History:1976 IMF bailout - when UK debt and inflation forced an emergency rescue.2022 Truss mini-budget - how ignoring the bond market triggered chaos.Why the Gilt Market Matters: How confidence (or lack of it) in government borrowing drives rates, markets, and mortgage costs.📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.November Free Share Bundle:Grow your portfolio with IG. Invest £50 with IG and get a free share bundle worth between £40 and £200. Make your first investment into an ISA, GIA or SIPP account before the 30th November and benefit from Commission-Free Investing as well as 4% Variable Interest on Cash.  Other fees may apply, T&Cs found here or on ig.com/uk

Welcome to Episode 17 of The Art of Investing – brought to you by IG, the global investing platform.Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by special guest Chris Bowie, one of the UK’s leading bond managers, to demystify the world of corporate bonds - what they are, how they fit into a portfolio, and when they shine. As markets hit fresh highs, the team unpack the latest Fed rate cut, Trump’s “taco trade” tour of Asia, Nvidia’s record-breaking $5 trillion valuation, and why Japan’s bond market may just reshape global liquidity. Then, Bowie takes us deep into credit markets, from investment grade to high yield and explains why short-dated bonds might be today’s smartest income play.This Week’s Highlights:💵 Corporate Bonds: Understanding credit spreads, yields, and why timing matters.📊 Bull Market Lives On: Nvidia soars, Nasdaq climbs, and the FTSE hits new highs.🇯🇵 Japan’s Yield Curve Twist: What rising JGB yields mean for global money flows.🏛️ Fed Cuts Rates Again: Powell pushes back on December expectations.📉 Private Debt Watch: Why Bowie warns that illiquidity and opacity are rising risks🗳️ Budget Preview: Will Rachel Reeves cut the North Sea windfall tax and finally back growth?Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly Performance: +3.1 %Total Return Since Inception: +10.6 %Top performers:🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF +12.7 %🥉 WisdomTree Copper ETF +6.5 %📈 Invesco EQQQ Nasdaq-100 ETF +6.0 %🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF +5.9 %Underperformers:🇮🇳 iShares MSCI India ETF -0.3 % 🇬🇧Vanguard FTSE 250 -0.3 %What You’ll Learn:What corporate bonds are and how they differ from government debt.Why “short-dated investment grade” can deliver higher yield with low risk.How liquidity and transparency set public bonds apart from private credit.What “duration,” “spread,” and “Sharpe ratio” actually mean.How Rachel Reeves’ budget and UK tax policy could move the gilt market.Why the team still believes the bull market isn’t done yet.📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time. Disclaimer:This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice, financial planning guidance, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are for educational purposes only. Past performance is not an indication of future results.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.November Free Share Bundle:Grow your portfolio with IG. Invest £50 with IG and get a free share bundle worth between £40 and £200. Make your first investment into an ISA, GIA or SIPP account before the 30th November and benefit from Commission-Free Investing as well as 4% Variable Interest on Cash.  Other fees may apply, T&Cs found here or on ig.com/uk