Volatility Views

Volatility Views 22: Bringing Don to the Dark SideVolatility Review: A broad market volatility review – it's been another volatile week. The market sold off in the wake of a European central bank resignation. Euro vol review – where did Mark and Don's wager close out? Do they have enough for a private island in the Bahamas? Plus, OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian gives his review of the week. Volatility Viewpoint: In this combo Volatility Viewpoint/Listener Mail segment, Mark and Don answer a question from the Options Insider Forum: "I enjoyed the conversation last week between Mark and Bob about the Volatility Feedback Effect. They mentioned that Don is not a fan of this theory and that Bob and Don have had many fights on the subject. I'm curious what Don's issues are with this concept and what he feels is the truth on the matter." Indeed, Don gets his rebuttal, and gives his two cents about the volatility feedback effect. Crystal Ball: Mark Sebastian's outlook for the coming week, as well as an outlook of S&P 500 volatility and Euro vol.

Volatility Review: A review of SPX, VIX, and pricing the weekend out. Non-farm payroll: what was the impact on vol? Euro vol review. How did Mark and Don's gentlemanly wager on three- and one-month vol fare from last week? Plus a live Vol Review from OptionPit.com's Mark Sebastian. Volatility Viewpoint: Volatility Exchange CEO Bob Krause talks inverse correlation - is this specifically to address the VIX negative correlation perception? How can we tell if the market is bullish or bearish? Skew and the somewhat controversial topic of the volatility feedback effect are also on the docket. Is the market trying to forecast future returns? As volatility rises, the market must fall, but does it work the other way as well? Listener Questions: Mark and Bob reach into the dark recesses of the mailbag. Why exactly is selling a three-month VolContract not the same as selling three consecutive one-month VolContracts? Is it analogous to the difference between writing a three-month option vs. three consecutive front-month options? Crystal Ball: An outlook of SPX & VIX. Could we pick up a free weekend on Friday? Euro vol outlook - How will the one- and three-month VolContracts fair?

Volatility Views 20: Divergence & Convergence Volatility Review: A rundown of VIX, Euro VolContracts, and the equity markets. Interestingly, we have the simultaneous expiration of both the one- and three-month products, so what does their discrepancy in implied volatility suggest? Mark Sebastian gives his volatility review. The Mail Bag: Don and Mark reach into the mail bag and answer listener questions. 1. Can gamma scalping/hedging be the cause of, or catalyst for, the recent massive down days in the market? Submitted by: Jersey Boy2. The CBOE has had S&P 500 variance contracts available since 2004. Why have VT and VA never taken off and how does VIX remain the volatility hedge of choice with all of its quirks? Submitted by: ZPF3. I'm eagerly looking forward to more guests. Who do you have on tap for future shows? Submitted by: Complete Beginner The Crystal Ball: An outlook on the Euro vol. Will there be a convergence of the one- and three-month products? Mark Sebastian looks into the crystal ball for the coming week.

Volatility Review: Volatility contracts have calmed a little - a surprise given what the recent history for the previous contacts has been. A rundown of the weekly VIX, Euro VolContracts, and the equity markets. Plus Mark Sebastian gives his volatility review. Volatility Viewpoints: Special guest Euan Sinclair author of several books including "Option Trading" and "Volatility Trading" and risk manager at Blue Fin Trading discusses measuring volatility. Euan's concept of barrier method or first exit time method vs. the standard close-to-close method.Crystal Ball: An outlook on the Euro vol; Mark Sebastian looks into the crystal ball for the coming week.

Volatility Views 18: The Chicago WayVolatility Review: Volatility has been on quite the roller coaster since the last show. A rundown of the weekly VIX/Volatility as well as the Euro Vol. Plus Mark Sebastian gives his volatility review. Volatility Viewpoint: Special guest Dan Keegan from the Chicago School of Trading discusses teaching the newest crop of traders. Commodities - the sexy world of ags and metals. Delta neutral vs. realized vol. The Crystal Ball: An outlook on the Euro Vol. Also Mark Sebastian looks into the crystal ball for the coming week.

Volatility Views 17: Busting Volatility Skew MythsVOLATILITY REVIEW: The debt ceiling deal and its effect on the market. Euro VolContracts trading on the CME. VOLATILITY VIEWPOINT: Busting Skew Myths!!!! Does the Lottery Effect actually exist? Do flaws in the Black-Scholes model create skew? Were options traders prior to 1987 completely insane? Also, an exploration of the fundamental and psychological causes of Equity/Investment skew. CRYSTAL BALL: An outlook on the weekend risk- What could happen? PLUS: Mark Sebastian gives his forecast for the coming week.

Volatility Views 16: Risk PremiumVolatility Review: Interesting week with the market not doing much, but volatility increased anyway. The market's "in a pickle" until the debt issue is resolved. July 8 was the fifth expiration for the Euro VolContract, which showed greater than 29% movement in the price during the life of the contract. The August contract has provided 16% vol movement in the first three days of the contract.Listener Mail: Mark and Don answer questions from listeners, including: Why did an option price drop as the stock price went up, and; what is a sellers' premium in options?Crystal Ball: Mark foresees no debt deal over the weekend. If anything can push VIX to 30, will this be the event that does it? Front month Euro vol likely to go lower.

Volatility Views 15: Know Your VolatilityVolatility Review: Vol gets demolished. Volatility modeling is not accurate. Range-bound volatility. Euro vol at expiration looking calmer than previous expirations.Volatility Viewpoint: Featuring Mike Cavanaugh from Know Your Options, Inc. The gang discusses the role of volatility in their collar strategies, the great VIX disconnect, self-directed trading, VolX products, and appropriate hedging techniques for different audiences.Crystal Ball: Earnings season. European debt woes. Uptick in vol for currencies, and overall volatility. Friday was the Euro VolContract expiration. August contract coming up. Euro vol abatement indicated by GARCH model.

Volatility Views 14: The Unknown World of Volatility Technical AnalysisVolatility Review: Much ado about nothing? Big steps forward and back, but where is vol going? Will the long holiday weekend pull the vigor out of the markets? Euro VolContracts see higher than usual levels of volatility.Volatility Viewpoint: Mark and Don interview Kirk Northington, author of Volatility-Based Technical Analysis, founder of Northington Trading, LLC, and Meta Swing Platform, and the man behind TradingTheInvisible.com and MetaSwing.comCrystal Ball: Volatility cannot stay this high. VIX will fall to 18 before expiration. Watch out for employment numbers on 7/8. Mark thinks that currency vol will plummet by the end of June; Don has heard interviews to the contrary.

Volatility Views 13: VIX and MoreVolatility Review: Mark, Don, and special guest Bill Luby talk about the roller coaster week of volatility and if premium sellers were artificially keeping the VIX down. They also explore whether the VIX has underperformed given recent market conditions, as well as whether the product should even be promoted as a hedging tool. Euro vol update with an inversion occurring on Wednesday.Volatility Viewpoint: Are VIX futures irrelevant? Inherent differences between realized and implied volatility. VIX as a hedge. VIX futures discussion 2.0: the other side of the coin. VIX changes wish list.Crystal Ball: Europe situation making predictions cloudy. Bill's looking for a binary market. Euro VolContract prognostications.Listener Mail: Excel questions lead to religious discussion.