The Art of Investing

This week, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham unpack one of the most volatile macro weeks of the year, from Japan’s bond market shock to Trump’s Davos comments, rising geopolitical tension, and a sharp shift in momentum across assets.With Japanese yields spiking to multi-decade highs, markets wobbling on Greenland headlines, and gold once again leading the leaderboard, the team debate whether this is a temporary scare… or the early warning signs of something bigger. Crucially, they also make a major portfolio decision, raising cash and reassessing risk after a strong run of returns.Expect macro depth, proper portfolio debate, and a real-time look at how professional investors react when markets move fast.This Week’s Highlights:🇯🇵 Japan Bond Shock40-year Japanese government bond yields spike, triggering global bond and equity volatility.🌍 Geopolitics ReturnsGreenland, NATO tensions and Trump’s Davos comments briefly rattle markets before a sharp relief rally.📉 Momentum RotatesGold and mining stocks surge while crypto and copper lag as capital chases safety and trend.🪙 Crypto vs GoldBitcoin slides while gold hits new highs, reigniting the “digital gold” debate.🏦 Central Bank PowerThe Bank of Japan draws a clear line in the sand, reminding markets who’s really in control.Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly performance: –0.7%Total return since inception: +15.5%Top Performers (WoW)🥇 iShares Physical Gold ETC: +4.83%🥈 BlackRock World Mining Trust: +2.54%🥉 iShares Core MSCI EM IMI ETF: +1.14%Underperformers (WoW)📉 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain Innovators ETF: –4.66%📉 WisdomTree Copper ETF: –4.15%📉 iShares MSCI India ETF: –3.49% Big Decisions This Week:🔄 Raising CashThe team reduce exposure to gold and US equities, moving 10% of the portfolio into cash to reassess risk after strong gains.💬 Live DebateShould profits be locked in after a big run, or is stepping aside the biggest risk of all?What You’ll Learn:✔️ Why Japan’s bond market matters far beyond Tokyo✔️ How central banks really control market stress✔️ Why momentum dominates during uncertain periods✔️ When raising cash is smart, and when it’s costly✔️ How professionals manage portfolios during fast-moving macro shocks📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insight and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Disclaimer:This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.January IncentiveMove your investment portfolio to IG and you’ll get up to £2,000 cashback. Simply open a general investment account, ISA, or SIPP by 30 January and get 1% cashback on your transferred investments.1% cashback on the total Qualifying Transfers initiated between 1 January and 30 January 2026The maximum payout is £2,000.Your capital is at risk.  New customers only. Offer valid until 30/01/2026 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📋T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/transfer-1-percent-cashback-jan-26

Frances Donald, Chief Economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, shares her insights on today’s financial landscape. She discusses how geopolitical tensions shape market dynamics, emphasizing slow-burning risks that many investors overlook. Donald also highlights the strong performance of commodities and the implications of inflation on growth. With a fresh perspective on unemployment and the impact of AI on youth jobs, she explains why traditional economic indicators may no longer apply. Prepare for a thought-provoking journey through the evolving economic environment!

The hosts kick off 2026 by discussing the delayed Santa Rally and its impact on global markets. The FTSE 100's psychological milestone of 10,000 is analyzed amidst UK fund outflows. Commodities, particularly gold and copper, are thriving as geopolitical tensions rise. Crypto's fragility highlights a volatile market sentiment. The team also explores the implications of Trump’s policies and global military dynamics on investment strategies, emphasizing the need for portfolio adjustments as they prepare for a potentially bumpy year ahead.

Stuart Thompson, an economist known for his macroeconomic insights, joins the discussion to share his outlook for 2026. He highlights rising Japanese bond yields and the unwinding of the yen carry trade, emphasizing potential global impacts. The conversation dives into the risks of persistent inflation despite expectations of a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices. Political volatility in the US and UK is also analyzed as a significant market force. Overall, it’s a thought-provoking exploration of what investors should consider in the coming years.

Lee Freeman-Shor, a behavioral investor known for his insights into investor psychology, discusses the importance of recognizing losing behaviors like 'rabbits' and 'assassins' and the critical need to cut losses early. Meanwhile, Charles Hall, a market commentator, reveals the deep-rooted structural issues contributing to the long-term decline of the UK stock market. The conversation also touches on investment strategies, including when to emotionally detach from winners and the historical patterns of market behaviors.

In a festive atmosphere, the hosts dive into the current market challenges amidst a potential Santa Rally. They highlight the volatility in tech while noting a resurgence in commodities like gold and copper. Conversations about US market underperformance lead to insights on risk concentration and equity allocation strategies. The impact of AI on employment and consumer spending prompts intriguing debates, while listeners are offered valuable tips for year-end portfolio audits and adjustments. Expect lively discussions peppered with trading anecdotes!

Economist Stu Thompson joins the hosts to explore how recent Fed cuts and the return of quantitative easing could signal a Santa Rally. They discuss rising long-dated bond yields and what it means for inflation and future growth. The podcast highlights a fierce bidding war for Warner Bros and speculation around SpaceX's astronomical IPO. While big tech cools, smaller companies shine, provoking questions about market health. The team also analyzes employment data reliability and the potential impact of AI on jobs.

This week, the hosts tackle the wild swings in Bitcoin as a China clampdown shakes the crypto world. They discuss the dollar’s dip fueling a commodities surge, with silver hitting record highs and copper reaching new post-crash peaks. Japan's unexpected rate hike chatter raises questions about the upcoming Santa Rally, while US markets show resilience. The team makes a bold move to double their copper allocation, citing strong demand from EVs and energy transmission. A lively debate ensues on managing portfolio volatility and taking profits!

This week, the hosts dive into the UK Budget’s unexpected twists, sparking a lively debate on whether it truly supports growth or merely serves political interests. They explore market reactions, including the wobbling pound and volatile gilts. The chatter shifts to US market strength, the possibility of a Santa rally, and contrasting growth strategies between the US and UK. Tangled tax thresholds and hidden hikes come under scrutiny, while discussions about housing concerns and crypto's recent turbulence add to the mix.

🏆Enjoying the show? Cast your vote for us in the Good Money Guide Awards: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, for the most inside-Treasury Budget preview we’ve ever recorded.With Rachel Reeves’ first Budget just days away, Adam explains how decisions really get made — the politics, pressure, fiscal rules, OBR scrutiny and the moments where things nearly go off the rails.Meanwhile, markets have been wild:• Bitcoin drops 35% from the highs• Nvidia posts one of the biggest earnings beats in history• The Fed cools December cut expectations• Long gilts sell off on credibility worries• And Rich… turns fully bullishThis Week’s Highlights💥 Crypto Crash: Bitcoin down another 10%; record ETF outflows📈 Nvidia Surge: A huge quarter steadies the NASDAQ🏦 Fed Cuts on Hold: Shutdown delays key data🇬🇧 Gilt Volatility: Income-tax U-turn sends yields 30bp higher⚡ AI Power Rush: 10 new US nuclear reactors approved🥊 Portfolio Debate: Rich buys the dip; Spice agrees; CJ isn’t sure🎩 Fantasy Budget: Adam, CJ, Spice & Rich pitch their own BudgetsSpecial Guest - Adam SmithAdam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, reveals the real mechanics behind the Budget:📊 The Scorecard — every tax & spend decision in one spreadsheet🧮 Fiscal Rules — how they’re bent, stretched and stress-tested🏛️ OBR Checks — what survives scrutiny (and what doesn’t)🔥 Mini-Budget Lessons — why credibility beats headlines🔮 Next Week’s Budget — freezes, pension tweaks, revenue raisersPlus: the late-night calls, panic moments and political chaos behind every fiscal event.Portfolio Snapshot:Weekly performance: – 2.6%Total return since inception: +7.20%Top Performers:🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF – +1.07%🥈 Cash – +0.08%🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF – –0.13%Underperformers:🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF – –14.74%🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF – – 4.94%🇺🇸 iShares Russell 2000 ETF – – 4.27%Actions Taken:Adding to portfolio:+2.5% NASDAQ 100+2.5% VanEck Crypto ETFWhat You’ll LearnHow Budgets are really builtWhy credibility matters more than the policyWhich tax levers actually raise moneyWhat drives crypto deleveragingWhy AI infrastructure is a new macro themeHow markets price Budget moves instantlyWhy too much cash destroys long-term returns📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance SlidesView the portfolio breakdown: here📧 Get in touch: theartofinvesting@ig.comSubscribe for weekly investing insights and to follow the live portfolio in real time.Vote for Us 🏆We’ve been nominated in the Good Money Guide Finfluencer Awards - if you’re enjoying the show, we’d love your support.Vote here: https://goodmoneyguide.com/awards/finfluencer-awards/DisclaimerThis podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.Your capital is at risk. The value of shares, ETFs and ETCs can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in.November Incentive – Get 5% cashback on your investments:Open a new account and invest a minimum of £50 by 31 December, and keep at least £50 invested until March.You’ll receive 5% cashback on your invested value from 21 November to 31 December (max payout £100).Your capital is at risk. New customers only.Offer valid until 31/12/2025 on ISA, GIA or SIPP accounts. T&Cs apply.📄 Full details & T&Cs: https://www.ig.com/uk/5-percent-cashback-nov-25