Israel Update

Is a clash inevitable between Israel and Turkey over Syria? Or can they find a mutually beneficial arrangement? Two heavy hitters, IU's Mike Doran and Haifa University's Dan Schueftan, face off against each other on this crucial issue for Israel's future.

Mike has been following the Syrian question for decades and he explains why Israel has a great opportunity now, if it acts with a cool head, but may also fall into a dangerous trap if it does not.Plus: we had some hearty laughs at the end. 

After a number of off the record talks with high ranking sources in Israel, both Gadi and Mike are under the impression that the talks of larger goals are sincere. In that case we are probably witnessing a lull, no more, until President Trump takes office.Meanwhile, Netanyahu's domestic enemies are going into overdrive, with two new surprising investigations: one against the chief of Israel's Prison Service, and one against the chief of Israel's Police in Judea and Samaria. The problem seems to be this: they did what Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, told them to.

Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a confrontational statement accusing his intelligence services of deliberately withholding information from him. It seems clear by now that the "leak scandal" is turning into a real internal crisis.Since Mike was visiting Tel Aviv, we recorded this one on the fly, in Gadi's home.

This is more than an investigation of a leak. There are reasons why law enforcement and the state attorney are so intent on keeping the suspects in custody, despite the initial refusal of the lower court to extend their detention. Now it turns out that a rope and a suicide note were found in one suspect's cell. Gadi and Mike lay out three possible explanations for what this is really about.Then there's also the court's refusal to postpone Benjamin Netanyahu's testimony in the cases against him, even though he's slightly busy running a country at war. It seems like the deep state has stepped up its effort to oust Netanyahu, before time runs out on the Biden-Harris administration. 

Prime Minister Netanyahu is hinting that there is something more sinister going on behind an investigation of leaks from his office: yet another politically motivated use of law enforcement. And this time it's not the police, it's Israel's secret security service – Shabak (aka Shin Bet). Though we don't yet have all the information, Gadi thinks he's heard it all before – has Shabak director Ronen Bar taken a page from James Comey's book? Mike, not yet convinced, nevertheless thinks such an interpretation is beginning to make more sense. We also discussed Trump's new appointments and what they reveal about his administration's future policy vis-à-vis Israel. 

For over a year now Mike and Gadi have been wrestling with one central problem: can Israel go it alone against Iran? That awful dilemma may now be obsolete. Apart from a deep sense of relief, what are we to expect from a Trump presidency?Meanwhile Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant, his minister of defense. Why did Netanyahu choose this timing, and what can the timing reveal about his possible plans for the future conduct of the war?And finally, does the new investigation of a leaked document pose a threat to the stability of Netanyahu's coalition?

A report in the Israeli press talks of "advanced" negotiations for a deal to end the war in Lebanon. But Mike and Gadi are skeptical. The way the story is sourced, the journalist who wrote it, and the American blessing written all over it, suggest that around a grain of truth a fair amount to wishful thinking by the usual suspects has grown. Nevertheless, Mike thinks we can't dismiss the possibility. We also discussed Gadi's piece in Mosaic about the false conceptions that blinded Israel to the disaster of October 7.

Was it wise to limit the strike to military targets, as per the American red lines? Or did Israel just miss a once in a lifetime opportunity to take out Iran's nuclear facilities? Are we going to see further escalation or will it all wind down now in the run-up to the American elections? We found almost nothing to agree on this time, not even Yair Lapid.

Predictably, the US is once again telling Israel to "take the win," and bring an end to the war in a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. But the very idea is outdated since there is no longer a central Hamas leadership able to deliver a deal. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu's message is that Israel will deal separately with each local Hamas commander: whoever will deliver our hostages can get his life and a safe passage out of Gaza in return. How this will play out, and what it could mean for other theaters – primarily Lebanon and Iran? Mike and Gadi discuss.Mike's WSJ piece The Politico piece we discussed