The Uncertainty Podcast

Mike Titelbaum, a philosopher and author of Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology, explores Bayesianism, graded confidence, and when precise probabilities break down. He tackles John Norton’s material theory of induction, cosmological fine-tuning, evidence for God, and the divide between everyday and mathematical probability. The conversation also examines incommensurable beliefs, subjective Bayesianism, and the limits of rational standards.

Emily Adlam discusses the problems facing several interpretations of quantum mechanics: principal among them, the probability problem. Prepare for discussion of self-locating credences, branch-counting, and whether a mechanism deposits consciousness throughout the branching wavefunction of the universe.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:52 The problem of recovering empirical confirmation00:04:47 The many-worlds interpretation00:07:01 The measurement problem00:08:42 The probability problem in many-worlds00:12:06 The decision-theoretic approach to probability00:16:33 Self-locating evidence and Everettian quantum mechanics00:19:20 Pure vs. superficial self-locating credence00:25:08 Can the Born rule constrain self-locating credence?00:30:15 Interpretations vs. theories of quantum mechanics00:34:51 Can we save science from quantum mechanics?00:44:30 What happened to the Copenhagen interpretation?00:46:45 What do physicists believe about quantum mechanics?00:48:27 The anthropic argument for God00:56:22 Multiverses, fine-tuning, and self-locating evidence Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

In the hundredth episode of this podcast, I discuss the use, and misuse, of probability in science and philosophy with John Norton. Prepare for a contentious conversation about fundamental issues in probability theory, induction, and cosmic fine-tuning. This one does not disappoint.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:00:30 Formal vs. material theories of induction00:04:58 Does material induction make induction redundant?00:11:15 Bayesianism vs. the material theory00:16:47 Can we say evolution is “probably” true?00:19:23 Evidential support without probabilities00:23:16 Can Bayesianism capture inference to the best explanation?00:25:00 The outcome space dispute00:29:47 Probability and the danger of false precision00:31:03 The simulation argument and misapplied probability00:35:39 The doomsday argument and self-locating evidence00:38:33 Objective vs. subjective Bayesianism00:43:36 The bootstrapping problem for probability00:50:53 Probability in cosmology and the multiverse00:57:59 Does inflation make our universe more probable?01:00:19 What is John Norton most uncertain about? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Tim Mawson, professor of philosophy at Oxford, discusses the contours of the newly emerging philosophical investigation into the meaning of life. What does it mean to say that life's meaning is subjective versus objective? Would life be meaningful if we were immortal? And what difference does God make, and not make, to whether life means anything?Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:02:55 Open theism and God's relationship to time00:11:09 Returning to the meaning of life00:12:06 Why philosophers neglected the meaning of life00:15:48 What does it mean for life to have meaning?00:19:20 Objectivism, subjectivism and hybrid theories00:28:23 Objective meaning, subjective states and purpose00:35:00 Can there be no meaning to life?00:39:47 What can God add to life's meaning?00:43:25 Vocation, purpose and meaningfulness00:50:50 Does God give some people more meaningful lives?00:59:20 Death, immortality and the meaning of life01:00:25 Would eternal life become unbearably boring?01:07:48 Does infinite time destroy urgency?01:13:23 Would praising God forever become boring?01:18:14 What God cannot add to life's meaning01:21:55 Can God's existence make a life less meaningful?01:24:18 What is the meaning of life? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Kevin Scharp comes back on the podcast to discuss William Lane Craig’s eight-part case for the existence of God: contingency, cosmology, mathematics, fine-tuning, consciousness, morality, miracles, and experience.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:20 Behind the scenes: Kevin vs. William Lane Craig00:14:11 Craig on probability & inference to the best explanation00:23:07 Divine psychology and fine-tuning00:27:06 Argument #1 - Contingency00:43:30 Does everything need an explanation?00:49:48 Argument #2 - Kalam cosmological argument00:51:35 Actual infinity and Hilbert’s Hotel01:03:06 Argument #3 - Fine-tuning01:09:53 What does the Big Bang actually tell us?01:11:53 Divine psychology01:27:08 Argument #4 - Applicability of mathematics01:35:08 Argument #5 - Consciousness01:40:47 Does consciousness really get us to God?01:45:41 Argument #6 - Morality01:54:43 Argument #7 - The resurrection of Jesus01:58:27 Miracles and the laws of nature02:08:25 Argument #8 - Experience of God Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Ralph Weir answers all my questions about the mind-body problem, how we define "physical," whether I can conceive of philosophical zombies, and where panpsychism fits into all this.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:02:35 How Ralph got into philosophy of mind00:05:52 Eliminativism: do mental states exist?00:09:00 What is illusionism?00:10:56 What is phenomenal consciousness?00:17:53 What are qualia?00:21:33 What does “physical” actually mean?00:29:03 Is panpsychism a form of physicalism?00:35:45 Mapping the mind-body problem00:45:16 Property dualism vs. substance dualism00:53:10 What is the strongest case against physicalism?01:00:32 Philosophical zombies and modal skepticism01:10:23 Can science settle the mind-body problem?01:18:20 Mental causation and physical anomalies01:22:31 Does the evidence favor physicalism?01:34:07 Which philosophical view is Ralph most uncertain about? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

Michael Huemer, philosophy professor and author known for work on epistemology and arguments about divine infinitude. Joshua Rasmussen, philosophy scholar and Ph.D. student who develops a cumulative theistic case and the argument from arbitrary limits. They spar over whether God can be truly infinite, whether theism best explains consciousness and fine-tuning, and how suffering and multiverse ideas fit into competing explanations.

Emily McRae, professor of philosophy at the University of New Mexico, offers an overview of Buddhist philosophy. In particular, we discuss the different traditions within Buddhism - Theravada, Mahayana, Tibetan, and Zen - the doctrine of emptiness, the Four Noble Truths, and the ontology of Nirvana: annihilation, eternal bliss, or a state of mind in the here and now?Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:02:55 Moral ignorance in Buddhist philosophy00:06:47 What drew Emily to Buddhist philosophy?00:10:36 Analytic philosophy vs. Buddhist philosophy00:13:41 What kind of ethical theory is Buddhism?00:21:26 Is Buddhism a religion or a philosophy?00:24:37 The major schools of Buddhism00:29:56 Emptiness and the Buddhist theory of the self00:37:47 Why the Buddha refused to answer some questions00:43:02 The Four Noble Truths00:46:01 The first Noble Truth: suffering00:51:04 The second Noble Truth: the causes of suffering00:53:43 The third Noble Truth: the end of suffering00:56:10 What is nirvana?01:00:14 Does Buddhism ultimately teach annihilation?01:07:15 Buddhism vs. Christianity on desire01:12:18 The fourth Noble Truth: the Eightfold Path01:16:16 What reason is there to believe Buddhism is true? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

In my recent discussion with Ethan Muse, he made a case for the compatibility of God's perfect love and the doctrine of eternal conscious torment. Randal Rauser returns to the channel to respond. Are we far more wicked than we realize? Does any sin merit infinite punishment? What should we do if we struggle with fear of eternal hell? We discuss these questions and much else besides.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:02:06 Randal’s approach to YouTube00:03:08 Initial reactions to Ethan Muse’s defense of hell00:08:34 Is the problem emotional or intellectual?00:16:07 The authority of the Catholic Church00:22:16 The three Christian views of hell00:25:00 Are human beings wicked enough to deserve hell?00:31:02 Does every sin merit infinite punishment?00:36:29 Moral culpability and ignorance00:43:08 Is rejecting God an infinitely serious sin?00:47:08 Will most people go to hell?00:53:19 Would creation be a net moral failure?00:56:30 Did Jesus teach eternal conscious torment?01:03:29 The central moral argument against eternal hell01:07:18 Do the noetic effects of sin undermine moral intuition?01:12:19 Should we trust the moral judgment of Catholic saints?01:20:48 Does moral disagreement undermine our intuitions?01:24:07 Different degrees of suffering in hell01:28:16 How should Christians cope with the fear of hell? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe

This week's interview features...me! I have finally gotten around to answering all the questions you sent me when we hit 3,000 subscribers. Yes, this video is v late. Yes, it is v worth the watch. Prepare for a more informal, cheeky side of me.Video of this interview is available on YouTube.To support the channel, do please oh please consider donating, either via PayPal or Buy Me a Coffee.Follow me on X because you’re awesome.EPISODE CHAPTERS:00:00:00 Introduction00:00:20 Which guest has challenged you the most?00:01:12 Are the fundamental constants independent?00:02:44 What are your hobbies outside philosophy?00:03:49 Were you ever an atheist?00:03:52 Why is there something rather than nothing?00:05:18 Have you ever considered becoming a model?00:05:22 How much do you think about modality?00:05:52 Have you ever had a religious experience?00:06:13 What are the best arguments for theism?00:07:27 What are the chances that universalism is true?00:08:16 Were you always smart?00:08:19 Paul Draper’s understated evidence objection00:10:50 Will theism grow among philosophers?00:11:43 An empirical approach to religion00:12:42 The aesthetic argument for God00:13:55 Will philosophy ever abandon materialism?00:15:08 How have your views on theism evolved?00:17:45 Is universalism true or theism false?00:18:44 What is your journal acceptance rate?00:18:57 What do you think about TAG?00:19:27 How can someone find their life’s purpose?00:20:00 Does universalism weaken the problem of evil?00:21:56 What makes you doubt Christianity?00:23:50 Has Paul Draper weakened your theism?00:25:34 Which dead philosophers would you speak to?00:27:46 Do theistic arguments depend on modality?00:29:30 Where do you hope to be in ten years?00:29:38 What if fine-tuning gave no support to theism?00:29:54 Why does God exist?00:31:02 Can you publish without a philosophy degree?00:31:19 What does it mean to exist?00:32:09 Are theistic arguments more technically vulnerable?00:34:32 Who are you? Get full access to Miles K. Donahue at mileskdonahue.substack.com/subscribe