Israel Update

Netanyahu's video message that called out the US on withholding arms from Israel succeeded – first the administration denied the facts, but then it opened the bureaucratic bottlenecks (see Mike's piece about this below). Few commentators, however, took note of the fact that there was a warning in that video – one which was later enhanced in Netanyahu's two major public statements this week. The war as the prime minister is now defining it, is a seven-front war with Iran. With a speech before a joint session of the two houses of congress scheduled for July 24, the administration must be worried that its Iran appeasement policy is in danger of being exposed. And all that, on the backdrop of the West's inability to fight wokeness, its autoimmune cultural disease. Mike and Gadi discuss the connection. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-italian-strike-israel-arms-shipments

The repeated attempts of the Biden administration to arrange a color revolution in Israel in order to topple Netanyahu's government are failing – partly because the Israeli "Resistance" is unable to muster more than a few thousand chronic Never-Bibi protestors. Israelis have no patience with people threatening to "paralyze the country" when so many are sending their sons and daughters to risk their lives in Gaza. Also: Gadi and Mike disagreed on whether IDF brass insubordination is becoming a real problem in Israel's ability to win the war.  

A bold rescue operation Nuseirat; Benny Gantz quits the war time coalition; a UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire and a hostage deal; steep escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, and – if all this is not enough – a looming crisis for the coalition over drafting of ultra-orthodox men to the IDF. Gadi and Mike untangle these strands and conclude that for now Netanyahu's coalition is not on the verge of collapse, despite the Biden administration's best efforts.

President Biden made a dramatic speech on Friday announcing an Israeli offer for a far-reaching hostage deal. Prime Minster Netanyahu's response at first made it seem like Biden was distorting Israel's position beyond recognition. It turned out that the truth behind the move was far more complicated. Mike and Gadi unpack the calculations of the different parties.Also in this episode: the North is burning.

A reservist soldier recorded a video addressing Prime Minister Netanyahu, and telling him that the army is behind him, but also calling on Minister of Security Gallant to resign if he is not determined to win this war, and that if he does not, the army will not follow him. The press filled with outrage against this "sedition." An investigation was promptly launched. Meanwhile, the newly elected leader of the tiny Labor Party, General Yair Golan, called on reservists not to report to duty until the government calls for new elections. 

A whirlwind week in Israeli politics: Ministers Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz delivered two ultimatums to prime minister Netanyahu, threatening to dissolve the cabinet they are both still members of. Both held independent talks with high American officials prior to the move. Did they coordinate with the Americans, or with each other? Is the government about to be dissolved? And how will international arrest warrants from The Hague, against Netanyahu and Gallant, play out in Israeli politics? Mike and Gadi suggest ways to connect the dots. 

Israel put its faith in building a small, Star Wars style, technological army. But that army was defeated on Oct. 7, by a Mad Max ragtag band of terrorists.Mike and Gadi discuss the failure of the IDF to adapt to this new Mad Max world. But in light of President Biden's threat to withhold weapons, Israel must not only change its military thinking, it also has to reform its war economics if it is to achieve what Mike and Can Kasapoglu call in a new piece in Tablet, "operational sovereignty." Also in this episode: has Joe Biden taken his anti-Israeli policy one step too far?

The international media – like much of the Never-Bibi Israeli media – told you a story about Hamas greenlighting a hostage deal, only to have their new position met with an Israeli incursion into Rafah. What actually happened is very far from that media tale. The US and Hamas have been negotiating over Israel's head, with the American making promises Israel can't afford to keep. When Prime Minister Netanyahu understood what was going on, he moved to intercept the dangerous move. Here's what happened behind the scenes. Mike and Gadi explain. Also: what you need to know about how tough politicians conduct policy, and what they can learn from the bouncers in Tel-Aviv's roughest bars. 

The Biden administration is pressing for an end to the war in a hostage deal, while working to topple Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It has many allies and tools in this effort: the threat to sanction an IDF unit, the looming specter of international arrest warrants from the Hague, the Israeli anti-Netanyahu press and, from within the cabinet, an attempt by Benny Gantz to push for accepting a near-surrender hostage deal. At the same time, the right flank of Netanyahu's coalition has issued an ultimatum: should such a deal come to pass they will opt out and topple the coalition. Has Netanyahu reached the end of his rope?

Though Iran's attack was almost wholly intercepted, by the combined Israeli-American efforts, this was no victory over Iran. Mike explains why a defensive strategy can never defeat an offensive dominant one. Then there is also the high cost of the defense systems relative to cheapness and quantity of Iran's drones and missiles. Iran has also collected a great deal of intelligence about the systems it is facing. But above all it successfully changed the rules of the game - and the US has let it do so. It now remains to be seen how Israel will respond.