Curve Your Enthusiasm

Ian and Royce discuss their expectations for the upcoming Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, focusing on what the forecasts will look like and whether or not any adjustments to QE will be announced. Royce discusses the outlook for CPI, while Ian highlights some opportunities in real-return bonds.

Ian is joined by his colleague Jeremy Stretch this week, our Head of G10 FX Strategy. Jeremy discusses all aspects of Brexit, from the political climate to the yield curve to prospects for the GBP. Ian identifies some potential curve divergence between the UK and Canada, and ruminates on the merits of a relative CAD steepener versus GBP flattener.

Ian & Royce are back in the studio this week, discussing their interpretation of the Throne Speech and what it means for macro and rates. Royce talks about the sustainability of fiscal support, while Ian ruminates on what needs to happen for issuance risks to increase going forward.

Royce and Ian are reunited in the studio after a month apart. They provide their thoughts on the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, in particular why the Bank didn’t mention the Canadian dollar and what the inclusion of the word “calibrate” means for the future of QE. Royce outlines his view on why the Bank’s forward guidance is being misunderstood in the market, while Ian makes the point that rising issuance may have the same impact as a tapering of QE.

Ian is joined by Vivek Beri (Executive Director, Structured Rates Trading) as guest-host this week, discussing the Fed’s announcement at Jackson Hole and what it means for the curve. They also discuss recent developments in the CAD vol market, what the BoC inflation renewal means for CAD rates and, their favorite trades for the weeks ahead.

Ian Pollick and Craig Bell discuss why Canadian swap spreads have historically been so elevated and how QE may or may not change that going forward. Additionally, they discuss some of the major themes in CAD rates percolating beneath the surface, and how most of those themes point to a steeper yield-curve.

Royce Mendes interviews Barbara Zvan, who was a member of the Expert Panel on Sustainable Finance and has recently been appointed President and CEO of the newly established University Pension Plan, a jointly sponsored pension plan for Ontario’s university sector. Royce then breaks down the reasons Canada’s labour market might show early signs outperforming that of the US in next week’s employment readings, and discusses why it’s probably a prelude to each country’s labour market performances in the months to come.

Royce Mendes takes a second look at the Bank of Canada’s commitment to keep rates pinned down and finds an interesting twist that could prove significant for investors as the recovery gains steam. He also previews next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and the GDP data set to be released in both the US and Canada.

Ian Pollick and Royce Mendes discuss the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, implications from the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on the bond market, and delve into their view on the evolution of Canadian QE.

Royce breaks down what’s ahead now that there’s a price-tag for the federal government’s pandemic response. He also welcomes the Hon. Lisa Raitt to the program to share her expert analysis of the government’s Economic and Fiscal Snapshot.