Israel Update

Israel reservists were detained for questioning after a Hamas terrorist arrived in an Israeli hospital with physical signs of abuse. But this was not a routine arrest. Army police behaved towards IDF reservists as if this were a raid on a drug cartel – which ignited a riot in which enraged Israelis staged a break-in into two army bases. Mike and Gadi believe this drama encapsulates a much larger conflict which is brewing within Israeli society.Also, in this episode: what are the odds for the slaughter of 12 Druse children by a Hezbollah rocket spiraling into a full scale war? 

Senator Cotton attended Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech, and shared his impressions with us. Iran's proxies, Senator Cotton said, do not threaten only Israel, they "threaten the entire US led international order." We also spoke about Israel's war in Gaza, this strange moment in American politics, the Woke, and finally Jefferson and Madison.

Mike and Gadi have already written Netanyahu's speech in their imagination to their own satisfaction – we'll soon see how well they've guessed. But one thing is not in doubt: Iran will be a major theme. Judging by the prime minister's recent public statements, he is going to describe Israel as standing at the forefront of the West's war against "Iran's axis of evil." This seems like a pretty obvious thing to say in the US, but in the context of the current administration's regional policy – it is anything but. Mike and Gadi explain why.Also: how will substituting Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate affect Israel?Bonus: Joe Biden vs. Thomas Sowell https://x.com/GadiTaub1/status/1815265490010292440

 The failed assassination attempt on the former president will have vast consequences for the Middle East, some of which will be felt immediately. Israel, Mike argues, will have a freer hand to fight Hamas. A Trump victory however, with J.D. Vance as VP, will have far vaster effects on the region. Mike and Gadi discuss. Meanwhile, the incitement against PM Netanyahu crosses the line into a virtual calls for his assassination. Yet Israel's law enforcement seems not to have learned from the American lesson. Plus: a rift between Netanyahu and Gallant re the Philadelphi Corridor looms behind the attempt to reach a hostage deal with Hamas. 

The question is not just about the day after. It is also about the day before the day after: what should count as victory? Some have declared the return of the hostages to be the only meaning of victory and are willing to push for a deal almost at any price. But that means that in the real world, Hamas would be able to declare victory. This will not fly with the Netanyahu coalition. But even within the coalition, and importantly, between the politicians and the IDF brass, there are very different ideas of what this war can and should achieve. Gadi and Mike don't necessarily agree on the issue. 

The American presidential debate was a moment of truth – or lack thereof – for the press. It also has consequences for Israel and the Middle East. Mike and Gadi discuss.This week also saw an Israeli Supreme Court decision ordering the draft of all ultra-orthodox men. The decision is threatening the stability of Netanyahu's coalition. Mike and Gadi explain why this has become such a contested issue, and how religion, nationalism and progressivism define what Left and Right mean in Israel today.Then there is also a uniquely dumb take on the news. Join us and stay updated about Israel and its war.

Netanyahu's video message that called out the US on withholding arms from Israel succeeded – first the administration denied the facts, but then it opened the bureaucratic bottlenecks (see Mike's piece about this below). Few commentators, however, took note of the fact that there was a warning in that video – one which was later enhanced in Netanyahu's two major public statements this week. The war as the prime minister is now defining it, is a seven-front war with Iran. With a speech before a joint session of the two houses of congress scheduled for July 24, the administration must be worried that its Iran appeasement policy is in danger of being exposed. And all that, on the backdrop of the West's inability to fight wokeness, its autoimmune cultural disease. Mike and Gadi discuss the connection. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-italian-strike-israel-arms-shipments

The repeated attempts of the Biden administration to arrange a color revolution in Israel in order to topple Netanyahu's government are failing – partly because the Israeli "Resistance" is unable to muster more than a few thousand chronic Never-Bibi protestors. Israelis have no patience with people threatening to "paralyze the country" when so many are sending their sons and daughters to risk their lives in Gaza. Also: Gadi and Mike disagreed on whether IDF brass insubordination is becoming a real problem in Israel's ability to win the war.  

A bold rescue operation Nuseirat; Benny Gantz quits the war time coalition; a UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire and a hostage deal; steep escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, and – if all this is not enough – a looming crisis for the coalition over drafting of ultra-orthodox men to the IDF. Gadi and Mike untangle these strands and conclude that for now Netanyahu's coalition is not on the verge of collapse, despite the Biden administration's best efforts.

President Biden made a dramatic speech on Friday announcing an Israeli offer for a far-reaching hostage deal. Prime Minster Netanyahu's response at first made it seem like Biden was distorting Israel's position beyond recognition. It turned out that the truth behind the move was far more complicated. Mike and Gadi unpack the calculations of the different parties.Also in this episode: the North is burning.