Two new political polls out show Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori would have enough support to form the next government, should an election be held tomorrow, while also suggesting more people believe the country's headed in the wrong direction.   The latest 1News-Verian poll found support had dipped for the coalition government who could only muster 60 seats in Parliament, not enough to meet the 61-seat majority required. A combination, however, of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori did reach the 61-seat threshold. And that follows a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll that also found the left bloc could form a government.   Does that mean that you and I, that New Zealanders, want to see a government installed tomorrow comprised of Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Māori? I don't believe so. I think what the polls are telling us is that people want to see action, they want to see results. Like kids in the back of the car on a long, hot summer roadie, we want to know if we're there yet.   For those with mortgages and children and businesses to run, it has been a long, tough three years. We're tired of scrimping. We're tired of barely getting by and making do. We're tired of having a knot of tension constantly in our stomachs that comes from living so precariously.   The Prime Minister keeps telling us economic growth is the key to turning things around. We're going as fast as we can. But things are changing, things are going to get better. Just like Dad driving the car, he's sick of telling us that yes, we're nearly there but we’ve still got a nasty, windy bit to come. For God's sake, kids. I'm going as bloody fast as I can, as safely as I can. And what thanks does he get from the whining kids in the back? None.   National issued a pledge card in the lead up to the ‘23 election. Lower inflation and grow the economy. Check and in progress. Tax cuts. Check. Build new roads. Yep. Tackle gangs, introduce boot camps. Yep. Lift school achievement. Well TBC but certainly making the right noises and going in the right direction with the new school curriculum. Cut health waiting times, give Kiwis access to more cancer treatments. Don't know about the waiting times, but the new cancer treatments have been signed off. Support seniors and deliver net zero by 2025. So far on track.   And Luxon can say for heaven's sake, people, I'm doing the best I can, I'm doing what I said I would do. But then we have all the distractions and the simmering resentments. The Treaty Principles Bill, that ferry debacle, I mean, we used to give Labour gyp for announcements of announcements – that was the king of all announcements of announcements. We've got David Seymour and then we've got the platitudes from the Prime Minister.   I don't know how many times he can say I get it, it's tough, I hear you, we're working on it, we've got a really good discussion group coming. Then you see Trump come into office and then with a couple of hours, he does what we wanted the new government to do. They still haven't done it and it's been over a year – Trump does it in a matter of hours.   And so we grizzle. And so we moan like the kids in the back of the car. And the Prime Minister, dad the driver, seethes with resentment. I'm going as fast as I can and it'll be great when we get there, you ungrateful wretches. And in the meantime, the opposition parties, who if I'm going to stretch the analogy even further, are the hoons in the lane outside of us, in their unregistered car, not licensed to drive. They toot the horn, give us the fingers and think I wonder when those kids will want to get in the car with us. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kerre Woodham speaks to NZ Herald Business Editor at Large, Liam Dann, to explain how the changes to foreign investor visas will grow our economy. LISTEN ABOVE.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kerre Woodham speaks to NZ Herald Business Editor at Large, Liam Dann, to explain how the changes to foreign investor visas will grow our economy. LISTEN ABOVE.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The government, as you will have heard, is relaxing immigration settings to encourage migrants to invest in New Zealand businesses. While everyone was at the beach yesterday making the most of the golden weather the Prime Minister was suited and booted and spelling out the changes to the Active Investore Plus (AIP) visa category to the Auckland Business Chamber. The way it works is that there will be two “simplified” investment categories that will replace the existing “complex waiting system”, as set up by Labour. From April 1, the visa will be split into two categories: Growth and Balanced. The growth category applies to those making “higher- risk investments”, including those directly in local businesses and will require a minimum investment of $5 million for a period of at least three years. Visa holders in this category would have to reside in New Zealand for a minimum of 21 days. Not a long time. The balanced category focuses on mixed investment, allows for a minimum spend of $10 million over five years, and requires 105 days spent in New Zealand with the potential to get reductions if investments exceed $10 million. Several other changes have been made, including the stripping away of the visa's English language requirement, which demanded applicants have an English language background. Christopher Luxon said yesterday that the requirement had scared off many potential investors in recent years and the numbers certainly seem to support that. Since 2022, migrants entering New Zealand under the investor category have invested just $70 million. By contrast, in the two years prior to Covid-19 migrants invested $2.2 billion. There’s a hell of a difference. However, Labour says by dumbing down the rules for the investor visa risks watering down the economic benefits for New Zealand. In his press release, Phil Twyford says “allowing people to buy residence by parking their money in a passive investment like property that won't generate jobs or sustainable economic development for New Zealand does not sit well”. And I guess that's the rub. Is it going to generate real jobs? Is it going to generate real growth? Or is it just going to be money washing around in the system? Simon Bridges talking to Andrew Dickens on Early Edition says it's a good move and most people don't realise just how important foreign investment is to the growing of the economy.  “If you look at the results over time, under more permissive settings if you want to say that, the results pretty clear ... a lot of very wealthy came and I think history shows they invested in our best companies, our golf courses, they made bequeaths to our art galleries, they had an oversized contribution to New Zealand. Then we tightened them up, I think it was under the last Labour government. And we saw less of that right? You know, I think possibly New Zealanders don't quite understand how much good investment migrant settings can be really important to our economic success and we sure as hell need that at the moment.” Well, we certainly do. We certainly do need that kind of investment, but I think Simon Bridges from the Auckland Chamber is probably quite right. I don't understand how foreign investment is going to grow our economy. I can understand how bringing money in and just using it as an investment opportunity to offset your other investments if you're a wealthy foreign investor just allows you to slush money around. How does it grow it?  It is it going to be the next Rocket Lab or the next Xero. How? Art galleries and golf courses are all very well and good, but they're lovely, gorgeous vanity projects and gifts to New Zealand from wealthy investors that don't really generate jobs. Where's the benefit to the ordinary Kiwi?  So the government has banged the sign on the shop door and is sitting about telling the world we are open for business. But what sort of business? You know, where is it going to franchises? It going to nail bars? Is it going to fast food? Is it just money going round and round in a continual cycle within the economy? How do we ensure it's going into these businesses where we've got brilliant Kiwi entrepreneurs, brilliant startup businesses that need that extra capital to go to that next level? How do we direct it there? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The news that Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown is heading to China today on the country's first state visit, where he's expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership with China, has come as news to our Foreign Minister, news to our government, and indeed news to some of the Cook Island people.   The excellent Barbara Dreaver on 1News broke the story on Wednesday night. As she reported, the impending visit has taken the Beehive by surprise, as it's a potential breach of constitutional arrangements between the Cook Islands and Aotearoa New Zealand.   This year the Cook Islands celebrate 60 years of self-governance in free association with New Zealand. That means that they're free to make their own moves on policies and partnerships at home and abroad, while enjoying the benefits of a New Zealand passport and citizenship, plus substantial investment and aid. But with any perks come responsibilities under the long-standing agreement. The nations must cooperate and consult on any issues of defence and security, and they have to advise each other of any risks to either state. And it would appear that the detail of the arrangements has not happened in this particular case, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters, who spoke to Mike Hosking this morning:   “I believe they've got all these other things about beliefs, principles, freedom, human rights – these are fundamentals that the Cook Islands people are also concerned about, as they are around the Pacific. They need to know what's happening here and as a consequence, when they make a decision, then they should be free to make it, but they have to be free to make it in the circumstances of the commitments that we made going back to Helen Clark's time and going back to 1901, where we just discuss and consult, that's where we are now. I can assure you that the New Zealand government has done its best to find out what's going on, and to say this has been discussed with us is absurdly not true.”  So the government's been blindsided, and it appears the Cook Islands people themselves have been blindsided. A protest has been planned on Parliament's first sitting of the year in Rarotonga on February 17th. Some locals told Barbara Dreaver that they fear losing the special relationship they have with New Zealand, and that will happen if the Cooks Prime Minister Mark Brown pushes ahead with his intention for them to have its own passport. New Zealand's ruled out a dual passport arrangement.  1News understands that if the Cook Islands went ahead with its own passport, anyone who applied for a Cook Islands passport would be treated as having renounced their New Zealand one. The Cook Islands, of course, are perfectly free to make their own arrangements, but so too are we. If you want your own passport, that's absolutely fine, but you don't get to have a dual passport arrangement with New Zealand.   They're also perfectly free to trade with China. We do. Brown was adamant the Cook Islands Government could go ahead with its own passport and still stay within the free association with New Zealand. He said the Cook Islands needed more development partners such as China, and the Islands already more than pulled its weight with New Zealand.   Okay, that’s his opinion. But there's two people in a relationship, and clearly Winston Peters and New Zealand feels a bit differently. If New Zealand doesn't think the Cook Islands are operating within the obligations of the agreement, there will be consequences. So they're perfectly free to make their own decisions, and we are perfectly free to respond. If it comes to a bidding war, we will always lose to China. If it comes to who can put more money into the Pacific, it's China, every single time. But when it comes to cultural connectedness, history and family, that's where New Zealand has the advantage. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Gregor Paul's story in this morning's Herald confirms what many suspected at the time: that TJ Perenara’s political statement before the haka, a rallying cry against the Treaty Principles Bill, had not been sanctioned by rugby officials. That many All Blacks, that many coaching staff, that many management, felt blindsided by the statement and that he spoke without the universal approval of his teammates, according to Gregor Paul’s story.   Perenara was playing his 89th and his final test for the All Blacks in Turin last year, and before the privilege of leading the All Blacks Haka for the final time, he gave a mihi speaking for the land, the strength of independence and the Treaty. Not the most strident political message, but a political message nonetheless. And I have absolutely no problem with people having an opinion on the Treaty Principles Bill —a strong opinion— provided the opinion is sound and nuanced and not filled with hateful, abusive language. You have your opinion for and against it – absolutely fine.   But I do think that TJ Perenara abused his position and abused the trust put in him by his teammates. You cannot lead a team haka if you don't speak for your team. If TJ had been representing New Zealand as an individual, fine. If he gave his opinion on the bill in a post-match interview, fine. But it's a shame that he put his teammates in a position of defending a political stance of his own. They might all agree with him, they might have fully supported his decision in the wording of the mihi, but he never gave them the chance to do so, according to Gregor Paul’s story. And if you cannot have a full, honest, open discussion about the Treaty Principles Bill with the band of brothers that is the All Blacks, what hope does the rest of the country bloody have?   I think it's because if you support David Seymour's bill you run the risk of being called a racist. For the record, I don't support. I made a submission against it, but that doesn't mean I support the hijacking of the haka either.   Although I'm not sure in this day and age the coalition of the perpetually aggrieved allows you to have a nuanced viewpoint. You can't have a ‘oh well, I think this, but I understand where you're coming from, but that's okay’. You just can't do that in this day and age among a certain group of people. Discussions quickly become partisan and reductive. Social media has become so binary – you're either for us or you're against us. The only thing that cohort seems to agree can be nonbinary and fluid is gender. Everything else you have to be one thing or the other, except for your gender. You certainly can't have fluid or nuanced discussions on race or Trump or Gaza or the Treaty Principles Bill. It's a shame.   Perenara is passionate and committed and articulate but clearly on certain subject he feels his way is the only way. And isn't that the problem with the world right now? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government’s shaking up social housing, yesterday announcing a plan to get Kāinga Ora back on track.  They're set to sell off high-priced homes in an effort to bring its books down, the plan including the sale of around 900 homes a year.  The money will then go to more low-cost, denser places with greater demand, as well as more single person dwellings as opposed to larger homes.   Kāinga Ora Board Chair Simon Moutter joined Kerre Woodham to discuss what the changes mean for the agency and for those in need of social housing.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We know times are tough. We know that we're in a period of rebuilding, we know that there are green shoots starting to come through. We're looking towards the end of 2025 as a time when things will turn around, when things will start to improve, and things will start to get better on a micro level in our own households, and on a macro level when it comes to the government.   But there are still sticky times ahead, and Treasury officials have released a document warning the government that “significant reforms” or “reductions to public services” will be needed in the not-too-distant future if it sticks to its current, restricted spending track. The document on forecast sets out the difficulty the Government will have in keeping to its restrictive level of spending so it can post a surplus and rebuild the Crown balance sheet (this is what a lot of National governments have to do), while also maintaining public services at existing levels.   In a column in the Herald, the writer says it paves the way for a 2026 election campaign which is likely to involve a battle on the issue of taxation and the role higher levels of tax might play in rebuilding the balance sheet without cutting the services. Of course we can become a richer nation, but that will take time. There are only a few ways the government can generate income, and it's mainly by taxing us. It can help businesses become more prosperous, more productive, and then it can clip the ticket on the way through but really, it's pretty limited in how it raises money.  So each party has a very different idea on what a fair taxation system would look like. But right now, the party that actually does have the ability to do something about tax and using it as a way of attracting foreign investment into the country is looking at lowering corporate tax rates and that, of course, would be National as the senior partner in the coalition government. Finance Minister Nicola Willis was talking with Ryan Bridge on Drive last night and she said she was looking at the settings of our company tax rate and the regulations that underpin it.   NW: Well, if you compare New Zealand with the rest of the world, we're not as competitive as we used to be. Which is to say that our corporate tax level is reasonably high when you compare it to the rest of the developed world.   NW: So looking at that, our government says okay well, what could we do to make sure the tax settings in New Zealand are supportive of businesses wanting to invest and grow. Realising that on the other side of that, you have to pay for it. Because if we're taking in less tax then we have to find other ways of getting that money so we can invest in the things that really matter —our public services— and also ensure that we're still on track to get our budget back in balance and reduce debt over time. So, as a government, we need to work through all of those questions. But the honest answer to questions we do need to be more competitive in that area.   RB: So you are looking at changing the corporate tax rate?   NW: Well, there's many different ways we can approach the tax system. One thing is the corporate tax rate, but there are also tax rules that sit underneath that, and I'm actually interested in the detail of the way the whole system works, not just the headline rate.   Yes, well I think we can say that she's looking at the lowering the corporate tax rate. And she's right, it does cost money. If you are going to take in less of the existing pie, then you'll have a reduction in income. But if the pie is bigger and bigger and bigger, you're taking less of a bigger pie, you're still going to end up with more money.   So really the key is driving productivity, driving confidence in our businesses, attracting foreign investment, all of those things that Paul Bloxham was talking about, the HSBC Economist I spoke to last week. He was commenting on the fact that now we are at the bottom 38 out of 38 in terms of performing economies, and he said we need to do all the things that we are doing right now, that this coalition government is doing right now. Attract foreign investment, get the free trade deals going, increase productivity, limit regulations so businesses can do what they do best.   I suppose it's a finely balanced thing. You've got to attract the foreign investment here so therefore you've got to make the corporate tax rate competitive, but when that pie is bigger and growing then we are all better off. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Possible corporate tax cuts could be on the way in this year's Budget.  Nicola Willis told Ryan Bridge yesterday that our corporate tax system isn't competitive enough with other countries, hinting at potential changes.  Christopher Luxon confirmed to Mike Hosking this morning that they're willing to make changes, and there's a lot of possible options.  Dentons Kensington Swan Tax Partner Bruce Bernacchi told Kerre Woodham that there is an opportunity for New Zealand to bring in increased economic activity by multinationals and other wealthy investors by doing something bold.   He says he’d like to see something a lot more bold than just dropping it down to the OECD average.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Any day now, counting down the seconds, the kids will be back at school if yours haven't gone already. And this year, maybe, hopefully, fingers crossed, will be the year that our education system gets back on track. Certainly, Erica Stanford’s bigging up the new focus on structured learning. A press release out from her office says, as schools start back for 2025, there will be a relentless focus on teaching the basics brilliantly so all Kiwi kids grow up the knowledge, skills and competencies needed to grow the New Zealand of the future. A world leading education system is a key driver to economic growth. Our future playwrights and songwriters need to have a mastery of literacy and numeracy as much as our future mechanical engineers, doctors and electricians, and so on and so forth. It's kind of a call to arms for teachers and parents from Erica Stanford. There's also an op-ed piece from a math's and statistics teacher in the Herald this morning, Peter Wills. He says, and he's looking at the failure rates for NCEA Level 1, the news that Kiwi kids did poorly in NCEA comes as no surprise.  Last month, NCEA results came out and we saw that in 2024 30% of students failed Level 1, slightly under a third of our kids could not pass basic numeracy and literacy tests associated with NECA Level 1. That was this 18% in 2023. Erica Stanford said the results were expected, that there’d be a high proportion of students who would not pass because they were putting in minimum standards. Now most countries we compare ourselves to - United Kingdom, Ireland, Singapore, the US and Australia all have numeracy and literacy tests and these have been introduced because we know it's bad, but we need know how bad it is. 30% couldn't pass NCEA Level 1 last year. So: If you don't have NCEA level 1, it's really difficult to get a decent job, to enter any kind of training. Just by passing NCEA Level 1 on average, a student earns $12K more a year and is significantly more likely to get a job and enter training. They’ve got more choices. You get an education, you have more choices. You don't have to be a brain surgeon you know, but you are still going to need basic numeracy, basic literacy to get any kind of job you want. Getting students to pass the CAA S, which is the literacy and numeracy test is a top priority for schools across New Zealand, Peter Wills says. Mercifully, though he doesn't advocate dropping standards, which you can imagine other administrations might opt for to allow more young people to pass. He says maths teachers are adamant that the standard not be lowered to compensate for low pass rates. You teach better, you teach differently. You give the kids the basic skills they need to pass. What we had before wasn't working and you know that, employers know that, parents know that. That's why so many parents are spending thousands of dollars per child every year to shore up the gaps in their children's knowledge with private tuition, or sending them to private schools. They know the state education is, and has been, sub-standard, and it's not the fault of the teachers, it's the policy wonks in the Ministry of Education, whose half baked theories? Formulated over dinner parties in Kelburn, inexplicably and inexcusably made it into the classroom. And for decades now our once world-famous education system has degraded to where it is now. 30% of kids last year not passing the most basic secondary school exam. So as we start the school year as we with a call to arms from Erica Stanford and structured learning is going to be the saviour – and let's hope it is. When it comes to employers, what are you seeing coming out of our schools at the moment? According to Peter Wills, it will be seven years before we see any benefits from structured learning. We've got concerns about our productivity, we’ve investors as you heard this morning, travelling New Zealand looking for bright young things with startup ideas. Where the hell are those bright young things going to come from if we don't embrace the structured learning and reclaim our world class education. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.