Kerre Woodham Mornings Podcast

The cyclone has given the battered Coromandel Peninsula another whack — with more on the way. Crews are working to clear widespread damage to the roads, with a lot of land unstable. There have also been power outages. Coromandel-Thames Civil Defence Gary Towler says that the region probably has up to 36 hours left of the storm to ride out. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

49 percent of New Zealanders believe the country is on the wrong track. 42 percent believe it's going in the right direction. 77 percent of people feel poorly or not so good about the economy. 22 percent think it's good or excellent, and this is one of the largest gaps since the pandemic. And yet, National is only slightly ahead of Labour in the latest polls from Talbot Mills, they also run Labour's private political polling. In the results, Te Pāti Māori would hold the balance of power when it came to forming a government. Get ready for another three years of a Labour/Greens government people. That is the joy of living in a democracy. How is it that when even Labour knows they're stuffing things up and getting things wrong, (hence the change of leader, hence the policy reset), there is still the potential for them to get another three years. I know at Newstalk ZB and this particular show, we're in our own little echo chamber here, but it can't be that Labour are doing things right. Even they know they're not doing things right. The poll says people are dissatisfied and worried about the economy, but voters don't feel that National is the overwhelming answer. Matthew Hooton, writing in the NZ Herald this morning, says National’s' nonchalance stems first from it not understanding just how badly Hipkins, Sepuloni, Robertson, Woods and Wood, want to win a third term. They don't appreciate their hunger, their desperate desire to see things through to get the policies they care about pushed through. Matthew Hooton says too, that National doesn't understand David Seymour's ACT party more than the Nats' only credible coalition partner. It seems likely that Christopher Luxon can't get National above 40 percent. I've spent time with Christopher Luxon. He's got all the figures; he's got an impressive grasp of detail. He's perfectly personable, but he's just not getting any cut through. I don't know what more he can do. He can't be somebody else. Somebody else could be the leader of the National Party, but I don't think that would work right now, especially after Labour has replaced its leader. It would look desperate and it would be desperate. I think Hooton is right, though. The best opportunity to gain traction on Labour would be for National to form a working alliance with ACT. Christopher Luxon and David Seymour need to show voters what a central right New Zealand would look like. We don't want any more empty rhetoric. We've had five years of sloganeering and empty rhetoric; we want good meaty policy. We want to see what New Zealand looks like with a centre-right influence and then we can decide. Winston Peters was right, that the only poll that matters is the one on voting day, but for National to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory would be one hell of an achievement, and certainly not one to be proud of.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sensible or cynical? Yesterday, the Prime Minister announced the first of the Government's policies it will be scrapping in a bid to win back the support of those who have become disillusioned by Labour's lack of action and incoherent messaging. The TVNZ/RNZ merger has been scrapped for now. The hate speech reforms have gone back to the Law Commission. The Workplace Insurance scheme has gone, and in music to the ears of the unions and the lowly paid, the minimum wage has gone up again. Now that will delight those who are struggling. Really though, who isn't struggling with the rising cost of everything? But that money to pay the workers has to come from somewhere. Have businesses become that much more productive that wages can rise? Some may have, but as the Employers and Manufacturers Association says, an increase of $1.50 an hour to $22.70 is much more than was expected, and for the majority of businesses, it's problematic. Inevitably, in many cases it will be passed on to consumers through increased prices.  But is simply raising the minimum wage the way to create a productive first world country where everyone doesn't just survive, but thrives? I don't know. Like so much this Government has done, it looks way too simplistic to me. Can your business sustain this increase? And has Labour made these changes to the policies and raised the minimum wage because these are sensible decisions and the right thing to do?  Or is this a cynical ploy from an under pressure party who wants to ensure that they don't have to go looking for a real job a few months from now? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A storm system creeping towards New Zealand has similarities to Cyclone Gita, which hit several years ago. Cyclone Gabrielle is now sitting off Queensland's coast in the Coral Sea, and is on track to hit the North Island at the end of this week. WeatherWatch’s Philip Duncan joined Kerre Woodham. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government has announced the minimum wage will increase by $1.50 to $22.70 an hour from April.   According to the ACT Party, the Government has now made it harder for businesses to take a chance on a young worker who is looking for a chance and are putting another cost on businesses at a time when about 30 percent of retail businesses aren’t sure they will survive the next 12 months. Leader David Seymour joined Kerre Woodham. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You know it's an election year, don't you, because crime, law and order is front and centre. Although to be fair, crime has been making headlines since the ram raids, and since the Government kept telling us crime was going down and we didn't really feel like it was. Now, National’s police spokesperson Mark Mitchell has produced a set of figures from police that show the number of reported retail crime incidents has spiked to more than 10,000 in a single month, the highest in recorded history. In the 12 months to 30 November last year, an average of 8541 retail crime incidents were recorded monthly. In October 2022 alone there were 10,020 incidents. During the same period up to 30 November 2018, an average of 4336 retail crime incidents were recorded, just half the number we're seeing today. Jevon McSkimming, the Deputy Police Commissioner was on with Mike Hosking this morning, he said it's not necessarily that there's more crime, it's just that more crime is being recorded. He also goes on to say that it's all well and good to arrest people, but all the component parts within the judicial system have their part to play. Stats are difficult. As Jevon McSkimming said, our data is better now so that every single incident gets recorded. So, a shoplifting incident that five years ago might not have come to the police attention, now does. So that's why it looks like there's more crime. And then you've got the Government saying, well, crime is coming down. How do you know that? Well, because the number of assaults recorded has gone down. Is that on the police data or on prosecutions? Because if you're trying to keep people out of jail and you're not prosecuting them, then the figures will come down. It doesn't mean there's any less crime. It's all incredibly confusing. And depending on which stats you want, I suppose you can craft your own narrative, can't you? Lies, damn lies and statistics. Are you on Team Jevon or Team Mitchell? Do you believe that more data is being collected, that the police are doing a great job in rounding up the people who are committing crime? Or is more crime being committed because people feel emboldened and entitled and they know that nobody's going to touch them if they march out of a supermarket with their trolleys laden full of groceries that don't belong to them? I tend towards the latter camp.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s back to school today for many children and if your household was anything like ours, it's full of nervous excitement and brand-new school bags for a brand-new class. Old mates and new mates. We cannot wait to hear the stories fresh off the playground on the first day back, and school should be exciting. It should be something that children do look forward to. It should be a safe place where children are encouraged to learn and to see the world as somewhere where they can take their rightful place. And yet our truancy rates have never been worse. Just 39.9 percent of New Zealand children attended school and kura regularly last year. There are many, many reasons for that but the implications for this country of dealing with a generation of semi-literate young New Zealanders is horrifying. The thing that gets me most is that awful waste of potential. Young people are ripe for learning.  They may have come from pretty shabby backgrounds, but if you get them right, if they feel safe, if they feel secure, if they're fed, if they've got people who are feeding their minds, just not their bodies, then they will grow, and they will flourish. They will be the best they can be, and that's got to be good for all of us. The new Children's Commissioner, Francis Eivers, has said that she is fully focused on lifting children out of poverty, but that is a lot harder than it sounds. We had a Prime Minister who was utterly committed to improving the lives of our most vulnerable kids and even her most generous supporters say that when she left office, the job was not done.  Eivers says it's easy to forget that 20 kilometres down the road from where any one of us live, children are starving. But why are they starving? That's what I really want to know.  From the Kick Start breakfasts put on by Sanitarium and Fonterra where there are Weet-Bix, there's milk, there's fruit. From the Kids Can charity, providing clothing and food, to the schools that qualify who have hungry kids, to the money you and I have spent, $216.7 million in operating funds, $3.9 million in capital expenditure to provide school lunches across the country. If you go to school there should be no reason at all for you to be going to school hungry.   If that's not working, then let's perhaps look at putting $220 million somewhere else to try and get the very best out of our most vulnerable kids.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Now Stuart Nash is back as Minister for police, the first thing he wants to do is see the removal of ciggies from dairies as he thinks that's the answer to preventing ram raids. Steps have already been taken to get cigarettes out of corner shops, not because of the ram raids, but because of the health effects and the Smokefree Aotearoa policy. We have the prohibition of the sale of smoked tobacco products to anyone born on or after the 1st of January, 2009. And there's also a restriction on the number of businesses that can sell ciggies and pipe tobacco, no more than 600 nationally. So the writing is on the wall. Eventually there will be no cigarettes at corner stores.   I just don't see that taking cigarettes out of dairies is going to magically solve the problem of robberies? It's not. I mean ciggies are going the way of DVDs anyway, and hopefully dairies can find a way to survive without going the way of video stores. I love having the dairy up the road. When you're not the most organized person in the world, a dairy up the road is a lifesaver when in the middle of baking and there's no baking soda, or there's no bread or you're out of milk. Dairies are also generally family-run businesses. They're hard-working people, they're nice people, and they’re part of the neighbourhood. I'd hate to see them go. A lot of them have introduced vape outlets as part of a way to survive; I guess that's pivoting. They will find a way to survive if they need to.   But as Police Minister, taking ciggies out of dairies is not going to be the answer, I can tell him that for nothing. As a texter said this morning “so what, the answer to the ram raids on Glengarry’s is that they stopped selling wine. The answer to the burglaries on the Michael Hill retailers is that they stop selling jewellery.” They're not the problem. Their product is not the problem. Even cigarettes are not the problem. Entitled dysfunctional families breeding violent thieves, they're the problem.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

1News broke the news last night that there may be a breakthrough in the management of forestry on the East Coast. Four cabinet ministers attended the meeting; Ministers Stuart Nash, David O'Connor, Kiritapu Allan and Meka Whaitiri. There was also Federated farmers, the forestry owners, Gisborne District Council, local mayor and Mana Whenua present.  To discuss this local minister and Regional Development Minister Kiritapu Allan joined Kerre Woodham. LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first of stats are in regarding mortgage holders' ability to deal with the new and increased mortgage interest rates, and so far so good. Those with homes and mortgages collectively paid $3.5 billion of interest to banks in the December quarter, 53 percent more than just over a year earlier when interest rates were the lowest on record.   Record high wages have helped when it comes to mortgage holders resilience, although the rising cost of living is eating into that.   And these are only the first of the stats - around half of the country's mortgage debt is due for refixing this year and that will increase the number of borrowers who face high interest debt. Massey University's Claire Matthews joined Kerre Woodham. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.