Independent Thinking

On the show this week, we ask how long Russia’s Vladimir Putin can survive. Two weeks on from the mutiny by the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s challenge to his rule, we’ve seen a flurry of activity by the Russian leader to reassert his authority in Moscow. Russian history however is replete with leaders who appear unassailable, right up until the point they’re not. We discuss whether Putin’s grip is weakening, and how might Western governments react if he falls. Also, on the show this week we look ahead, once more, to the NATO Summit in Vilnius next week. As we discussed at our London Conference special, multilateralism is being challenged everywhere and the NATO alliance is no exception. With Turkey showing no signs of budging on Sweden’s membership, Ukraine not likely to be offered membership anytime soon, and infighting over who the next Secretary General might be, can the alliance rally next week? Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast this week is Tobias Ellwood MP is the chair of the UK Parliament’s Defence Select Committee; Polina Ivanova, a foreign correspondent for the Financial Times covering Russia, Ukraine, and Central Asia and Mark Temnycky, a Ukrainian journalist and Associate Fellow with the Atlantic Council.  Read our expertise: How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine Putin has limited options after the Prigozhin mutiny Preparing NATO for climate-related security challenges Fate of vulnerable minority looms over Armenia-Azerbaijan peace Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Robin Gardner and Abdul Boudiaf.

We are live this week from our London Conference, where we discuss the war in Ukraine, the recent events in Russia with the mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and the weakening of Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. And then later in the show, we look at the increasing tensions within the international system and discuss how the UK as a ‘middle power’ can manage these tensions with an increasingly fragile economy and Brexit. And finally on the podcast, we announce this year’s Chatham House prize winner. The prize is an annual honor awarded to the person, persons, or organization deemed to have made the most significant contribution to the improvement of international relations in the previous year. The Chatham House Prize is voted for by Chatham House members following nominations from the institute’s staff. The winner this year, is President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. Joining Bronwen Maddox on the podcast this week is Garry Kasparov, a world-renowned Russian chess grandmaster, turned ardent critic of Vladimir Putin; Jonathan Powell, the former chief of staff for Tony Blair; Martin Wolf, the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times and Orysia Lutsevych, the head of our Ukraine Forum here at Chatham House. Read our expertise: UK foreign secretary James Cleverly calls for reform of UN Security Council How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine Global AI governance: What is the UK’s role? Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Matthew Docherty.

On the podcast this week we look at the UK’s role in the defence of the Nordic region. Since the annexation of Crimea, the UK has taken a keen interest in the Nordic and Baltic regions, with the formation of the Joint Expeditionary Force. With Kyiv’s counter-offensive now underway, we look at how Europe’s security is being reshaped by events in Ukraine, what London and the JEF states are looking to achieve by operating more closely in the north, and the balance of forces between NATO and Russia in the Baltic now Finland is a NATO member. Also, this week, we look ahead to the NATO summit in Vilnius next month. With Finland now an alliance member, but Sweden still outside, are alliance politics (with Turkey and Hungary) leaving NATO's northern flank vulnerable. What role are key alliance members like France and the UK playing ahead of Vilnius, and in the face of intense fighting in the east, what kind of plan might the alliance offer Ukraine? Joining Roxanne Escobales on the show this week are Olivia O’Sullivan, Director of our UK in the World program, Alice Billon-Galland, a Research Fellow with Chatham House’s Europe program and from Helsinki Matti Pesu, a Researcher with the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Read our expertise: Why the UK must deliver on Nordic-Baltic security Macron’s summit needs to bolster anti-corruption efforts in climate finance The Illegal Migration Bill matters beyond UK borders Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

On the podcast this week, we look at the growing tensions between India and China. This week marks three years since Indian and Chinese troops were killed fighting each other in the Himalayas along the contested border. Since then, ties between Beijing and New Delhi have gone from bad to worse. This week, India's last remaining journalist in China was asked to leave. A stark sign of the increasingly cold ties between the two countries. We discuss the current state of India’s relations with China and how concerned the world should be. Also on the show, we take a wider look at India’s foreign policy ambitions and the challenges it faces as it attempts to become a global power, amid a turbulent neighbourhood in South Asia and beyond. We look at India’s relations with its key neighbours in South Asia, the security challenges it faces, notably the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, as well as New Delhi’s growing ties with the Quad nations, Japan, Australia, and the United States. Will the 21st Century be an ‘Indian Century’ after all? Joining Bronwen Maddox this week are Dr Avinash Paliwal from University London SOAS; from New Delhi Dr Raji Pillai,the Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) and from Nepal journalist Amish Raj Mulmi, author of the book All Roads Lead North. Read our expertise: Are China and India bound for another deadly border clash? The Illegal Migration Bill matters beyond UK borders Here are five difficult issues for the NATO summit Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Matthew Docherty.

On the podcast this week, we look at the Wagner Group, the shadowy paramilitary organisation, and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Wagner has been active on the ground and involved in some of the conflict’s fiercest battles, notably around Bakhmut. We discuss the group’s relationship with the Russian armed forces, its ties with the Kremlin and the increasingly tense relationship Prigozhin seems to have with senior Russian leaders. Also on the show we discuss the latest developments from the frontline in Ukraine. With Kyiv’s counter-offensive seemingly imminent, the world woke up to news this week that the Nova Kakhovka dam along the Dnipro River had been destroyed by Russia. We discuss the impact of this ecological disaster on Ukraine, as well as the recent fighting in Belgorod, the drone attacks in Moscow and whether these are all key signs that Kyiv may be about to go on the offensive. Joining guest host James Nixey on the show this week to discuss all these topics are Patricia Lewis is the Director of our International Security programme; journalist Samantha de Bendern, an Associated Fellow with our Russia and Eurasia programme and Ed Arnold, a Research Fellow for European Security from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Read our expertise: Imagining Russia’s future after Putin Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

On the podcast this week we look at the outcome of the final round of Turkey’s presidential election. Despite the polls showing him behind, and amid a devastating earthquake and an economy in crisis, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been re-elected as Turkey’s president, winning by 52 per cent of the vote. In the last episode we covered what Erdoğan’s re-election might mean for Turkey’s fragile democracy and economy, this week we discuss what five more years of Erdoğan’s foreign policy means for Ankara and for its relations with critical players like the US, NATO and Russia. Joining Leslie Vinjamuri on the show to discuss where Turkey may be heading are Galip Dalay, an Associate Fellow Middle East and North Africa programme, Sinem Adar, an Associate Researcher for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and finally Dimitar Bechev, from the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies. Read our expertise: Turkey’s politics on the cusp of generational change  Turkey’s next leader may be pro-West but not anti-Russia Turkey at a crossroads Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on the podcast we discuss Syria and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. For over a decade, the regime in Damascus has been an international pariah, amid a brutal campaign of terror by the Syrian armed forces against its people. The geopolitical sands however are shifting, with signs that regimes across the Middle East are prepared to talk with Assad once more. We look at what this means for the region, the implications for the alliance between Iran and Syria, and whether justice for the Assad regime’s victims is now lost to realpolitik diplomacy.  We also look this week at the Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia. This week Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a rallying call for Ukraine at the summit, in a part of the world where views of the war differ greatly from those here in Europe. We ask what Zelenskyy was trying to achieve, not least by meeting Mohammed Bin Salman, what influence Russia has in the region and how is the war perceived by the people of the Middle East more widely. Joining Bronwen Maddox on the show this week s Dr Sanam Vakil, the new Director of our Middle East and North Africa programme. Dr Haid Haid, a Consulting Fellow with our MENA programme, and Professor Christopher Phillips from Queen Mary University London, and the author of the book The Battle for Syria. Read our expertise: The end of the Arab Spring and there is a price to pay Turkey’s politics on the cusp of generational change War in Sudan: Perspectives and prospects for resolution Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Robin Gardner and Alex Moyler.

This week on podcast we look at the fallout from the first round of Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections. President Erdogan is just a hair's breadth away from securing the 50% of the vote needed to become president. With Turkey set to enter a presidential run-off on 28 May we ask what this means for Turkey’s fragile democracy? Has the opposition under Kilicdaroglu lost momentum? And what impact did issues such as identity politics, the economy, foreign policy, and the devastating earthquakes play in the election?  We also look more broadly to what the result means for Turkey’s place in the world. With Turkey potentially about to enter a third decade of rule under Erdogan, where will this place Ankara’s ties with Russia, Europe, and the United States? What does this mean for Sweden’s entry into NATO? And what does the election result mean for the future of Turkey’s fragile economy? Joining Bronwen Maddox on the show this week is Galip Dalay is an Associate Fellow with our MENA programme; Timothy Ash an Associate Fellow with our Russia, and Eurasia programme; Evren Balta, a Professor of International Relations at Özyeğin University and journalist Guney Yildiz, formerly with the BBC, but now with Cambridge University.  Read our expertise: Turkey’s next leader may be pro-West but not anti-Russia Turkey elections: High stakes for democracy Turkey at a crossroads Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Alex Moyler.

This week on the podcast we look at the announcement by Vladimir Putin to move Russian nuclear weapons into Belarus and equip Belarusian forces with dual-use equipment and technology. We discuss what the security implications are of this decision, how it fits into Russia’s wider nuclear doctrine and how concerned we should be? We also dive into the internal dynamics of Belarus. It’s been three years since the 2020 presidential election. An election Aliaksandr Lukashenka was widely seen to have lost, sparking widespread pro-democracy protests. Since then, however, Lukashenka has crushed the opposition in Belarus, kidnapped journalists and been drawn into Russia’s invasion against Ukraine. Our experts discuss the sentiment in Belarus via polling data commissioned by Chatham House and ask how the West should engage with Europe’s last dictatorship? Joining Bronwen Maddox on the show this week are colleagues from our Russia and Eurasia Program. Keir Giles is a Senior Consulting Fellow with REP and the author of a recent Chatham House report on Russia’s nuclear doctrine; Ryhor Astapenia, is the Director of our Belarus Initiative and joining them is journalist and Associate Fellow  Samantha de Bendern. Read our expertise: Russian nuclear intimidation Rethinking Western policy towards Belarus Turkey’s next leader may be pro-West but not anti-Russia Subscribe to Independent Thinking wherever you get your podcasts. Please listen, rate, review and subscribe. Presented by Bronwen Maddox. Produced by John Pollock. Sound by Abdul Boudiaf and Robin Gardner.