Kontrarian Korner

I had Christine Guerrero on the podcast last week to talk about oil and what’s going on in energy markets today. She’s a good follow on Twitter for any of the social media junkies out there. You can also watch the podcast on YouTube. We also discussed stocks in different parts of the energy sector, including Frontera and Petrobras $PBR . I’ll be touching on both stocks briefly in my portfolio update later this week.Podcast SummaryWe covered lots of topics, including:* An in depth walkthrough of the long term supply and demand picture for oil.* Capex underinvestment over the last decade.* Permian Basin recency bias.* Frack spreads vs. rig count as an indicator for oil markets.* Negative natural gas prices at the Permian terminal and Waha terminal.* The Matterhorn pipeline coming online at the end of Q3, which should add additional pipeline capacity for the Permian.* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve.* Frontera Energy’s current situation with their offshore block in Guyana.* Petrobras vs. Lula, and the political uncertainty around the company.* Book Recommendations: How To Listen When Markets Speak by Larry McDonald and Animal Spirits by George Akerlof.“They [Wood MacKenzie] actually believe that by 2034, we’re going to need to add another 22 million barrels a day of new liquids production.”Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had Tom Luongo on the podcast recently, and we got into a wide ranging discussion on markets, geopolitics, and current events. He’s the author of Gold, Goats n’ Guns and definitely worth checking out. He’s also very entertaining on Twitter. If you would rather watch on YouTube, the link is here. Tom went into detail on a bunch of topics, including:* The Geopolitical Chess Board, and the different competing factions in power.* The Federal Reserve, interest rates, and the path forward from here.* Oil and other commodities.* The 2024 Election: Biden, Trump’s VP pick, and other topics.* Book Recommendation: Ubik by Philip K. Dick.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

We have a double dip on the podcast this week, so instead of the Videos Of The Week post, I wanted to drop my conversation with Dave Collum for you guys. He’s a professor of Organic Chemistry at Cornell and a must follow on Twitter. He’s also a sharp investor and entertaining market commentator. If you would rather watch the podcast on YouTube, here’s a link. On the podcast, we discussed:* Financial markets and the ridiculous overvaluation of some of the largest stocks: “I think the Magnificent Seven is going to become the Magnificent Zero.”* The impact of passive investing on the market.* The Presidential Election and his thoughts on Biden, Trump, and how things might play out between now and November 5.* The generational divide, including the wealth gap between old and young, the upcoming wealth transfer to younger generations, and its potential impact on the real estate market.* Book Recommendations: Psychology of Totalitarianism by Mattias Desmet and American Betrayal by Diana West.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had Steve from Unemployed Value Degen on the podcast the other day. He’s a relatively new Substack writer, and I was interested to chat with him on Transocean $RIG and several other companies he’s interested in. You can find his Substack here. If you want to watch it on YouTube, here’s a link. We spent a good bit of time chatting about Transocean and offshore, but we also covered several other stocks, including:* Sibanye Stillwater $SBSW and his thoughts on the mining sector* Peabody Energy $BTU and his thoughts on their buyback program. * He also talks about some stocks that are frequent targets of short sellers.* B. Riley $RILY , and why he thinks their core business could improve after a rough couple years, and some of the assets they could sell.* GameStop $GME , and how he thinks there could be value there outside of the speculative mania.* Medical Properties Trust $MPW , and his thoughts on the issues with a main tenant and the discount to book value. * His book recommendations: Opening Skinner’s Box by Lauren Slater and On The Nature Of Mass Movements by Eric HofferDisclaimerI own shares of Transocean and Peabody Energy. I also own calls on Transocean and Peabody Energy. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had John Polomny on the podcast recently, and we had a wide ranging discussion on what he’s paying attention to today. He writes the Actionable Intelligence Alert, a Substack you guys should check out. You can also find the video on YouTube, or on the main podcast platforms. We talked about investments and current events, among other things:* John’s experience and background in the power industry* The shift from peak ESG to a more pragmatic approach to energy policy* His natural gas outlook, and why it’s in his too hard pile* The supply and demand picture for oil, and his thoughts on the Permian Basin* His thoughts on precious metals* Other under the radar opportunities around the world* His opinion the decline of the West and the current geopolitical landscape* His book recommendation: The Black Book Of Communism (several authors)Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I hope everyone had a good Memorial Day weekend. I recently had Matt Warder, who recently took over The Coal Trader, on the podcast. You can also watch it on YouTube here. He is an expert on all things coal. We chatted for an hour on the coal sector and some the stocks that might be interesting to you. You can find him on Twitter as well. We talked about Matt’s thoughts on a bunch of other coal related topics, including:* The long term future of the sector.* His thoughts on buybacks.* Peabody, their Centurion mine, and Elliott heading for the exit.* Warrior Met Coal being very attractive below $60, and the plan for Blue Creek over the next couple years.* We also discussed Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Consol Energy, Whitehaven, Corsa Coal, Glencore and Teck. * Matt’s Book Recommendations: Thinking, Fast And Slow by Daniel Kahneman & Narrative Economics by Bob Shiller.Note: Since this podcast was recorded, Elliott Investment Management filed to sell their remaining 1.4M shares of Peabody Energy BTU .Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

I had Phil Gibson as the first guest on the Kontrarian Korner podcast. If you want to read his work, you can find his Substack at QPOL. If you want to watch it on YouTube, check out my channel here.We talked about multiple topics, including: * Fed policy, and the potential to put gold on the yield curve* The different factions on the geopolitical chessboard* His thoughts on Bitcoin, why he owns it, and why he thinks everyone should own some.* I asked him how investors new to Bitcoin (me) could dollar cost average into Bitcoin* Book Recommendation: The House Of Morgan by Ron ChernowKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

A quick hit introduction on my background as an investor and how I got to writing on Substack and starting a podcast. Check my stuff out on Substack at https://www.kontrariankorner.com/ or on Twitter at https://twitter.com/BR_Kelleran. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe